HeraldLoop

Avalanche — page 2

Coin · AVAX · 200 articles
Share

Coverage, page 2

page 2 of 10

AVAX - Weekly Accumulation Outlook

AVAX is in a clear long-term falling wedge. This structure has been building since the 2021 bull market, where price created a low around $10 in summer 2021 and rallied toward $150 by November 2021. Since then, AVAX has seen some decent rallies from the lows, but the structure currently forming could signal a move closer in scale to 2021 than anything price has seen recently. The Structure I have outlined the falling wedge with solid black trendlines. Every test of the upper boundary has been taken over by sellers (red arrows), except for the December 2024 peak, which I have labeled as a false break, since price then reclaimed the upper boundary as resistance with the January 2025 rejection. I have also outlined tests of the lower boundary as support with green arrows. The Weekly RSI Bottom What I find equally fascinating is the weekly RSI. Looking back at the last cycle, it is important to understand how momentum aligned with price to form that cycle's bottom. AVAX formed its most oversold weekly RSI reading in June 2022, right after the Terra Luna collapse, printing a low of 29.47. This was the lowest the RSI would reach that cycle, but price still had slightly lower to go before AVAX formed its true cycle bottom. In November 2022, the infamous FTX collapse occurred, and at the same time, this event was helping to form the actual bottom for the broader crypto markets. I outlined this theory in a past idea you can find here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Y6R9Nd4h-BTC-Could-The-Bottom-Be-In/ What this did for AVAX's chart was help form its structural bottom. The RSI printed a higher low during the FTX collapse at 31.07, while price simultaneously printed a lower low right at the lower boundary of the falling wedge. This created a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, meaning that even though price was making a new low, the underlying selling pressure behind that low was actually weaker than the prior one. That kind of disagreement between price and momentum is one of the more reliable early signals that a downtrend is losing steam, and in this case it marked the exact starting point for AVAX's 650% rally that followed. The Setup Forming Now Something similar is forming in the charts today. Price has once again started holding the lows of the weekly falling wedge (green arrows), and the RSI is beginning to show a very similar reading to last cycle. The RSI created its bottom once again right at oversold territory, printing a weekly reading of 29.34. Since then, both the RSI and price have continued climbing. Now one of two things is likely to happen. Either momentum continues gaining strength and breaks above the solid black trendline, kicking off the bull market directly, or price creates another low or lower low at the trendline while the RSI forms yet another higher low, producing the same type of bullish divergence that kicked off the bull market last cycle. The Targets Either way, once AVAX is able to break out of its current range, it should push back toward the top of the wedge around $20 by January 2027. From there, it will come down to whether it has the strength to break above the upper boundary of the wedge entirely. That is when the kind of explosive gains witnessed in 2021 could occur once again.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept