World: Locust Watch: Seasonal precipitation predictions in the Desert Locust summer and winter breeding areas (October 2026–March 2027) (20 September 2026)
Countries: World, Algeria, Chad, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Oman, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Tunisia, Yemen Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Please refer to the attached file. The dynamical models indicate above-normal rainfall across most of northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East from October through December, consistent with previous strong El Niño episodes. Within this region, drier-than-normal conditions are expected to emerge across North Africa by December, but elsewhere the wet pattern is likely to persist through winter. The only notable change in the forecasts this month is that the predicted wet anomaly is somewhat less pronounced in East Africa, and the forecast has also turned drier for Yemen and Oman, because the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is struggling to become established, and a less positive IOD favors relatively drier conditions around the northwestern Indian Ocean during El Niño. Nevertheless, the pronounced El Niño forcing will remain the dominant (wet) influence. These rainfall patterns can support breeding in the northern Sahel through late summer breeding season. Small-scale breeding may begin in October along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts. Precipitation
ReliefWeb•Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations21 Sept