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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 888 WTNT21 KNHC 220840 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 33.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 33.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N 35.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.8N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 43.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.1N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 33.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)22 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 220233 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ADAMS

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)22 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Fay is feeling the effects of strong west-northwesterly wind shear tonight. Nearly all of the convection is displaced well to the east of the fully exposed low-level center, and low-level water vapor imagery shows dry air enveloping much of the system. Recent objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased over the past several hours and range from 25-38 kt. Based on the degraded satellite presentation and the downward trend in intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving southwestward, or 215/07 kt, along the southeastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered west of the system. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west is expected over the next few days as the ridge strengthens and expands eastward across the central Atlantic. The official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the HCCA solution. Continued weakening is expected on Tuesday as dry mid-level air wraps around the periphery of Fay. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggests that Fay may struggle to maintain organized convection as early as Tuesday, and the system could become post-tropical by that time. However, the strong upper-level trough currently producing significant wind shear over the region is forecast to lift away from Fay over the next day or so, while the cyclone may move over slightly warmer waters in the coming days. These changes could briefly allow for some shallow convection to redevelop around midweek, although any such resurgence is expected to be short-lived. Given the overall unfavorable environment and anticipated weakening, the latest NHC forecast shows Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 32.3N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)22 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 33.1W ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 33.1 West. Fay is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-southwest then west is expected through midweek. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Adams

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)22 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 33.1W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 33.1W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 32.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 33.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ADAMS

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)22 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 212036 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear has been affecting Fay today, with most or all deep convection being displaced well east of the well-defined low-level center. Scatterometer data suggest that the peak winds have diminished to near 40 kt, which will be the advisory intensity estimate. Global model forecasts show that a strong upper-level trough will shift eastward away from Fay during the next day or so. This will likely lessen the wind shear over the system by late tomorrow. However, the Decay-SHIPS guidance indicates that the cyclone should be ingesting drier air during the next few days. This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model, which shows the system losing most of its associated deep convection during the next 48 hours or so. Therefore the NHC forecast shows Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by tomorrow night, and this event could occur even sooner than that. Fay is moving slowly south-southwestward along the eastern side of a mid-level high. The cyclone is expected to turn southwestward and then westward around the southern portion of the high until dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to the previous few NHC forecasts. This is also in good agreement with the latest GFS prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 33.1N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)21 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 212035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)21 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 212034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...FAY GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 32.2W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 32.2 West. Fay is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a gradual turn toward the southwest and west is expected during the next few days Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)21 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 212034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 32.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)21 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 211452 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)21 Sept
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 211452 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Fay continues to be affected by strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear. Practically all of the deep convection is confined to a band of showers and thunderstorms located well to the east of the well-defined low-level center. Using a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates, the advisory intensity is reduced to 45 kt. Global model simulations show a strong upper-level trough shifting eastward from Fay during the next day or two. This evolution would allow for some relaxation of the shear, and this is also indicated by the Decay SHIPS model. However, the model guidance also indicates that the system is likely to encounter a drier low- to mid-level air mass, which should inhibit re-strengthening. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF output shows Fay's deep convection mostly dissipated during the next few days. Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, shows the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by 48 hours. Fay is now moving southward at around 4 kt, along the eastern side of a mid-level high. Over the next several days, the cyclone is expected turn southwestward to west-southwestward and move around the southeastern and southern periphery of the high. This should keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation later in the week. Not much change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which remains in good agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and corrected model consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 33.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)21 Sept