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IEA Sees 5.7 Million Bpd Oil Supply Plunge as Gulf Recovery Slips to 2027

The IEA just took another 1.4 million barrels per day out of its 2026 global oil supply outlook, and it no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, according to a new agency report released on Friday. Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the 4.3-million-bpd decline the agency forecast just one month ago. The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027. Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August,…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Julianne Geiger11 Sept

IEA Sees 5.7 Million Bpd Oil Supply Plunge as Gulf Recovery Slips to 2027

The IEA just took another 1.4 million barrels per day out of its 2026 global oil supply outlook, and it no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, according to a new agency report released on Friday. Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the 4.3-million-bpd decline the agency forecast just one month ago. The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027. Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August,…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Julianne Geiger11 Sept

UAE Rethinks 5-Gigawatt AI Campus After Iran Targets US Assets in Gulf

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is considering significant changes to its plans to build a massive 5-gigawatt AI data center in Abu Dhabi in partnership with U.S. tech giants, after Iran started targeting American air bases and U.S.-linked critical infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, multiple sources have told Reuters. The UAE, which aims to become not only a regional but also a global leader in AI development and computing, last year planned to build the 5-GW UAE-US AI Campus in Abu Dhabi. The sprawling campus was planned to include 5 GW of capacity…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Charles Kennedy11 Sept

Debunking the Viral Claim That America Has Only 14 Days of Oil Left

Claims have been circulating on social media that the United States has only about two weeks of oil left. The calculation appears to compare the 286.6 million barrels currently held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with roughly 20.7 million barrels per day of U.S. petroleum demand, producing a figure of about 14 days. But that does not describe how the U.S. petroleum system works, and even the units are mismatched. The SPR holds crude oil, while the 20.7-million-barrel figure represents total petroleum products supplied, a broad proxy for consumption…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Robert Rapier11 Sept

Jeff Currie Sees $5 Gasoline Before Midterms

Diesel just broke $6 a gallon nationwide for the first time in U.S. history, and Jeff Currie says $5 gasoline is likely to land before midterms.  The founder and CEO of Real Macro, who spent more than a decade running Goldman Sachs’ commodities research desk, told Bloomberg Television on Friday that the odds of average U.S. gasoline hitting $5 a gallon before the November midterms are “extremely high.” AAA data released the same day put the national diesel average at $6.0556, a record that’s up 14 percent in a month…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Michael Kern11 Sept

Vostok Oil: One Tanker, Four Trillion Rubles

Every headline number behind Vostok Oil — from the tanker fleet and shipping target to the resource base and flagship well — has failed to survive contact with what Rosneft has actually drilled, built, or shipped. Four trillion rubles into the project, Rosneft has filled a single tanker. The Valentin Pikul spent 84 days moored at Bukhta Sever's single loading berth before its cargo was loaded for the run to China along the Northern Sea Route. Its sister ship, the Akademik Gubkin, is right behind it. Rosneft's own operating plan calls…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Editorial Dept11 Sept

Energy Aspects: Oil Market Has Reached an "Inflection Point"

Crude oil prices are poised for further increases and the trending trajectory is higher, as global inventory drawdowns have accelerated and China is back to buying significantly higher crude oil volumes than in the spring, Energy Aspects founder and market intelligence director, Amrita Sen, told CNBC on Friday. The intensified shipping risks in the Middle East with tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi threat in the Red Sea are hampering crude oil supply to Asian refiners. If Hormuz cancellations and delays persist, the only option…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Tsvetana Paraskova11 Sept

Houthis Advance on Bab al-Mandeb as Saudi Oil Route Comes Under Threat

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Yemen's Houthis captured the Red Sea port of Mocha on Thursday, taking the approach to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea (and the Suez Canal, beyond it) to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Bab al-Mandeb is 12 miles wide and carries 6.2 million barrels of oil and refined products a day (plus ~80% of the LNG shipped north to Europe). Houthi attacks made these waters unsafe for shipping in 2024, and Suez Canal revenue fell more than 60% that year, costing Egypt $7B. Houthi forces also captured…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Editorial Dept11 Sept

WTI Breaks $100 as Middle East Supply Crisis Deepens

October WTI crude oil futures are trading at $101.26 early Friday, up $10.04 or 11.01% for the week so far. The contract traded as low as $90.87 before reaching $104.46, its strongest level since May. Last week, the market was testing whether escorted cargoes and alternate routes could keep enough Gulf oil moving to reduce the war premium. This week, tanker attacks increased around the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi energy facilities came under attack, and the supply threat spread toward the Red Sea. WTI did not break $100 because every Middle East barrel…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Editorial Dept11 Sept

Energy Aspects: Oil Market Has Reached an "Inflection Point"

Crude oil prices are poised for further increases and the trending trajectory is higher, as global inventory drawdowns have accelerated and China is back to buying significantly higher crude oil volumes than in the spring, Energy Aspects founder and market intelligence director, Amrita Sen, told CNBC on Friday. The intensified shipping risks in the Middle East with tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi threat in the Red Sea are hampering crude oil supply to Asian refiners. If Hormuz cancellations and delays persist, the only option…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Tsvetana Paraskova11 Sept

China's Crude Imports Set to Hold at 7.2 Million Bpd in September

China is on track to import roughly the same volumes of crude oil in September as it did in August, extending the trend of recovering shipments just as crude oil prices soared to above $100 per barrel again. Kpler’s preliminary vessel-tracking data puts Chinese crude imports at about 7.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for September, about the same as in August, Nikkei Asia reports. The September-arriving crude cargoes were bought at prices well below $100 per barrel, but the gradual recovery of Chinese purchases from the decade-low in June…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Tsvetana Paraskova11 Sept

Hormuz Shipping Traffic Plunges as Middle East War Escalates

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slumped to single digits on Thursday, down from a 10-day average of 15 vessels that transited the chokepoint in both directions, Reuters reports, citing preliminary vessel-tracking data by Kpler as of early Friday. Only seven vessels, two outbound and five inbound, transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, per the data, which tracks only ships with positioning systems switched on. Dark transits are believed to be much higher as vessel operators and commodity buyers prefer to switch off their…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Tsvetana Paraskova11 Sept

China’s 70% EV Target Deals Another Blow to Oil Demand

China aims to have electric and hybrid vehicles account for as much as 70% of all passenger car sales by 2030, in a massive transport shift set to further dent oil demand for road fuels. As of the end of last year, the share of the so-called new energy vehicles was 54% of all passenger vehicle sales. In the new five-year plan for the automotive industry compiled by nearly a dozen Chinese government agencies, China also targets to have 40% of new commercial vehicle sales be electric by 2030. The 70% target by 2030 could even be achieved earlier…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Tsvetana Paraskova11 Sept

AI Boom to Boost Southeast Asia’s LNG Demand

Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Southeast Asia has found a new major driver apart from the years-long efforts to switch away from coal-fired power generation. The AI boom and the data center construction in Asia are set to materially change Southeast Asia’s LNG demand outlook with a significant upside, as combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) remain the most reliable 24/7 power provider for hyperscalers amid relatively immature renewable energy-plus-batteries across the region, analysts at Wood Mackenzie say. As a result of the higher…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Tsvetana Paraskova11 Sept

Why The United States’ Belated Critical Minerals Gambit Won’t Stop China

U.S. President Donald Trump has undertaken the most aggressive federal intervention in the critical minerals and rare earth sectors ever since he returned to the Oval Office, announcing a flurry of deals as Washington desperately tries to counter China’s dominance in minerals that are powering the energy transition and AI boom. The deals included a hodgepodge of equity and debt packages with dozens of rare earths companies, with MP Materials (NYSE:MP) and U.S. Rare Earths (NASDAQ:USAR) some of the key beneficiaries. Last month, Trump unveiled…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Alex Kimani10 Sept

Higher Oil Prices Let Mexico Pull Back Billions in Pemex Support

Mexico’s government is slashing financial assistance for the state energy major by as much as 70% despite Pemex’s continued struggle to pay down debt and boost production. The decision rests on expectations that the company will benefit from the oil and gas price rally spurred by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. Per a Bloomberg report from this week, the government of Mexico sees Pemex posting a rare cash surplus of some 95 billion pesos, or around $5.63 billion, as a result of the oil price rally. Based on those expectations,…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Charles Kennedy10 Sept

OPEC Sees Oil Demand Growth Explode Sixfold in 2027

OPEC now expects global oil demand growth to jump from just 380,000 barrels per day this year to 2.36 million bpd in 2027—a more than sixfold increase in the space of a year. The cartel trimmed its 2026 demand-growth forecast in its September Monthly Oil Market Report, putting total consumption this year at 105.84 million bpd. For 2027, OPEC raised its forecast, with global demand expected to reach 108.19 million bpd. The swing is especially stark in China. OPEC expects Chinese oil demand to grow by only 10,000 bpd this year, leaving consumption…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Julianne Geiger10 Sept

OPEC Sees Oil Demand Growth Explode Sixfold in 2027

OPEC now expects global oil demand growth to jump from just 380,000 barrels per day this year to 2.36 million bpd in 2027—a more than sixfold increase in the space of a year. The cartel trimmed its 2026 demand-growth forecast in its September Monthly Oil Market Report, putting total consumption this year at 105.84 million bpd. For 2027, OPEC raised its forecast, with global demand expected to reach 108.19 million bpd. The swing is especially stark in China. OPEC expects Chinese oil demand to grow by only 10,000 bpd this year, leaving consumption…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•Julianne Geiger10 Sept

Copper Stocks Sink as White House Tariff Uncertainty Spooks Traders

Copper future and related stocks plunged on Thursday morning after a Reuters report said that the White House's "copper tariff plan stalls amid affordability concerns." The Trump administration has yet to decide whether to impose tariffs on refined copper, sending copper prices around the world to record highs this summer as physical copper flooded US warehouses. The report from the outlet: The White House has not yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs as officials juggle concerns that higher prices for the red metal could…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.com•OilPrice.com10 Sept