A Letter to Myself: Buy the Dip — Part II
We're still early.
Not early in the sense that Bitcoin was in 2012.
Early in the sense that we're watching an entirely new financial infrastructure develop in real time.
This is phase one of a global technological financial system.
Think about our parents' generation.
If they had been able to park even a fraction of their cash into some of the technologies that ended up changing the world 10–20 years later, the long-term payoff could have been significant.
But they didn't.
And that's okay.
They didn't know.
They couldn't see what the internet would become.
They couldn't have fully understood what social media, smartphones, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, or digital payments would eventually become.
We have something they didn't:
Hindsight + information + access.
We now have the privilege of participating in technologies that were previously out of reach for everyday people because we couldn't even fathom what the future would look like.
And cryptocurrency is part of that transition.
So What Is Happening Right Now?
This is why I'm paying attention to the CLARITY Act, which gets voted on tomorrow. (SEPT 15, 2026)
In the simplest terms:
The U.S. is trying to establish a rulebook for digital assets.
For years, the crypto industry has operated with significant uncertainty around questions like:
Is this a security?
Is this a commodity?
Who regulates this?
What rules do exchanges follow?
What are institutions actually allowed to do?
The CLARITY Act attempts to create clearer lines between the SEC and CFTC and establish a regulatory framework for digital assets.
That's important.
Not because one piece of legislation magically makes Bitcoin go up.
But because clarity creates confidence.
And confidence creates participation.
And participation creates liquidity.
That's the bigger picture I'm watching.
Adoption Curve
This is also where the adoption curve theory comes into play.
We're watching cryptocurrency move from something that most people couldn't explain...
to something MOST people aren't aware of...
to something people are experimenting with...
to something increasingly integrated into financial infrastructure.
Current research supports the idea that cryptocurrency adoption isn't simply about speculation; adoption is influenced by perceived usefulness, financial incentives, risk, accessibility and network effects.
And we're seeing that participation expand.
As of 2026, roughly 1 in 5 U.S. adults (19%) reported having invested in or used cryptocurrency, according to Pew Research Center.
That doesn't mean we're guaranteed to see mass adoption.
It means we're no longer talking about a technology being used by a handful of people on the internet.
It's here.
The question is how large the network becomes.
And Then There's Government
Regardless of sentiment, here's the play I'm watching:
The infrastructure is being built.
The U.S. established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile in March 2025. The executive order directed the government to maintain forfeited BTC in the reserve and created a framework for managing other government-held digital assets.
That doesn't mean the government is buying every altcoin.
It doesn't mean every cryptocurrency succeeds.
It doesn't mean prices only go up.
It means digital assets are increasingly being treated as part of the financial and technological conversation at the highest levels.
This isn't just a financial race.
It's a technological one.
Countries are competing for the future of money, payments, computing, energy, and digital infrastructure. And the U.S. has made it increasingly clear that it wants to remain a major player in that system.
At the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Donald Trump spoke directly about this vision, saying he wanted the United States to become the “crypto capital of the planet” and the “Bitcoin superpower of the world.” He also pledged to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and retain the government's existing Bitcoin holdings.
Whether you agree with the politics or not, the signal is there.
Are you paying attention?
The conversation has shifted from:
“Is crypto real?”
to:
“Who is going to lead the digital financial system?”
That's the war most people don't even realize we're participating in.
And my thesis is simple:
I want to be positioned while that system is still being built — Early Majority — not after everyone finally understands what it became — Laggards.
🔄 Elliott Wave Structure — Strength in Numbers
Now let's bring this back to the chart.
My thesis is that we're observing a 1–5 multi-year impulse wave, followed by an A-B-C corrective phase.
Impulse 1–5
The larger trend direction.
Up.
ABC Correction
A retracement after a major trend leg.
A: First leg down
B: Bounce / retracement
C: Final leg down
My interpretation is that we're currently experiencing an ABC retracement within a larger uptrend.
In other words:
The market can correct without the entire thesis being broken.
A correction doesn't automatically mean the cycle is over.
It means we're watching the market determine where the next level of demand comes from.
We're also approaching the 200-day moving average, which I'm watching as an important rolling support/resistance area.
Not because one indicator can predict the future.
But because price + structure + fundamentals + liquidity give us a better picture than any one signal by itself.
So What's My Strategy?
DCA.
Dollar-cost averaging.
Buy strength.
Buy weakness.
Build the position over time instead of trying to perfectly predict the bottom.
Because I don't know where the exact bottom is.
And neither does anybody else.
The goal isn't to win every trade.
The goal is to remain positioned.
That gives us a disciplined strategy rather than an emotional one.
💰 The Money Flow Cycle
Here's another theory I've been watching:
Large Caps → Mid Caps → Small Caps → Micro Caps
Historically, capital can rotate through different areas of the crypto market as risk appetite changes.
BTC establishes direction.
Then large-cap assets can respond.
Then capital can move further down the risk curve.
But here's the important part:
The further down the market-cap ladder you go...
the more risk you're taking.
Higher potential reward comes with higher potential downside.
So don't confuse "more upside potential" with "better investment."
They're not the same thing.
And That's Why I'm Still Watching VET
Personally, I'm still heavy on #VeChain.
Not because I think it's guaranteed to outperform.
And not because I'm trying to convince anybody else to buy it.
It's simply part of my personal thesis.
I've watched VET survive multiple market environments and have made a huge portion of my profits from this project alone.
My thoughts: if it's not broken, why would I try to fix it?
It's an established Layer-1 network with an emphasis on enterprise use cases and sustainability, and its relatively low unit price makes it psychologically interesting to retail investors.
But here's the part people need to understand:
A coin being "cheap per coin" does NOT mean it's undervalued.
Market cap matters.
Token supply matters.
Adoption matters.
Execution matters.
And ultimately:
Price has to prove the thesis.
I've been willing to wait because I've watched BTC since 2019 and I've seen how long it can take for capital to rotate.
Sometimes the narrative moves first.
Then Bitcoin.
Then large caps.
Then the rest of the market.
Patience is part of the position.
The Bigger Picture
This is what I'm really trying to say.
I'm not sitting here pretending I know exactly what Bitcoin will be worth tomorrow.
I don't.
Nobody does.
I'm looking at something much bigger:
A financial system becoming increasingly digital.
Blockchain infrastructure.
Digital assets.
Tokenization.
Stablecoins.
Digital payments.
Institutional custody.
ETFs.
Regulatory frameworks.
Government involvement.
Global adoption.
All of these pieces are developing simultaneously.
The CLARITY Act is just one piece of that puzzle.
And tomorrow's Senate vote doesn't make or break crypto.
If the procedural vote succeeds, there are still additional legislative steps before anything becomes law.
But the fact that we're even having these conversations at this level tells me something:
We're not talking about whether crypto exists anymore.
We're talking about how crypto fits into the financial system.
That's a very different conversation.
🧠 My Thesis
My strategy has always been built around Elliott Wave Theory, but I'm not married to one way of looking at the market.
If you have another theory, model, or framework you think makes sense, drop it in the comments. I'm genuinely interested in seeing how other people are interpreting the same data.
Because the truth is:
None of us knows if we're right.
We can build the best thesis in the world and still be wrong.
That's why I'm also looking at supply and demand zones and, more importantly, the amount of time Bitcoin has historically spent inside different ranges.
Before the 2020 breakout, Bitcoin spent 1,000+ days developing in a lower range before eventually breaking into a new market regime.
Then we spent roughly another 1,000 days developing within that broader range — including the COVID-era volatility — before breaking into the zones we're currently operating in.
And now?
We're roughly 970 days into this current range.
Is that a perfect cycle?
No.
Does history have to repeat itself?
Absolutely not.
And this cycle is clearly different.
We saw a new all-time high before the halving, which broke from the historical pattern, while the macroeconomic, regulatory, institutional, and geopolitical fundamentals surrounding Bitcoin have also changed.
But that's exactly why I think it's worth watching.
Maybe we break higher.
Maybe we break lower.
Maybe the timing is completely different this cycle.
That's okay.
Because the underlying thesis doesn't depend on me predicting the exact next candle.
We're watching the continued development of a digital financial system, and I want to participate in that transition while it's still developing.
Elliott Wave is my primary framework.
Supply/demand and market structure are additional pieces of the puzzle.
I'm not trying to predict the future with certainty. I'm trying to understand it well enough to participate responsibly.
So if you have a different theory, drop it below im interested to hear your thoughts!
Let's compare ideas instead of pretending any of us know the future because we don't.
And at the end of the day, remember this:
"Time in the market beats timing the market."
— @Zaaylyfts
TITradingView Ideas14 Sept
