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Can Pfizer Outrun Its Massive Post-COVID Patent Cliff?

Pfizer stands at a strategic crossroads. COVID-19 demand has normalized hard. Comirnaty fell 34% operationally in Q2 2026, and Paxlovid fell 95%. Non-COVID therapeutics now carry the enterprise. Excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid, Q2 revenues grew 5% operationally. Launched and acquired products grew 18% operationally. Pfizer raised 2026 revenue guidance by $500 million at the midpoint to $60.5 to $62.5 billion. The raise reflects roughly $1.5 billion of better-than-expected non-COVID performance. It absorbs a $1 billion cut to COVID product expectations, now around $4 billion. Investors must judge whether new assets can replace expiring patents. Geopolitics and Strategic Licensing Biopharmaceutical supply chains depend on international relations. Western drugmakers face shifting regulatory environments across global markets. Pfizer adapts to these trade realities. The company expanded aggressively into Chinese biotech licensing. Pfizer and Innovent Biologics announced a strategic global licensing and collaboration agreement in May 2026. It covers 12 early-stage and de novo cancer medicines. The portfolio spans antibody-drug conjugates with novel payloads and multi-specific antibodies. Innovent received $650 million upfront and is eligible for up to $9.85 billion in milestones. That totals roughly $10.5 billion. Innovent also receives up to double-digit royalties on approved products. Pfizer and Innovent will share US, UK, and EU profits on four co-developed programs. The transaction closed on July 10, 2026. The deal carries a near-term cost. A $650 million Acquired In-Process R&D charge hits the third quarter. It cuts full-year adjusted diluted EPS by approximately $0.10. Macroeconomics and Financial Economics Macroeconomic pressure forces big pharma toward capital discipline. Pfizer runs two separate cost programs rather than one. The Realigning Our Cost Base Program now targets approximately $6.7 billion in net savings through 2029. Pfizer added $1.0 billion at Q2, aimed at SI&A through technology and simplification. One-time costs to achieve the addition run to roughly $2.0 billion. The Manufacturing Optimization Program now targets approximately $3.0 billion through 2029. Pfizer added $1.5 billion at Q2, focused on network structure and portfolio changes. One-time costs here total roughly $4.0 billion, about 60% non-cash. The two programs combine to roughly $9.7 billion. Pfizer invested $5.3 billion in internal R&D in the first half. It returned $4.9 billion in dividends, or $0.86 per share. No share repurchases have been completed in 2026, with $3.3 billion of authorization remaining. The company is prioritizing de-levering over buybacks. Business Models and Patent Cliffs Key blockbusters face expirations this decade. Guidance already assumes roughly $1.1 billion of unfavorable revenue impact from recent and expected generic and biosimilar competition. Pfizer counters through licensing and acquired oncology assets. The Seagen integration expanded its antibody-drug conjugate pipeline. The acquired portfolio is not growing uniformly. Padcev led with 23% operational growth globally and 21% growth in the US. Adcetris fell 23%, Tukysa fell 11% in the US, and Tivdak fell 21% in the US. Across the four Seagen-origin oncology products, US sales grew roughly 4% year over year. The ADC thesis also took a direct hit this quarter. Sigvotatug vedotin failed to show a statistically significant overall survival improvement versus docetaxel in the Phase 3 SigVie-002 study. Pfizer recorded $3.8 billion in IPR&D impairment as a result. A further $525 million impairment followed on Oxbryta. Total non-cash intangible impairments reached $4.3 billion and produced a reported loss per share of $(0.04). Elsewhere, the portfolio delivered. Eliquis grew 19% operationally, Lorbrena 37%, and the Vyndaqel family 8%. Management, Leadership, and Corporate Culture Albert Bourla serves as Chairman and CEO. Management prioritizes rapid clinical development and portfolio reallocation. Corporate culture shifts from legacy primary care toward oncology and obesity. The finance function is in transition. Dave Denton stepped down as Chief Financial Officer and left on August 15, 2026. Cecile Guegan became Interim CFO on August 16. Pfizer is running an internal and external search for a permanent successor. Adjusted R&D expenses rose 12% operationally in Q2, driven by oncology and obesity candidates. Adjusted SI&A expenses fell 3% operationally. The spending mix reflects the stated strategy. High-Tech Science, Cybersecurity, and Vaccines Pfizer is integrating AI across discovery and operations. The company also flags AI risk directly, including flawed model outputs and the possibility that anticipated savings from automation may not arrive on schedule. The Lyme disease vaccine result is genuinely mixed. The candidate is now PF-07307405, or LB6V, formerly VLA15. Topline Phase 3 VALOR results arrived on March 23, 2026. Efficacy reached 73.2% from 28 days post-dose 4 in season 2, with a confidence interval of 15.8 to 93.5. Fewer cases accrued than anticipated. The pre-determined criterion required a confidence interval lower bound above 20. The primary endpoint analysis did not meet it. A second pre-specified analysis showed 74.8% efficacy with a lower bound of 21.7 and did clear the bar. Pfizer is planning regulatory submissions on that basis. Elsewhere in vaccines, a 25-valent pneumococcal candidate entered a pivotal Phase 3 pediatric program in May 2026. A 35-valent adult candidate is expected to enter clinical development by the end of 2026. Cybersecurity remains an operational priority. Pfizer cites risks from nation-state actors and adversarial AI techniques. Robust defenses protect proprietary data and trial information.

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

#ILVUSDT Forming Bullish Momentum !

#ILV The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe; it has reached the lower boundary and appears poised for a rebound. A retest of this boundary is expected, supporting an upward move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish trend, but an upward breakout is likely due to oversold conditions on the 1-hour chart. There is initial support at the price level of 2.00. A key support zone (marked in green) exists at 2.51; the price has rebounded from this area multiple times, making it a strong support level. The price is moving toward the 100-period moving average, which it is currently approaching; this supports a potential rise. Entry Price: 3.30 Target 1: 3.40 Target 2: 3.53 Target 3: 3.70 Stop Loss: At the green resistance zone. Remember this simple rule: capital management. If you have any questions, please leave a comment. Thank you.

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

XAUUSD 1H Breakout and Pullback Strategy

Hello traders, Gold is currently trading in a range. I have two clear scenarios based on breakout and pullback. I will only enter after confirmation. Key Levels Resistance 1: 4,366.90 Resistance 2: 4,498.80 Support 1: 4,234.59 Support 2: 4,101.91 Scenario 1 Bullish Breakout If price breaks above 4,366.90 with a confirmed close, wait for a pullback to retest it as support. After bullish confirmation, enter long. Entry: On pullback to 4,366.90 after confirmation Stop Loss: Below 4,300 Target 1: 4,420 Target 2: 4,498.80 Invalidation: Price closes back below 4,366.90 Scenario 2 Bearish Breakdown If price breaks below 4,234.59 with a confirmed close, wait for a pullback to retest it as resistance. After bearish confirmation, enter short. Entry: On pullback to 4,234.59 after confirmation Stop Loss: Above 4,280 Target 1: 4,150 Target 2: 4,101.91 Invalidation: Price closes back above 4,234.59 Pro Tips 1 Do not chase the breakout. Always wait for the pullback. 2 The pullback gives a better entry with lower risk. 3 Confirm the retest with price action on lower timeframes. 4 Patience is key. My Personal View Above 4,366.90 with a pullback equals long to 4,498.80. Below 4,234.59 with a pullback equals short to 4,101.91. I will wait for the market to show its hand first. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Tags XAUUSD Gold Breakout Pullback SupportAndResistance PriceAction TradingView

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

SOL ELLIOT WAVE

Seeing CRYPTOCAP:SOL push back to $100.xx and feeling the urge to FOMO buy? Take a step back and look at the market structure: 📌 TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN Wave (B) Corrective Push: Today's bounce from $96.83 is a textbook Wave (B) corrective retest, currently testing the 0.5 ($100.28) – 0.618 ($101.32) Fibonacci retracement cluster. Confluence Resistance: The descending channel trendline combined with heavy overhead supply blocks continues to cap any further upside momentum. Key Invalidation Level: As long as price remains below $106.93, the primary Bearish Impulse count pointing toward lower demand zones remains fully active. 💡 SPOT TRADING ACTION PLAN AVOID BUYING AT $100.xx: This is a No Man's Land. Buying inside Wave (B) offers a terrible Risk-to-Reward ratio. IDEAL BUYING SETUPS: Discount Scenario: Patiently wait for Wave (C)/(5) to complete near the main demand zone at $89.75 – $86.73. Breakout Scenario: Wait for a confirmed 4H candle close above $107.50 before flipping fully bullish. Protect your USDT/FDUSD cash position and let the market confirm its true direction! 🛡️ #Solana #SOL #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #ElliottWave #BinanceSquare

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

DeGRAM | NZDUSD remains under descending resistance

📊 Technical Analysis ● NZDUSD remains inside a clear descending structure, with the major resistance line continuing to cap recovery attempts. Price is also trading below the broken support line, which is now acting as additional resistance and keeps the broader 1H structure bearish. ● The current rebound could extend toward the 0.5752–0.5764 resistance zone. If sellers defend this area, another decline toward the 0.5690–0.5700 target zone becomes the main scenario. A sustained breakout above resistance would weaken the bearish setup. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● The U.S. dollar remains supported after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% and signaled that further tightening may be needed as inflation remains elevated. Strong August U.S. retail sales also reinforced the picture of a resilient U.S. economy, adding support to the dollar. ● New Zealand’s latest GDP data came in slightly stronger than expected, with the economy expanding 0.2% in Q2 and 2.6% year over year. That provides some support to the NZD, but the kiwi remains under pressure against the stronger U.S. dollar following the Fed’s hawkish rate move. ✨ Summary ● Bearish continuation remains the main scenario while NZDUSD stays below 0.5752–0.5764; target 0.5690–0.5700. A confirmed breakout above resistance would invalidate the immediate bearish setup. Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

LITE Surges: Why AI Investors Are Repricing Optical Networking?

AI Money Is Looking for the Next Infrastructure Theme Against a backdrop of higher rates and broad pressure on technology stocks, Lumentum (LITE) surged roughly 9.6% on September 16, making it one of the strongest performers in the S&P 500. Concerns over the sustainability of AI capital spending have recently increased, but money is not simply leaving the AI trade. Instead, investors are rotating toward infrastructure segments where orders are clearer and earnings growth is already becoming visible. Optical networking is increasingly one of those areas. As AI data centers expand, the bottleneck is no longer just GPU supply. Larger clusters require dramatically more data to move between servers, racks and data centers, accelerating the transition from 800G to 1.6T connectivity. Bandwidth, latency and power efficiency increasingly determine the performance of AI infrastructure, raising the strategic importance of optical modules, optical components and switching technologies. Compared with simply adding more GPUs, network upgrades are becoming a necessary part of the next phase of AI infrastructure investment. That is one reason optical networking stocks are attracting renewed attention. Lumentum’s Growth Is Already Showing Up in the Numbers More importantly, this story is no longer based purely on expectations. Lumentum’s latest quarterly revenue reached $1.006 billion, up 109% year over year and 24.5% sequentially. Non-GAAP gross margin rose to 50.4%, while operating margin reached 36.6%. For the next quarter, the company expects revenue of $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion, with non-GAAP operating margin rising further to between 39.5% and 40.5%. Growth is therefore no longer coming from revenue expansion alone. Profitability is improving at the same time. This puts Lumentum in a particularly important stage of its growth cycle. As higher-value products account for a larger share of revenue, incremental sales may not require proportional increases in operating costs. That creates operating leverage. If this trend continues, earnings could grow significantly faster than revenue, potentially changing how investors value the company. 1.6T and OCS Open Up a New Growth Runway At the product level, 1.6T cloud modules and optical circuit switching, or OCS, are emerging as key growth drivers. 1.6T products address the higher-bandwidth requirements of next-generation AI data centers, while OCS gives Lumentum exposure to a broader upgrade in network architecture. Management has already indicated that both businesses are beginning to contribute to growth. This also means Lumentum’s AI story is becoming broader than simply selling more optical components. If 1.6T volumes continue to rise and OCS develops into a meaningful business, the company could move further into higher-value parts of the AI data-center infrastructure stack. That could support an additional improvement in both revenue quality and margins. After the Rally, the Market Is Pricing in High Expectations The rapid rise in the share price, however, changes the key question. The main risk for LITE is no longer whether AI demand exists. It is how much future growth the market has already priced in. If hyperscaler capital spending slows, order growth weakens, or the ramp in 1.6T and OCS falls short of expectations, Lumentum’s elevated valuation could amplify downside volatility. Expectations also become harder to satisfy after a major rerating. Earlier in the cycle, evidence of stronger demand alone could support the stock. Going forward, investors are likely to focus much more closely on order growth, margin expansion and whether earnings guidance can continue to exceed expectations. The next phase therefore depends on three variables: whether 1.6T shipments continue to accelerate, whether OCS develops into a meaningful revenue contributor, and whether margins can keep pace with current expectations. If those indicators continue to strengthen, Lumentum’s valuation rerating will remain supported by improving fundamentals. If they do not, the high expectations already embedded in the share price could leave far less room for execution mistakes.

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

GOLD - Technical Analysis

The price of Gold is currently trading near its pivot point, attempting to hold below this level to initiate a downward move. Bearish Scenario: Holding below the 4327 pivot point will drive the price down toward the support levels at 4309 and subsequently 4283. Bullish Scenario: A breakout and 1-hour candle close above 4327 will shift the direction toward the resistance target at 4355. Resistance Levels: 4355 – 4375 Support Levels: 4309 – 4283

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

17.09.26 Daily Forecast

Pairs on Watch - FX:GBPCAD : Although on the higher timeframes this pair may not look the best, when you dive into the 4H and 1H you can see what price is trying to do. After FOMC yesterday price was pushed into the low and found a base, filling the small gap and now turning around on the 1H. Very simple here, an insurance entry on the 15M for the longs could be in play, with either a risk entry or reduce risk depending on what we get development wise. FX:EURJPY : Price is positioned very well for longs to step in here and the structure we are currently seeing develop could turn out to be accumulation for the buys. On the lower timeframes we do have a larger 123 to work with, which also taps into a small value area on the left. If we get a strong 1H push away from here followed by a lower timeframe stack of price, I will look for the longs into the first inflection point. The sells could still be on so unless price impulsively breaks through this area, it could be a simple 3:1 play.

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

Why I am still bearish for adobe? price action is everything

ADBE remains in a clear weekly bearish market structure, characterized by a persistent sequence of Lower Highs. From 634.59 down to 294.53, every major recovery has failed below the previous swing high, demonstrating that rallies have repeatedly been sold. The current rebound from the ~190–200 area has not yet broken the most recent major Lower High at 294.53. Therefore, this recovery can technically be interpreted as a retracement within the broader downtrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal. As long as price remains below 294.53 and continues to form Lower Highs followed by Lower Lows, the bearish structure remains intact. In my opinion, this leaves room for ADBE to move lower again. A sustained break above 294.53 would be an important structural development that could invalidate or weaken this bearish thesis. Deep technical explanation — ADBE Weekly The most important feature on this chart is not one individual red candle; it is the market structure. Notice the pattern: LH → sell-off → new low → retracement → another LH → sell-off This is the classic structure of a bearish trend. Why Lower Highs matter In an uptrend, buyers are able to push price above the previous swing high: Higher High → Higher Low → Higher High But in a downtrend, rallies repeatedly fail before reaching the previous significant high: Lower High → Lower Low → Lower High → Lower Low That is exactly what your ADBE weekly chart has been showing. The important question therefore isn't: "Can Adobe bounce?" Of course it can. The more important question is: "Can Adobe break the bearish market structure?" So far, based on this chart, that has not happened..

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

#INJUSDT — Holding the Last Fortres, Recovery or Final Break

#INJ The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe; it has reached the lower boundary and appears poised for a rebound. A retest of this boundary is expected, supporting a potential upward move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish trend, but an upward breakout is likely due to oversold conditions on the 1-hour chart. There is initial support at 4.89, acting as a preliminary support zone. A key support zone (marked in green) exists at 4.60; the price has bounced off this area multiple times, making it a strong support level. The price is moving toward the 100-period moving average—a level we are currently approaching—which supports the case for an upward move. Entry Price: 5.40 Target 1: 5.65 Target 2: 5.83 Target 3: 6.06 Stop Loss: At the green resistance zone. Remember this simple rule: capital management. If you have any questions, please leave a comment. Thank you.

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

OILUSD: Harmonic XABCD Points to Further Downside

Price was pushing upward, but momentum was already starting to fade. And now the structure has become much clearer: X, followed by A, B, C and finally D. Price completed the harmonic structure near point D around the previous resistance area. The final push into D was strong, but buyers failed to hold the highs and price quickly rejected lower. Once point D is completed and rejection begins from the reversal zone, the probability starts to favor a deeper move to the downside especially when price is already showing weakness after the final bullish leg. This is where the bearish scenario becomes more obvious. The first major downside target I’m watching is around 83.000.

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

Nasdaq range survives another test of support

Right now it looks like a waiting game for Nasdaq traders. The index has put in a string of lower highs since the record high was set in June, but since around the middle of August, price action has been largely rangebound between 29,670 on the topside and 28,875 below. More recently, the price has spent more time towards the lower end of that range. There have been multiple tests of 28,875, along with a couple of false breaks below it, but none have stuck. One option is to keep playing the range. If another break below 28,875 fails and the price reverses back above the level, longs could be considered with a tight stop beneath for protection, initially targeting the minor downtrend running from the mid-August high, then 29,670. The 50-day moving average sits in between and has capped the price over recent days, including in early European trade on Thursday. At the other end, if the price moves back towards 29,670 and again fails to break higher, shorts could be established with a tight stop above for protection, targeting a retracement towards 28,875. The other option is to wait for a breakout. A break and close beneath 28,875 would provide the option to establish shorts with a tight stop above the level for protection, initially targeting 28,000, where the price did some work in late July. Beyond that, the 200-day moving average around 27,287 would come into play. If the upper end of the range were to break with a close above 29,670, longs could be considered with a tight stop beneath for protection, initially targeting downtrend resistance running from the June record high. Above that, 30,245, the swing high set on August 17, would be the next level, followed by the record high at 30,756. The oscillators had been pointing to building downside pressure, but that has since reversed on the daily timeframe. For now, it looks more like a case of letting the price action dictate the trade rather than forcing a bullish or bearish bias. Good luck! DS

TITradingView Ideas22h ago
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YOUR RISK 14500

• Strategy Execution: We provide trade calls based on trendline setups. • Lot Size: The calls given are based on standard F&O lot sizes. • Stop-Loss Execution: Strictly follow the stop-loss levels. • 15-Minute Candle Close: Consider the stop-loss triggered only after a 15-minute candle closes beyond the level. • Position Sizing: Limit exposure to a maximum of two open positions at a time. • Important Note: Do not risk more than 2% of your capital per trade.

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

XAUUSD — Post-Fed FVG Repricing Buy Setup

Gold is trading around $4,320 after a highly volatile post-FOMC session. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% and signaled that additional tightening may still be needed, pushing the U.S. dollar to a seven-week high and lifting short-term Treasury yields. Despite that hawkish backdrop, Gold recovered more than 1% from the post-Fed low as traders reassessed positioning and oil prices eased from recent highs. Brent crude has also pulled back toward $104, reducing some of the immediate energy-driven inflation pressure, although broader Middle East risks remain elevated. SMC View H1 price remains inside the broader descending channel, so the higher-timeframe structure is not fully bullish yet. However, the latest move swept buy-side liquidity near $4,350–$4,360, delivered a strong bearish displacement, and then reacted sharply from the lower portion of the channel. The current rebound may represent bullish repricing after that liquidity event. The nearby FVG around $4,285–$4,305 is the key mitigation area to watch. A controlled pullback into this imbalance, followed by a bullish MSS or CHOCH, could confirm that buyers are rebuilding short-term order flow toward the upper liquidity zones. Main Trading Scenario Buy Priority: $4,285–$4,305 Condition: Wait for Gold to retrace into the FVG / discount area and form bullish rejection, followed by a lower-timeframe bullish MSS or CHOCH. Entry: $4,285–$4,305 after confirmation SL: Below $4,260 and the reaction low TP1: $4,345–$4,365 TP2: $4,390–$4,405 Key Zones to Watch $4,401.403 — Premium Bearish OB $4,345–$4,365 — Reclaimed buy-side liquidity / resistance $4,285–$4,305 — Main FVG buy zone $4,225–$4,245 — External SSL / Deep Discount Demand $4,260 — Immediate bullish invalidation area Descending channel resistance — Major structural barrier Prime Gold View The buy bias is focused on confirmed repricing from the FVG, not chasing the current recovery. If buyers defend $4,285–$4,305 and produce a clean bullish structure shift, Gold could rotate back toward $4,350–$4,365, with the $4,400 Premium Bearish OB becoming the larger upside objective. The broader channel remains bearish, so confirmation is essential before treating the recovery as sustainable. No confirmation, no trade.

TITradingView Ideas22h ago

Shooting Star Through Liquidity Could Signal Exhaustion

Diagonal liquidity lines are often overlooked and underrated. However, with some creative thought and imagination, they can hold significant value. I have plotted some liquidity lines on the OTHERS 2W chart showing how these trend lines can catch interesting moves. The previous 2W candle closed with a shooting star through high liquidity, on both horizontal and diagonal resistance. This may be a valuable clue here that the leg up could be exhausted. OTHERS is showing a massive H&S pattern that appears to be structurally complete; price has tested the neck line three times and has made an advance, but I wouldn't call the bearish pattern complete. A decisive break below the neck line would suggest further retracement down. While support above resistance (blue trend line) could suggest a higher move up. Log Mode OFF With log mode off, we can see the same outcome here; shooting star through high liquidity. https://www.tradingview.com/x/QFTQdFEZ/ If structure finds support above the trend line, this could suggest another leg up. It's also possible that it makes a decisive break. However, with the 2W wicks through liquidity, it suggests trend exhaustion over the anticipation of another major leg up. Good Luck! -Not Financial Advice-

TITradingView Ideas22h ago