XAUUSD — 4,257 Hold or 4,214 Sweep?
Gold is trading around 4,273 after extending the M30 decline below yesterday’s reaction support.
Price remains under the descending trendline, while the latest recovery attempt failed to create a meaningful structure shift.
Macro pressure is also still heavy ahead of the Fed decision, with elevated yields, a firm dollar and higher oil prices keeping Gold under pressure.
But price is now moving closer to the lower reaction zones.
And this is where chasing the sell becomes less attractive.
The reaction is the signal.
The simple read
M30 structure remains bearish below the descending trendline.
The latest bounce reached the 4,31x area but failed below the major resistance zone around 4,319.
Price has now moved back below the 0.618 Fibonacci level near 4,277 and is approaching the 0.786 area around 4,267.
The first important support sits around 4,253–4,257.
This area combines the previous swing low, Fib completion and visible reaction demand.
A clean buyer response here could create a temporary recovery.
But support is not an automatic buy.
If 4,257 fails, the chart leaves room for a deeper liquidity sweep toward 4,214.
That lower zone aligns closely with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and is the stronger downside reaction area on this M30 structure.
On the upside, 4,285 is the first small recovery test.
The bigger level is still 4,319.
This area combines resistance with the descending trendline and remains the key seller decision zone.
Key price zones
Current price area: 4,273
Immediate Fibonacci reaction: 4,267–4,277
Main support / buy reaction zone: 4,253–4,257
Deeper liquidity zone: around 4,214
First recovery resistance: around 4,285
Main resistance + trendline: around 4,319
Major upper supply: around 4,398
Trading plan
Buy reaction scenario
If Gold reaches 4,253–4,257:
I will watch for sellers to lose momentum and buyers to show a clear reaction.
A confirmed recovery can first reopen 4,277–4,285.
If price then breaks the descending trendline, 4,319 becomes the next important test.
But I will not buy simply because price touches support.
Sell reaction scenario
If Gold recovers toward 4,285 or especially 4,319 and rejects:
The bearish M30 structure can remain intact.
A failed recovery may send price back toward 4,257.
Breakout scenario
If Gold breaks the trendline and can hold above 4,319:
The short-term structure changes significantly.
That would improve the recovery case and shift attention toward the higher resistance zones.
Breakdown scenario
If 4,257 cannot hold:
I would watch for the deeper liquidity move rather than chase the breakdown.
The next major reaction zone becomes 4,214.
A sweep into that area followed by a strong reclaim could create a much cleaner recovery structure.
The trend is still bearish.
But price is getting closer to support.
4,257 is the first buyer test.
4,214 is the deeper liquidity test.
4,319 is the real recovery confirmation level.
TITradingView Ideas15 Sept