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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 5

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Chronological coverage

  1. Today
  2. Latest41m ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2026 09:22:53 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  3. Follow-up1h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2026 08:36:10 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  4. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up1h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 17

    Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 240835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 Convection has continued to burst in pulsing bands around the low-level circulation of Fay this morning. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain around 30-35 kt, which is consistent with the scatterometer pass from the previous advisory. Based on these estimates and the relatively steady state of the convective organization, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The storm is estimated to be moving at an estimated motion 270/6 kt. A generally westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected to continue during the next few days while Fay is steered along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to the north. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, as the track model guidance remains tightly clustered. Fay is traversing sea surface temperatures around 27-28C in an environment of low vertical wind shear. However, the system is embedded within a dry air mass, which should prevent significant strengthening. In about 24-48 hours, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should cause the system to gradually weaken and limit deep convection. At that time, Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 29.8N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 29.6N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 29.6N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  5. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up1h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

    Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 240834 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  6. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up1h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 17

    Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 240834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...FAY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 40.5W ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 40.5 West. Fay is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  7. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up1h ago

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 9:00 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 the center of Fay was located near 29.8, -40.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  8. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up1h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 17

    Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 240833 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.5W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.5W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.8N 43.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.6N 44.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.6N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 40.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  9. Follow-up7h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2026 02:40:31 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  10. Follow-up7h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 21:22:54 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  11. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up7h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 16

    Issued at 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 402 WTNT41 KNHC 240238 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 Deep convection has persisted since the previous advisory, especially to the north and northeast of the surface center. Recent microwave and geostationary satellite data indicate fairly good confidence that the center is near the southern or southwestern edge of the convection. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate is 2.5/35 kt and recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33-42 kt. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 23/2300 UTC showed several reliable 32 kt wind vectors. Given the low bias of the ASCAT instrument due to its resolution, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, in agreement with the TAFB estimate, making Fay a tropical storm again. The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 250 degrees at 8 kt. Fay is expected to continue moving generally westward for the next few days as it is steered by a narrow low- to mid-level ridge to its north, although a deceleration is expected in a couple of days as steering currents weaken. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to, but slightly faster toward the west than, the latest GDMI and HCCA. Confidence in the NHC track forecast appears to be above average due to good agreement among the track models. Fay is forecast to remain over warm water and within a weak vertical wind shear environment for another 36 hours, but the dry airmass that Fay is embedded in, with mid-level relative humidity values between 30 and 40 percent, should prevent significant strengthening. The NHC forecast shows little change in strength while the shear remains weak. By 48 hours, increasing northeasterly vertical wind shear should work to induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is a little higher than the previous one, in that it shows a more gradual weakening in the 36 to 72 hour period. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, and forecast confidence is medium to high. No changes have been made to the timing of post-tropical transition or dissipation, but it should be noted that the UKMET and Canadian models hold onto the low a bit longer than indicated in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 29.8N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 29.8N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 29.9N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 29.9N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 29.7N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 29.8N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  12. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up7h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 787 FONT11 KNHC 240234 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  13. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up7h ago

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS... As of 3:00 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 the center of Fay was located near 29.8, -40.0 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  14. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up7h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 16

    Issued at 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 921 WTNT31 KNHC 240234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...FAY REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 40.0W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 40.0 West. Fay is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Hagen

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  15. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up7h ago

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 16

    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 835 WTNT21 KNHC 240233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.0W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.0W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 39.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.8N 41.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.9N 42.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.9N 43.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.7N 44.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.8N 45.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 40.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  16. Yesterday
  17. Follow-up12h ago

    Tropical Depression Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 21:22:54 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  18. Follow-up13h ago

    Tropical Depression Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 20:36:56 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  19. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up13h ago

    Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Discussion Number 15

    Issued at 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 232035 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has persisted during the day. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again. The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around 31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25 kt. Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around 260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model. The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 30.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  20. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up13h ago

    Tropical Depression Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

    Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 232035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  21. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up13h ago

    Summary for Tropical Depression Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY... As of 9:00 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 the center of Fay was located near 30.1, -39.2 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  22. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up13h ago

    Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Advisory Number 15

    Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 391 WTNT21 KNHC 232034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 39.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 39.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  23. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up13h ago

    Tropical Depression Fay Public Advisory Number 15

    Issued at 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 392 WTNT31 KNHC 232034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 39.2W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 39.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but gradual weakening should occur thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  24. 22 September
  25. Follow-up22 Sept, 20:39

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 20:39:48 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  26. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 20:37

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Discussion Number 14

    Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 222037 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Fay remains mainly comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds, although a few isolated patches of convection are occuring in the eastern semicircle. There has been no organized convection for more than 18 h, and based on this it appears than Fay has degenerated to a remnant low pressure area. There is a possibility of convective bursts occuring during the next few days. However, the cyclone will be embedded in a dry air mass with strong upper-level convergence, and these factors should keep organized convection from re-developing. The system is moving west-southwestward, or 240/8 kt, as it rounds the eastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west and northwest. A turn toward the west is expected over the next day or two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the north of Fay. A turn toward the west-northwest could occur before the remnant low dissipates between 96-120 h. This is the last advisory issued on Fay by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 30.8N 35.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/0600Z 30.2N 36.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 29.6N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 29.6N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 30.0N 46.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  27. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 20:36

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

    Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 222036 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  28. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 20:36

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Public Advisory Number 14

    Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 222036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FAY DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 35.3W ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 35.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Beven

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  29. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 20:36

    Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA... As of 9:00 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Fay was located near 30.8, -35.3 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  30. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 20:36

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Advisory Number 14

    Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222036 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 35.3W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 35.3W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 34.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.2N 36.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.6N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.6N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 30.0N 46.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 35.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  31. Follow-up22 Sept, 14:55

    Tropical Depression Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 14:55:12 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  32. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 14:47

    Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Discussion Number 13

    Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 662 WTNT41 KNHC 221447 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Fay is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no convection. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the maximum winds are now near 30 kt, and based on this the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical depression. Unless convection comes back in the next several hours, Fay should degenerate into a remnant low later today. The system is moving southwestward, or 230/9 kt, as it rounds the eastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day or two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the north of Fay. Due to a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope, the new track forecast is a little south of the previous forecast. Currently, Fay is in an environment of moderate northwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. While the dynamical models forecast the shear to subside during the next 24 h, they also forecast strong upper-level convergence over the system and continued dry air entrainment. Based on this and the model simulated satellite imagery, it appears unlikely that Fay will re-develop persistent organized convection after the shear decreases. Thus, the new intensity forecast follows the old forecast in showing a gradual weakening of the remnant low until dissipation near 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 31.1N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 29.9N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 29.4N 41.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 29.5N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 30.0N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  33. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 14:46

    Tropical Depression Fay Public Advisory Number 13

    Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221446 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 34.6W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 34.6 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west is expected through midweek. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  34. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 14:46

    Summary for Tropical Depression Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Fay was located near 31.1, -34.6 with movement SW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  35. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 14:46

    Tropical Depression Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

    Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 221446 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  36. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 14:46

    Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Advisory Number 13

    Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 221446 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 34.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 34.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 34.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.9N 37.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 39.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 41.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  37. Follow-up22 Sept, 09:23

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 09:23:03 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  38. Follow-up22 Sept, 08:43

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 08:43:07 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  39. Follow-up22 Sept, 08:42

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 03:22:51 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  40. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 08:41

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 12

    Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220841 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Deep convection associated with Fay has completely dissipated, leaving the low-level center fully exposed on satellite imagery. Given the lack of organized deep convection over the past several hours, Fay's remaining time as a tropical cyclone is limited unless convection redevelops soon. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates currently range from 25 to 44 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. The system is moving southwestward, or 230/8 kt, as it rounds the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day or two, as the ridge strengthens. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous nudged slightly towards the right, towards the GDMI and HCCA aids. A combination of moderate wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Fay to gradually spin down and weaken. Although shear may relax somewhat in a few days, as the system moves over slightly warmer sea surface temperatures, model-simulated satellite imagery suggests that any returning convection will occur only in intermittent bursts. Based on current trends and model guidance, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to gradually weaken, and become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate into an open trough by the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 31.8N 33.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.2N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 29.7N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1800Z 29.8N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 29.9N 43.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 30.1N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  41. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 08:40

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 220840 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  42. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 08:40

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Fay was located near 31.8, -33.7 with movement SW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  43. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 08:40

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 12

    Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 970 WTNT31 KNHC 220840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FAY FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 33.7W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 33.7 West. Fay is moving toward the southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west is expected through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  44. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 08:40

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 12

    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 888 WTNT21 KNHC 220840 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 33.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 33.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N 35.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.8N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 43.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.1N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 33.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  45. Follow-up22 Sept, 03:22

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 03:22:51 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  46. Follow-up22 Sept, 02:34

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:34:57 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  47. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 02:33

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 220233 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ADAMS

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  48. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 02:33

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 11

    Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Fay is feeling the effects of strong west-northwesterly wind shear tonight. Nearly all of the convection is displaced well to the east of the fully exposed low-level center, and low-level water vapor imagery shows dry air enveloping much of the system. Recent objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased over the past several hours and range from 25-38 kt. Based on the degraded satellite presentation and the downward trend in intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving southwestward, or 215/07 kt, along the southeastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered west of the system. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west is expected over the next few days as the ridge strengthens and expands eastward across the central Atlantic. The official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the HCCA solution. Continued weakening is expected on Tuesday as dry mid-level air wraps around the periphery of Fay. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggests that Fay may struggle to maintain organized convection as early as Tuesday, and the system could become post-tropical by that time. However, the strong upper-level trough currently producing significant wind shear over the region is forecast to lift away from Fay over the next day or so, while the cyclone may move over slightly warmer waters in the coming days. These changes could briefly allow for some shallow convection to redevelop around midweek, although any such resurgence is expected to be short-lived. Given the overall unfavorable environment and anticipated weakening, the latest NHC forecast shows Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 32.3N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  49. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 02:33

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 11

    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 33.1W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 33.1W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 32.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 33.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ADAMS

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  50. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 02:33

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 11

    Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 33.1W ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 33.1 West. Fay is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-southwest then west is expected through midweek. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Adams

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  51. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up22 Sept, 02:33

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 3:00 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Fay was located near 32.3, -33.1 with movement SW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  52. 21 September
  53. Follow-up21 Sept, 21:23

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 21:23:08 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  54. Follow-up21 Sept, 20:37

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 20:37:13 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  55. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 20:36

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 10

    Issued at 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 212036 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear has been affecting Fay today, with most or all deep convection being displaced well east of the well-defined low-level center. Scatterometer data suggest that the peak winds have diminished to near 40 kt, which will be the advisory intensity estimate. Global model forecasts show that a strong upper-level trough will shift eastward away from Fay during the next day or so. This will likely lessen the wind shear over the system by late tomorrow. However, the Decay-SHIPS guidance indicates that the cyclone should be ingesting drier air during the next few days. This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model, which shows the system losing most of its associated deep convection during the next 48 hours or so. Therefore the NHC forecast shows Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by tomorrow night, and this event could occur even sooner than that. Fay is moving slowly south-southwestward along the eastern side of a mid-level high. The cyclone is expected to turn southwestward and then westward around the southern portion of the high until dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to the previous few NHC forecasts. This is also in good agreement with the latest GFS prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 33.1N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  56. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 20:35

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

    Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 212035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  57. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 20:34

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY GRADUALLY WEAKENING... As of 9:00 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 the center of Fay was located near 33.1, -32.2 with movement SSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  58. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 20:34

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 10

    Issued at 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 212034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...FAY GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 32.2W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 32.2 West. Fay is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a gradual turn toward the southwest and west is expected during the next few days Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  59. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 20:34

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 10

    Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 212034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 32.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  60. Follow-up21 Sept, 15:23

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 15:23:21 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  61. Follow-up21 Sept, 14:53

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 14:53:45 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  62. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 14:52

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 9

    Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 211452 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Fay continues to be affected by strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear. Practically all of the deep convection is confined to a band of showers and thunderstorms located well to the east of the well-defined low-level center. Using a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates, the advisory intensity is reduced to 45 kt. Global model simulations show a strong upper-level trough shifting eastward from Fay during the next day or two. This evolution would allow for some relaxation of the shear, and this is also indicated by the Decay SHIPS model. However, the model guidance also indicates that the system is likely to encounter a drier low- to mid-level air mass, which should inhibit re-strengthening. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF output shows Fay's deep convection mostly dissipated during the next few days. Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, shows the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by 48 hours. Fay is now moving southward at around 4 kt, along the eastern side of a mid-level high. Over the next several days, the cyclone is expected turn southwestward to west-southwestward and move around the southeastern and southern periphery of the high. This should keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation later in the week. Not much change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which remains in good agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and corrected model consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 33.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  63. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 14:52

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

    Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 211452 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  64. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 14:51

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD... As of 3:00 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 the center of Fay was located near 33.3, -32.0 with movement S at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  65. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 14:51

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 9

    Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 600 WTNT21 KNHC 211451 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.0W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.0W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 31.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 32.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  66. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 14:51

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 9

    Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 598 WTNT31 KNHC 211451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...FAY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 32.0W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 32.0 West. Fay is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn toward the southwest and west-southwest is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay could degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  67. Follow-up21 Sept, 09:22

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 09:22:54 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  68. Follow-up21 Sept, 08:38

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:38:08 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  69. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 08:37

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 8

    Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210836 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Fay is now feeling the effects of strong vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become significantly vertical tilted, with the low-level center now well north-northwest of the mid-level center. The initial intensity is nudged down to 55 kt, which lies at the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Continued strong northerly vertical wind shear, along with intrusions of dry air should cause Fay to steadily weaken over the next few days. In fact, simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF models show deep convection completely dissipating within the next 24 hours due to the harsh atmospheric conditions. Based on the latest guidance and satellite trends, the new forecast calls for a faster rate of weakening, with the transition to a remnant low now expected by 48 hours and dissipation in 4-5 days. This forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Fay appears to have turned southward at a slow pace, as expected, as the mid- to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic lifts out. A faster southwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as a low- to mid-level ridge becomes established to the northeast of the cyclone. This pattern should keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation later in the week. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 33.8N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  70. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 08:36

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 8

    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210836 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 32.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 32.1W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 32.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 32.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  71. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 08:36

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 210836 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  72. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 08:36

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 8

    Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...FAY BEGINS TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 32.1W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 32.1 West. Fay is moving very slowly toward the south-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster motion to the southwest is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay could degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  73. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 08:36

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY BEGINS TO WEAKEN... As of 9:00 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 the center of Fay was located near 33.8, -32.1 with movement SSE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  74. Follow-up21 Sept, 03:22

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 03:22:47 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  75. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 02:41

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 7

    Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Fay is beginning to feel the effects of increasing northwesterly shear over its circulation, with satellite images showing its outflow pattern becoming restricted in that quadrant. However, an ASCAT-C pass received after the prior advisory showed a peak wind retrieval of 53 kt, and that the center was a little further south and east of what was previously estimated. Assuming some wind undersampling of this instrument along with a slight increase in the DMINT and DPRINT intensity estimates, the initial intensity is being nudged up to 60 kt for this advisory, making Fay just shy of hurricane intensity. Fay appears to have turned east-southeastward tonight, with an estimated motion of 130/4 kt. Over the next day or so, a building ridge to the northwest should continue to turn Fay southward and then southwestward with gradually increasing forward motion. The NHC track forecast this cycle was shifted a bit southward compared to the previous one, but converges close to the previous forecast track in 60-72 h. This track forecast remains in good agreement with the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids. The tropical storm is just about out of time to intensify further, though it remains possible Fay could briefly become a hurricane tonight before the northwesterly vertical wind shear becomes prohibitively strong from an amplifying upper-level ridge to the northwest. This shear will ultimately import very dry mid-level air into Fay's core, causing the cyclone to quickly decouple in the next 24-36 h. The global and hurricane-regional model guidance remains in good agreement on Fay struggling to produce organized convection by 48-60 h, and that continues to be when the NHC forecast indicates the cyclone becoming post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the prior one beyond the next 12 h, in good agreement with the intensity aid consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 34.1N 31.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 33.7N 31.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 30.8N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0000Z 29.6N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 29.6N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  76. Follow-up21 Sept, 02:39

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 02:39:09 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  77. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 02:38

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 387 FONT11 KNHC 210237 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  78. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 02:38

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 7

    Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 349 WTNT31 KNHC 210237 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...FAY NEARLY A HURRICANE BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 31.9W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 31.9 West. Fay is now moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the southwest is anticipated on Monday which should continue through the early part of this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is forecast tonight, but Fay should begin to weaken on Monday. The tropical cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by the middle of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  79. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 02:38

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY NEARLY A HURRICANE BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY... As of 3:00 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 the center of Fay was located near 34.1, -31.9 with movement ESE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  80. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up21 Sept, 02:37

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 7

    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 362 WTNT21 KNHC 210236 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 31.9W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 31.9W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 32.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.7N 31.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.8N 35.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.6N 39.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.6N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 31.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  81. 20 September
  82. Follow-up20 Sept, 21:23

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 21:23:07 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  83. Follow-up20 Sept, 20:36

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 20:36:26 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  84. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up20 Sept, 20:35

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 6

    Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202035 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 A few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in the last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery. Infrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops have cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of convection. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates. The environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for additional convective development and an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for about 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear should increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone. This will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The intensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance in the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations due to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight. Fay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with the initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This ridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC forecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI track aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 34.4N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  85. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up20 Sept, 20:34

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 202034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  86. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up20 Sept, 20:34

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 6

    Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 202034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...FAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 32.7W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 32.7 West. Fay is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) this general motion is expected to continue through the rest of the day. Afterwards a turn to the southwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, and Fay could approach hurricane intensity. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  87. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up20 Sept, 20:34

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...FAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 the center of Fay was located near 34.4, -32.7 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  88. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up20 Sept, 20:33

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 6

    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 202033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.7W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.7W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 32.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  89. Follow-up20 Sept, 15:23

    Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 15:23:10 GMT

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  90. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up20 Sept, 14:56

    Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 201456 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  91. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up20 Sept, 14:56

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 5

    Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 201456 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 Deep convection continues to build near the center of Fay over the last several hours. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 39-52 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T3.0/45 kt. In addition, there was an ASCAT pass that showed a peak wind vector of 43 kt. Given the uncertainties due to undersampling, the initial intensity for the storm has been raised to 50 kt. The cyclone continues to remain very compact with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend out to about 40 n mi. Both a relatively moist environment and positive interactions with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow Fay to further intensify for the next 12 to 24 hours. After the trough lifts on Monday, the increase in wind shear and dry air should lead to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The current NHC forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and then dissipate by the end of the week. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the model guidance in the short term to account for the storm's structure being more improved and the expected baroclinic support from the trough. This small system could approach hurricane strength later today or tonight. Fay is slowly moving off to the northeast, with the initial motion estimated around 010/5 kt. This general motion should continue for the rest of the day. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm by Monday, which will cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with HCCA and GDMI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 34.1N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  92. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up20 Sept, 14:55

    Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)

    ...TROPICAL STORM FAY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 the center of Fay was located near 34.1, -33.0 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  93. National Hurricane Center
    Follow-up20 Sept, 14:55

    Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 5

    Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 201455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM FAY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 33.0W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 33.0 West. Fay is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continues through the rest of the day. Afterwards a turn to the southwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Fay could approach hurricane intensity tonight. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
  94. National Hurricane Center
    First seen20 Sept, 14:55

    Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 5

    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 201455 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 33.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 33.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 33.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 33.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH

    National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)