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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 240835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 Convection has continued to burst in pulsing bands around the low-level circulation of Fay this morning. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain around 30-35 kt, which is consistent with the scatterometer pass from the previous advisory. Based on these estimates and the relatively steady state of the convective organization, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The storm is estimated to be moving at an estimated motion 270/6 kt. A generally westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected to continue during the next few days while Fay is steered along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to the north. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, as the track model guidance remains tightly clustered. Fay is traversing sea surface temperatures around 27-28C in an environment of low vertical wind shear. However, the system is embedded within a dry air mass, which should prevent significant strengthening. In about 24-48 hours, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should cause the system to gradually weaken and limit deep convection. At that time, Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 29.8N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 29.6N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 29.6N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)1h ago
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 240834 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)1h ago
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 17

Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 240834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...FAY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 40.5W ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 40.5 West. Fay is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)1h ago
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 240833 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.5W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.5W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.8N 43.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.6N 44.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.6N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 40.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)1h ago
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 402 WTNT41 KNHC 240238 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 Deep convection has persisted since the previous advisory, especially to the north and northeast of the surface center. Recent microwave and geostationary satellite data indicate fairly good confidence that the center is near the southern or southwestern edge of the convection. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate is 2.5/35 kt and recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33-42 kt. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 23/2300 UTC showed several reliable 32 kt wind vectors. Given the low bias of the ASCAT instrument due to its resolution, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, in agreement with the TAFB estimate, making Fay a tropical storm again. The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 250 degrees at 8 kt. Fay is expected to continue moving generally westward for the next few days as it is steered by a narrow low- to mid-level ridge to its north, although a deceleration is expected in a couple of days as steering currents weaken. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to, but slightly faster toward the west than, the latest GDMI and HCCA. Confidence in the NHC track forecast appears to be above average due to good agreement among the track models. Fay is forecast to remain over warm water and within a weak vertical wind shear environment for another 36 hours, but the dry airmass that Fay is embedded in, with mid-level relative humidity values between 30 and 40 percent, should prevent significant strengthening. The NHC forecast shows little change in strength while the shear remains weak. By 48 hours, increasing northeasterly vertical wind shear should work to induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is a little higher than the previous one, in that it shows a more gradual weakening in the 36 to 72 hour period. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, and forecast confidence is medium to high. No changes have been made to the timing of post-tropical transition or dissipation, but it should be noted that the UKMET and Canadian models hold onto the low a bit longer than indicated in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 29.8N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 29.8N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 29.9N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 29.9N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 29.7N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 29.8N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)7h ago
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 787 FONT11 KNHC 240234 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)7h ago
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 921 WTNT31 KNHC 240234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...FAY REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 40.0W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 40.0 West. Fay is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Hagen

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)7h ago
NH

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 835 WTNT21 KNHC 240233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.0W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.0W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 39.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.8N 41.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.9N 42.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.9N 43.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.7N 44.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.8N 45.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 40.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)7h ago
NH

Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 232035 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has persisted during the day. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again. The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around 31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25 kt. Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around 260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model. The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 30.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)13h ago
NH

Tropical Depression Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 232035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)13h ago
NH

Tropical Depression Fay Public Advisory Number 15

Issued at 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 392 WTNT31 KNHC 232034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 39.2W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 39.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but gradual weakening should occur thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center•nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)13h ago