XAUUSD — 4,371 Opens the Recovery
XAUUSD — 4,371 Opens the Recovery
Gold is sitting in a very important decision area right now. Price is trading around 4,346, just below the short-term resistance zone, while the market waits for the Fed rate decision. This is not a clean bullish reversal yet, but the chart is starting to show that buyers are trying to build a recovery from the lower side of the structure.
From the SMC view, the larger trend is still damaged. Gold dropped strongly from the late-August high, then moved inside a bearish correction channel. That tells me sellers still have control in the bigger picture. But price is now trying to push out from the lower part of that channel, and that is why this area deserves attention.
The key short-term level is 4,361 - 4,371. If gold can break and hold above this zone, it would show that the current bounce is not just a weak reaction from the lows. It would open the path back toward the bearish FVG around 4,430 - 4,455. This is the first real test for buyers.
For newer traders, the idea is simple: gold may recover in the short term, but that does not mean the full trend has turned bullish. When price is still below major supply, every rally must be tested carefully. A move into FVG or OB can become a rejection zone if sellers step back in.
My main view is bullish for a corrective recovery while gold stays above the 4,326 - 4,330 support area. This level matters because price is holding near the 100-day SMA, and buyers are trying to defend that base. If the market respects this support and breaks above 4,371, the next target becomes 4,430 - 4,455.
Above that, the bigger resistance is 4,480 - 4,515. This is marked as a Bearish OB / BSL Raid zone on the chart. If gold reaches that area, I would be very careful with late buying because sellers may use that liquidity to push price lower again.
The wider bullish recovery only becomes stronger if gold reclaims 4,505 and holds above it. Until then, I still treat this as a recovery move inside a larger bearish structure. The 200-day SMA around 4,540 also remains a major ceiling for the broader trend.
If gold fails to break 4,361 - 4,371 and loses 4,326, then the recovery idea becomes weak. In that case, price may return toward the lower part of the channel around 4,280 - 4,300, where buyers may try to react again.
Key Price Zones to Watch
Current reaction area: 4,340 - 4,350
First breakout resistance: 4,361 - 4,371
Main support / 100-day SMA area: 4,326 - 4,330
Bearish FVG / mitigation zone: 4,430 - 4,455
Bearish OB / BSL raid zone: 4,480 - 4,515
Major upper resistance / 200-day SMA area: 4,540 - 4,560
HTF Premium PD Array: 4,600 - 4,635
Lower demand if support fails: 4,280 - 4,300
Bullish confirmation: clean reclaim above 4,371
Stronger recovery confirmation: hold above 4,505
Invalidation: clean break and hold below 4,326
Do you think gold can reclaim 4,371 before the Fed decision, or does the market still need one more sweep lower before buyers step in?
TITradingView Ideas16 Sept