XAUUSD — Mitigation Sell Before FOMC
Market Context
Gold is trading near $4,293 after extending deeper into the lower half of the H1 descending channel. Price continues to print lower highs beneath HTF dynamic supply, keeping short-term order flow bearish despite the latest corrective rebounds.
Macro conditions remain restrictive for Gold ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Markets are heavily positioned for a 25 bp Fed hike, while the U.S. dollar is near a two-week high and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%. At the same time, renewed Middle East tensions have pushed Brent crude above $106, reinforcing inflation concerns and supporting higher-rate expectations.
SMC View
H1 structure remains bearish inside the descending delivery channel. Price has repeatedly failed to sustain recovery above the internal structure, while the latest MSS keeps lower sell-side liquidity exposed.
The immediate $4,308–$4,325 Mitigation POI is the most important decision area. A corrective retracement into this zone could rebalance the latest downside displacement before sellers attempt another continuation lower.
The current price is already close to discount, so chasing shorts near $4,290 offers weaker positioning. The cleaner setup is a mitigation rally followed by fresh bearish confirmation.
Main Trading Scenario
Sell Priority: $4,308–$4,325
Condition: Wait for price to retrace into the Mitigation POI and show bearish rejection, failed acceptance above the zone, or a lower-timeframe bearish MSS/CHOCH.
Entry: $4,308–$4,325 after confirmation
SL: Above $4,340 and the rejection structure
TP1: $4,270–$4,280
TP2: $4,250–$4,260
TP3: $4,220–$4,235
Key Zones to Watch
$4,400.899 — Premium Bearish OB
$4,308–$4,325 — Main Mitigation POI
$4,255–$4,270 — Discount POI
$4,220–$4,235 — Deep SSL Objective
$4,280 area — Nearby sell-side liquidity
Above $4,340 — Immediate bearish setup weakens
Prime Gold View
The sell bias remains favored while XAUUSD stays beneath the Mitigation POI and continues respecting the H1 descending channel.
A confirmed rejection from $4,308–$4,325 could reopen delivery toward the Discount POI and eventually the $4,220–$4,235 Deep SSL Objective. With the Fed decision approaching and rate-hike expectations already elevated, volatility may increase sharply, so confirmation remains more important than anticipating the move.
No confirmation, no trade.
TITradingView Ideas15 Sept