XAUUSD H1: This Bounce Has One Problem — Supply Is Waiting
Gold is bouncing again, but I am not convinced this is the beginning of a bullish reversal.
The reason is not the current candle. It is where the bounce is heading.
On the H1 chart, price is recovering from the recent low around 4,250–4,260, while the broader structure remains bearish. The previous recovery toward 4,400 failed, a CHOCH followed, and sellers pushed gold into a fresh low.
Now price is trading around 4,307.
For me, that puts gold in an awkward place: too late to sell the low, but too early to trust the bounce.
The area I care about is above us.
4,335–4,355 is where the next decision should happen
Look at the red zone on the chart.
This area sits directly above current price and overlaps the retracement region of the latest bearish leg. More importantly, it is where I expect the current recovery to face its first serious test.
My preferred scenario is therefore not to SELL at 4,307.
I want gold to come to me.
If price pushes into 4,335–4,355, gets rejected and closes back below 4,335 on H1, I will treat that as evidence that the bounce was corrective rather than the beginning of a new uptrend.
SELL SETUP
Entry: 4,335–4,350 after rejection
SL: 4,365
TP1: 4,300
TP2: 4,270
TP3: 4,250
TP4: 4,205–4,215
Why such a deep final target?
Because the wave structure drawn on this chart suggests something important.
The drop into approximately 4,250 can be interpreted as Wave III, while the current recovery may develop into Wave IV. If that reading is correct, one more bearish expansion — Wave V — could still be missing.
That would put the 4,200 area firmly on my radar.
But I would not trade Elliott Wave alone. The reaction at 4,335–4,355 still needs to confirm the idea.
No rejection, no short.
There is also a faster SELL that does not need 4,350
Suppose gold never reaches the red zone.
If buyers lose the current recovery and price instead produces an H1 close below 4,285, the market would be threatening the latest rebound structure again.
In that situation, I would wait for 4,285–4,300 to be tested from underneath rather than chasing the first breakdown candle.
BREAKDOWN SELL
Entry: 4,285–4,300 after failed retest
SL: 4,318
TP1: 4,260
TP2: 4,250
TP3: 4,210
The difference between these two sells is simple.
At 4,335–4,355, I am selling a failed recovery.
Below 4,285, I am selling a renewed breakdown.
Two different triggers. Same bearish thesis.
What would make me BUY Gold?
This is where I stop treating the red zone as resistance and start treating it as a test for the sellers.
If buyers can produce a convincing H1 close above 4,355, I do not want to short that breakout.
I want to see what happens next.
If price comes back into 4,340–4,355, holds the zone as support and prints a bullish reaction, the situation changes considerably. The expected Wave IV could extend much further than the bearish roadmap suggests.
That gives me a clean alternative:
BUY SETUP
Entry: 4,345–4,360 after bullish retest
SL: 4,325
TP1: 4,385
TP2: 4,410
TP3: 4,435
The first major objective is around 4,400–4,415, where the previous H1 swing structure sits.
A break above that region would be much more significant than the small bounce we are seeing now. It would tell me that sellers are no longer controlling every recovery.
And what about the huge resistance above?
The chart still carries a major resistance zone around 4,470–4,495.
I am not building today's trade around that area because price is simply too far away.
But it matters for the bigger picture.
Even if gold breaks 4,355 and extends toward 4,400+, I would not automatically call the entire H1 structure bullish. 4,470–4,495 remains the larger ceiling buyers eventually need to solve.
That distinction is important for newer traders:
A bullish trade does not necessarily mean the whole market has become bullish.
Sometimes we are simply trading a recovery inside a larger bearish structure.
Three prices. That is all I need today.
Instead of trying to predict the next ten candles, I am reducing this chart to three numbers:
4,355 decides whether the current bounce deserves more room.
4,285 tells me whether sellers are taking control again.
4,250 is the low that could unlock the final bearish leg toward approximately 4,200–4,215.
Right now, my preference remains SELL the failed recovery rather than BUY the middle of it.
But preference is not permission to enter.
If 4,355 breaks and becomes support, I switch to the BUY scenario.
If 4,335–4,355 rejects price, I look for the SELL.
If 4,285 breaks first, I stop waiting for the higher retracement and focus on continuation.
Gold has given us three doors.
Which one opens first: 4,355 or 4,285?
TITradingView Ideas15 Sept
