Back to feed
1 sourceTracking since 4h ago

Somalia: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Analysis July–December 2026 - A new risk of Famine arises as flooding from El niño exacerbates already high levels of acute food insecurity and acute malnutrition (Published on 23 September 2026)

Chronological coverage

  1. Today
  2. Latest3h ago

    Press Statement| Hunger and malnutrition crises persist in Somalia as projected floods and funding shortfalls threaten vulnerable populations

    Country: Somalia Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, UN Children's Fund, World Food Programme The Federal Government of Somalia and the United Nations warn that projected flooding and funding shortfalls could worsen the hunger crisis and push more people – especially children -- into extreme food insecurity and acute malnutrition. MOGADISHU, 23 September 2026 – Millions of people across Somalia continue to face high levels of hunger while acute malnutrition among children is set to worsen over the coming months when heavy flooding associated with the anticipated El Niño is expected to worsen the situation during October to December 2026, the Federal Government of Somalia and the United Nations (UN) warned today. The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)* analysis projects that 5.4 million people will face crisis levels of hunger or worse between October and December 2026, including 1.5 million people facing emergency levels of hunger or worse. According to the IPC analysis, 1.92 million under-five children will require treatment for acute malnutrition between July 2026 and June 2027, including 433,000 children with severe acute malnutrition - the deadliest form. Nearly 62 per cent of the country's malnutrition burden is concentrated amongst rural populations; while internally displaced people in Belet Weyne and pockets within the displacement sites in Baidoa, are projected to reach Extremely Critical levels (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5) as anticipated flooding disrupts access to services. According to the assessment, acute malnutrition in Burhakaba district, Bay region, which was at risk of famine in April, has improved, as a combined result of the Gu rains and a scale-up of the humanitarian response in that district. The current analysis however indicates a risk of famine in Baidoa, also in Bay region, where internally displaced people (IDPs) face both catastrophic hunger risk and extremely critical malnutrition classifications. As the risk of famine assessment for Baidoa IDPs is based on data collected in April 2026, a follow up assessment is planned for October 2026 to gather new evidence and confirm the level of risk. “The humanitarian crisis in Somalia remains dire and millions of people are at risk due to these high levels of hunger and malnutrition,” said George Conway, Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia. “The projected threat of El Niño-related flooding will further undermine already fragile livelihoods, displace vulnerable communities and increase the risk of disease. We call for urgent action and additional resources to protect lives, strengthen preparedness and prevent this crisis from deteriorating further.” The period from October to December 2026 carries the highest risk, as floods are projected due to heavy El Niño-induced rains that will hit rural riverine and agropastoral communities hardest — destroying crops and livestock, cutting households off from markets and income, and triggering new waves of displacement. According to the Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA), 2.5 to 3.5 million people could be exposed to flooding, with 1 million likely to be displaced from areas where they farm and graze livestock, swelling the ranks of people already facing acute hunger. “We are deeply concerned by the worsening food insecurity and malnutrition situation, particularly as we prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño,” said Mohamuud Moallim Abdullahi, Commissioner, Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA). “The Government is working closely with humanitarian partners and state authorities to address the multiple crises that Somalia is facing. We urge all partners and donors to support these efforts so that we can act early, protect lives and livelihoods, and reduce human suffering.” The Federal Government of Somalia and the UN are calling for immediate action to protect and finance the continuity of both general food and cash assistance and treatment for severe and moderate acute malnutrition; pre-position food, emergency livelihoods and nutrition supplies, and enhance cash readiness in rural and flood-prone areas before flooding restricts road access in October; and scale up integrated food security, nutrition, health, and water and sanitation outreach, as well as screening for rural host communities and IDPs alike in the highest-risk districts. With limited funding, a sustained investment in seasonal food security, nutrition and mortality assessments and monitoring is urgently needed to inform prioritization decisions and support timely action. Funding decisions taken in the coming weeks will determine whether both food and treatment are available when the October deterioration begins — and whether these can still reach communities once roads are cut. Agropastoral communities across the country, already weakened by successive poor seasons including the below-average 2026 Gu rains, are among the most affected. Rural areas account for two thirds of the malnutrition burden. El Niño-induced flooding anticipated during the Deyr (October to December) season is expected to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, disrupt food production and drive further displacement, food insecurity and malnutrition. "Families already facing hunger cannot afford to lose their harvests or livestock to floods," said Etienne Peterschmitt, FAO Representative in Somalia. "Urgent funding is needed to turn early warnings into action, to save lives, protect livelihoods, and support early recovery for rural populations as this crisis deepens." **“**Millions across Somalia are struggling to recover from drought, insecurity and high food costs, with many families having exhausted the resources they relied on,” said Hameed Nuru, WFP Representative and Country Director in Somalia. “As flooding threatens to bring yet another shock, WFP is preparing for the months ahead, delivering assistance to communities most in need, and supporting early action to protect lives and livelihoods. The support we receive now will determine how many families we can support before the crisis deepens.” “Between 2021 and 2025, UNICEF, together with the Government of Somalia and partners, supported more than 2.25 million admissions of children with severe acute malnutrition. Timely access to treatment has saved lives and given children the opportunity to recover and thrive,” said Sandra Lattouf, UNICEF Representative in Somalia. “Today, these critical services are under increasing pressure due to funding shortages. Urgent support is needed to help Somali authorities and partners maintain treatment services through the end of the year and ensure that essential nutrition supplies reach the children and communities that need them most before access routes become more constrained. The UN in Somalia is scaling up integrated nutrition, health, water and sanitation, and food security assistance in the highest-risk districts, prioritising areas classified at Phase 4 and above and displacement settlements in Beledweyne and Baidoa.##### Notes for editors: The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a multi-partner initiative for improving food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making. Governments, UN agencies, NGOs, civil society and other actors use the IPC classification and analytical approach to determine the severity and magnitude of acute and chronic food insecurity, and acute malnutrition, according to internationally recognized scientific standards. Find out more here . About FAO The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to defeat hunger. Our goal is to achieve food security for all and make sure that people have regular access to enough high-quality food to lead active, healthy lives. About UNICEF UNICEF works in some of the world's toughest places, to reach the world's most disadvantaged children. Across more than 190 countries and territories, we work for every child, everywhere, to build a better world for everyone. About WFP The United Nations World Food Programme is the world’s largest humanitarian organization saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters and the impact of weather extremes. Follow us on X, formerly Twitter, via @wfp, @WFPSomalia For more information, please contact: Zaki Hassan |FAO Somalia|+46 769 466 679 |Email: zaki.hassan@fao.org Sandra Bisin |UNICEF Somalia|+ 252 61 337 5885|Email: sbisin@unicef.org Joe English | UNICEF New York | +1 917 893 0692 |Email: jenglish@unicef.org Fatima Hirsi | WFP Somalia | +252 61 177 9672 |Email: fatima.hirsi@wfp.org Azfar Deen | WFP Nairobi | +39 345 846 6425 |Email: azfar.deen@wfp.org

    ReliefWebReliefWebWorld Food Programme
  3. Follow-up4h ago

    SOMALIA: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Malnutrition Snapshot | July - December 2026

    Country: Somalia Source: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Please refer to the attached file. Overview Somalia continues to face a volatile and complex food and nutrition crisis, with the risk of Famine identified for the second consecutive IPC analysis. Previous droughts, erratic rainfall, insecurity, and above-average food prices are driving high levels of need, while the impacts of El Niño are expected to further aggravate conditions. At the same time, humanitarian funding and response capacity have declined sharply since January 2026 and are likely to reduce further in the coming months despite increasing needs. Nearly 5.1 million people are facing high levels of acute food insecurity— IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse)—from July–September 2026. While an improvement from the April 2026 analysis, it is a 50 percent increase from the same period in 2025. Close to 1.4 million people are facing IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency), which is characterised by large food gaps and high acute malnutrition. Food security conditions vary significantly across the country. Pastoral, agropastoral and riverine areas are experiencing improvements in southern Somalia in the current period due to near-average rainfall during the Aprilto-June 2026 Gu season. However, Gu rains performed poorly in pastoral livelihoods of the northeastern region and adjacent areas in northwest and central Somalia. During the October–December 2026 projection period, the population in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above is expected to increase by 6 percent, to 5.4 million people, driven largely by flooding from El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole. This includes 1.5 million people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) and, alarmingly, close to 26,000 people in Bay Region among Baidoa internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Catastrophe (IPC AFI Phase 5), facing starvation and the collapse of livelihoods. In a plausible worst-case scenario in which El Niño flooding and associated displacement are worse than expected, Baidoa IDPs face a risk of Famine from October–December 2026. Acute malnutrition has also deteriorated, with an estimated 1.92 million children aged 6–59 months suffering or expected to suffer from acute malnutrition from July 2026 to June 2027—a 4 percent increase from 2025. Approximately 157,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women are also facing or expected to face acute malnutrition during the same period. From June–September 2026, 19 areas are classified as IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 4 (Critical), reflecting a significant deterioration compared to historical trends. The situation is expected to further deteriorate in the projection period as El Niño rains heighten disease burden and outbreaks in IDP settlements, compromise access to safe water and hygiene practices, and severely limit access to health and nutrition services. Beletweyne IDPs are expected to deteriorate to Phase 5 (Extremely Critical), which is characterised by high disease prevalence and widespread deaths. Substantive deterioration towards the upper limit of IPC AMN Phase 4 is expected in seven areas: Bari Urban IDPs (Bossaaso), Bay Urban IDPs (Baidoa), Nugaal Urban IDPs (Garoowe), Beletweyne District, North Gedo Riverine, Bay Agropastoral and Shabelle Riverine livelihoods. While conditions remain severe, the acute malnutrition situation among agropastoral populations in Burhakaba District has shown a significant improvement since the April 2026 analysis, which identified the area as at risk of Famine through June 2026. This is largely attributed to the scale-up of a targeted and integrated humanitarian response. Urgent action is critical to save lives and mitigate the high levels of need forecasted for October to December. This includes an immediate and targeted scale-up of humanitarian food security assistance as part of an integrated humanitarian response and alongside anticipatory action.

    ReliefWebReliefWebFood Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia
  4. First seen4h ago

    Somalia: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Analysis July–December 2026 - A new risk of Famine arises as flooding from El niño exacerbates already high levels of acute food insecurity and acute malnutrition (Published on 23 September 2026)

    Country: Somalia Source: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Please refer to the attached file. Overview Somalia continues to face a volatile and complex food and nutrition crisis, with the risk of Famine (RoF) identified for the second consecutive IPC analysis. Acute food insecurity remains high due to a combination of factors, including the lingering effects of previous droughts, erratic rainfall in the 2026 April-toJune Gu season, conflict and insecurity, and above-average food prices, and El Niño related flooding during the forthcoming 2026 October-to-December Deyr season. Between July and September 2026, nearly 5.1 million people (26 percent of the analysed population) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity—IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). This includes close to 1.4 million people (7 percent of the analysed population) in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency), which is characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. While this reflects better-than expected seasonal improvement compared to the last analysis in April 2026, it represents a 50 percent year-onyear increase since July–September 2025 and the second highest number of people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above since 2017. This steep deterioration from last year comes amid a sharp decline in humanitarian funding and response capacity, with humanitarian food security assistance (HFSA) expected to decline further in the coming months.

    ReliefWebReliefWebFood Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia