USD/JPY Trade Setup - Sep 15, 2026
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- TIFirst seen15 Sept, 11:20
USD/JPY Trade Setup - Sep 15, 2026
USD/JPY Trade Setup - Sep 15, 2026 Market Context The US Dollar is in a mild recovery phase after a sharp August selloff, currently holding just below a major resistance zone. Japanese Yen remains sensitive to risk sentiment and any BOJ policy signals. The broader macro backdrop supports a short-term USD recovery, but the larger trend still favors JPY strength, making this a counter-trend bounce trade that requires disciplined risk management. What the 1H Chart Shows Price dropped aggressively in early September, formed a falling wedge, broke out to the upside, and has been recovering since. The recovery has been gradual and controlled, which is healthy. Price is currently consolidating around 154.84 after a clean run from the 153.50 lows. However, there is a bearish divergence forming on the 1H RSI. Price is printing higher highs but RSI is making lower highs. This is a warning signal that upside momentum is fading and a pullback is likely before any continuation higher. This divergence must be respected. Trade Plan Bias: Short-term long, within a larger downtrend. Reduced size trade only. Wait for: A pullback into the 154.6-154.80 zone. Do not chase the current price. Let it come to you. Entry Trigger: A bullish reversal candle (hammer, bullish engulfing, or similar) closing green on the 1H at that pullback zone. No candle confirmation, no entry. Stop Loss: Below 154.175. If this breaks, the bounce structure is invalid. Targets: • First target 155.52 - take majority off here • Runner to 155.98 if momentum holds post first target • Maximum target 156.06, which is a major overhead resistance. Do not hold beyond this. Key Risks to Watch • Any BOJ hawkish signal or intervention will kill this setup instantly • If broader risk sentiment turns negative, JPY will strengthen and invalidate the long • The 1H bearish divergence means this could reverse sharply without much warning near 155.13 • This is a bounce with 4H Bullish divergence within a daily downtrend. Treat it as such and do not overstay.
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