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Gold Technical Analysis Strategy (September 15)

International gold prices opened by extending the weakness seen at the close of the previous session, initially trending lower. The US Dollar Index decisively climbed back above the 200-day moving average, looming over gold prices like a massive weight and stifling the bulls. This week, the market awaits the US August retail sales figures and the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision; expectations that retail data will significantly exceed previous readings deal another heavy blow to gold prices. Most economists anticipate a Fed rate hike early Thursday (Beijing time), and the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders assign a probability of approximately 93% to a hike this week. Consequently, until the decision is finalized, gold is likely to remain under heavy pressure from bearish expectations and continue its weak performance. However, markets are always full of variables. If the data falls short of expectations, the Fed unexpectedly holds rates steady (resulting in a "dovish" outcome), or the "dot plot" reveals a less aggressive rate-hike path than anticipated, gold could regain bullish momentum and stage a rebound. Yet, one should not rejoice too soon; high oil prices continue to fuel inflation and rate-hike expectations. Gold remains in a generally bearish environment, meaning any rebound would likely be a temporary respite rather than a reversal of the overall trend. Yesterday, gold faced resistance in the 4350–4355 range and underwent a corrective pullback, dropping as low as 4253 during the evening session. Although it subsequently bounced back, it was firmly capped near 4318. From a daily chart perspective, the price has fallen below the moving average band since last week, with the moving averages fanning out downwards—a bearish formation resembling an army of bears poised for a massive offensive upon the command to attack. Yesterday, gold broke below the 4300 level and the previous low of 4280, opening up room for further short-term declines. Ultimately, however, whether the bears can fully flex their muscles depends on whether the Federal Reserve proceeds with a rate hike on Thursday. If interest rates are raised as expected, gold may undergo another downward correction or even enter a medium-to-long-term bearish phase; in the short term, it could pull back to the 4200–4100 range, while in the long term, it might plunge toward the 4000–3900 zone. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly holds rates steady, gold is unlikely to stage a strong rally—multiple moving averages overhead continue to create dense resistance, and even the slightest hawkish rhetoric from the Fed could reignite market expectations for a rate hike. Thus, from both technical and fundamental perspectives, the bears hold the upper hand. On the 4-hour (H4) chart, the trend remains weak, and there is a high probability of a further slight pullback today. Based on the hourly chart, gold is expected to experience weak, range-bound movement for the day. Watch for short-term resistance near the overnight rebound high of 4318–4320, with the primary intraday resistance battleground located around 4330–4335; this level also marks the upper boundary of the current hourly trading range. The overall trend is likely to remain bearish. On the downside, monitor the battle for the hourly range's lower boundary near 4265–4260, which also corresponds to last night's low. Trading Strategy: Prioritize short positions (selling on rallies); consider long positions (buying on dips) only as a secondary option. Short gold at 4325–4335; stop-loss at 4345; targets at 4300, 4290, 4260, and 4220. In a bearish trend, rallies offer opportunities to go short, though one should also remain alert for potential long opportunities at key support levels. Markets change rapidly; maintain strict stop-losses and avoid overstaying trades.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

Hyrox changes rules and apologises for allowing Australian athlete who soiled herself to continue

Australian Joanna Wietrzyk went on to win fitness race in Beijing Hyrox admits making mistake by ‘not reacting immediately’ Organisers of the global indoor fitness competition, Hyrox, have apologised and pledged immediate rule changes after an Australian athlete was allowed to finish and win an event in Beijing despite soiling herself mid-race. Footage of world record holder Joanna Wietrzyk competing on Saturday showed her continuing through demanding exercises and using communal equipment, with faecal matter visibly running down her legs. The incident went viral on social media and triggered debate about Hyrox’s health and safety standards, and athlete responsibility. Continue reading...

The GuardianThe GuardianIma Caldwell15 Sept

China dismisses AI ‘fearmongering’ as spy chief warns of threat to Communist party rule

Beijing hits back after Anthropic CEO calls for US to impede China’s progress in AI China has dismissed what it said were “fearmongering” calls for the US to block Beijing’s AI industry, even as the top Chinese spy chief warned the evolving technology could threaten Communist party rule. The US tech entrepreneur and Anthropic chief executive, Dario Amodei, wrote an essay published over the weekend that called for a global slowdown in AI capabilities, but also said Washington should actively impede Beijing’s advancement in order to keep a technological edge. Continue reading...

The GuardianThe GuardianOliver Holmes14 Sept

The U.S.-China AI War Has Kazakhstan Caught in the Crossfire

The United States and China each have initiatives racing to shape the future of artificial intelligence, and Kazakhstan may have to choose a side. As the only country to have joined both the American-led Pax Silica initiative and China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO), its longstanding multivector foreign policy is coming under new pressure as Washington and Beijing compete for technological influence. The unusual position has drawn scrutiny from Washington as the United States seeks to limit China's influence over…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.comRFE/RL staff14 Sept