USD — page 2

GOLD: Gold H1 Analysis – September 17

📰 Gold News & Market Developments Following the Fed's decision, the USD and US bond yields remain elevated, exerting pressure on Gold. XAUUSD experienced a sharp decline and is currently recovering from the 4,260 level. On the H1 timeframe, the current recovery is insufficient to confirm a reversal. Prices remain below key EMA lines. => Short-term fundamentals: Bearish bias for Gold. 📊 Analysis The H1 structure still shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows, with the EMA alignment EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100 < EMA200 → the downtrend remains dominant. The rise from 4,260 to above 4,280 may simply be a technical rebound. Therefore, rather than selling at the current price, it is advisable to wait for Gold to rally toward a resistance zone for a better entry position. If the price breaks strongly above 4,325 and holds there, exercise caution with Sell orders and watch for a potential move toward the 4,350–4,365 zone. 🎯 Trading Strategy 🔴 Sell Zone 4,315–4,325 : The EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 converge here. If the price rallies but faces rejection, sellers may step back in. 🔴 Sell Zone 4,357–4,370 : EMA200 + downtrend line + supply zone → a strong resistance area. 🟢 Buy Zone 4,255–4,265 : Key support zone. Only consider buying if a clear reversal signal appears. => Key strategy: Patiently wait for Gold to rebound to the resistance zone to look for selling opportunities, rather than chasing the trade at the current price.

AUDTHB Holds Bullish Bias

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, AUDTHB closed at 23.72 in the Thai market. The MI Leading Index MoM remained broadly unchanged from the previous reading, suggesting that the outlook for Australia's economic momentum remained stable. Meanwhile, the Fed raised interest rates, strengthening the USD and putting pressure on AUDTHB. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today There are no high-impact Australian economic releases today. Therefore, the AUD is expected to be driven mainly by external factors, particularly the Chinese economic outlook, commodity prices, Risk Sentiment, and USD direction, which could affect capital flows into the AUD. AUDTHB has rebounded from 23.62 as markets increased expectations of an RBA rate hike amid inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the Thai baht has been pressured by a stronger USD following the Fed's Hawkish signal. This could support AUDTHB's recovery toward 23.71–23.73. Overall, AUDTHB is expected to move within a range with a slight upside bias, with the main focus on Risk Sentiment, China, Commodities, and USD direction. Technical Analysis — AUDTHB 1H Bias: Sideway Up / Bullish Price rebounded from 23.62 and is recovering within the 23.62–23.71 range. If price breaks and holds above 23.71, it could move higher to test 23.73. However, failure to break above 23.71 could lead to a pullback or sideways consolidation. Resistance: 23.71 / 23.73 Support: 23.62 Target: 23.71 → 23.73 Cut Loss: 23.61

EURTHB Eyes Eurozone CPI

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, EURTHB closed at 38.41 in the Thai market. Eurozone manufacturing data came in slightly better than expected, while wage growth slowed, suggesting that the overall economic outlook remained broadly stable. Meanwhile, the Fed raised interest rates, supporting the USD and putting pressure on EURTHB. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today | Forecast | Previous EU: 16:00 Eurozone CPI YoY | 3.3% | 2.9% EU: 16:00 Eurozone Core CPI YoY | 2.4% | 2.5% EU: 16:00 Eurozone CPI MoM | 2.9% | 0.2% Today's key European data are the Eurozone inflation figures. CPI YoY is forecast to rise to 3.3% from 2.9%, while Core CPI YoY is expected to ease slightly from 2.5% to 2.4%. Markets will therefore focus on which components are driving the increase in headline inflation. If headline inflation comes in above expectations, markets may assess the ECB's monetary policy outlook as more restrictive, potentially supporting the EUR. Meanwhile, slower Core CPI could reduce underlying inflationary pressure. Overall, EURTHB is expected to remain volatile within a range, with the main focus on Eurozone CPI, the ECB interest-rate outlook, and European Bond Yields. Technical Analysis — EURTHB 1H Bias: Sideway Price is moving within the 38.27–38.35 range after breaking below the 38.35 zone. If price holds above 38.27, it could rebound to test 38.35–38.37. However, a break below 38.22 would make the downside structure more pronounced. Resistance: 38.35 / 38.37 Support: 38.27 / 38.22 Target: 38.35 → 38.37 Cut Loss: 38.22

BTCUSDT: Bearish Take Control, Downward Wave!

BTCUSDT is trading around 76,230 USDT and remains within a descending channel. The current rebound lacks the strength to alter the market structure, as the price stays below the EMA34 (approx. 76,530) and EMA89 (approx. 77,200), while the pattern of lower highs persists. The 76,800–77,800 zone is a critical resistance area to watch. If BTC rallies to this region but faces rejection below the EMA cluster and the channel's upper boundary, I lean towards a scenario where the price drops to 75,000, followed by an extension toward the primary target near 74,000 USDT. Today's macroeconomic data reinforces the bearish outlook. The Fed has raised interest rates by 25 bps to the 3.75%–4.00% range, with most officials anticipating at least one more hike before year-end. Following this decision, the USD strengthened, Treasury yields rose, and US equities fell—creating an unfavorable environment for Bitcoin and risk-on assets. The bearish scenario would lose momentum if BTC breaks out of the channel and holds firmly above the 77,800–78,000 level.

USD-JPY Pullback Expected! Sell!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6wk7cWxm/ Hello,Traders! USDJPY is pressing into the horizontal supply area after a strong markup, where a buy-side liquidity sweep and mitigation could trigger bearish displacement.Time Frame 2H. Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too!

• critical toward USD · 93%

USD/CHF Breaks Out as Fed Hike Widens the Rate Gap

USD/CHF rose roughly 0.9% on Wednesday and pushed above 0.8250 as the Dollar firmed broadly following the Federal Reserve's decision to lift the target range by 25-bps to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase since 2023. The vote was unanimous, and the updated Summary of Economic Projections carried a hawkish tilt, with only two participants treating the new range as sufficient for the remainder of the year against four projecting a further 50-bps before December. Chair Kevin Warsh used the press conference to stress a faster return to the 2% inflation target, giving the Dollar a second leg of support once the statement itself had been digested. The Swiss side of the pair offers no offset. The SNB policy rate has sat at 0% through both the March and June assessments, markets assign almost no probability of a change at next Thursday's update, and the first hike is not priced until well into 2027. That leaves USD/CHF as the cleanest rate differential expression in G10, and one that is widening at a time when most other policy spreads are compressing. It also explains the growing interest in the pair as a carry vehicle, with Swiss funding costs pinned at zero and none of the two-sided policy risk embedded in USD/JPY, where the BOJ is still normalizing and officials have a history of leaning against the move near round numbers. Swiss authorities have tended to lean the other way, flagging a willingness to counter excessive franc appreciation, though the franc's safe haven bid remains the clearest threat to any carry structure should risk sentiment deteriorate. In the above chart, USD/CHF has cleared 0.8200 for the first time since June 2025, a level that rejected the pair in July 2026 and has stalled advances repeatedly since. Today's move carries better quality than those earlier attempts, trading decisively through the level rather than probing it intraday. There is little reference overhead until 0.8500, the high from the last period the pair occupied this range. RSI has pushed to 70, and while that reading would ordinarily invite a contrarian fade in a range-bound market, momentum extremes are unreliable in the opening stage of a repricing and overbought conditions can persist while global markets absorb the Fed's shift. The more useful near-term test is whether 0.8200 converts from resistance into support on the first pullback, which would define a new range. A failure to hold it would frame today as an event-driven one-off rather than a trend change.

• favorable toward USD · 78%

10's back to 5% After the Rate Hike

Slightly hawkish lean in the projection, and 10-year yields quickly returned to that 5% marker. The Fed is forecasting one more hike into the end of the year and that's helped to push a run of USD strength to go along with that run-higher in yields. The next major mark for 10-year notes is the 5.25% level that last traded in 2007 and if that trades soon, it would seem weakness in equities would come along with it. Next up for the USD is perhaps the more pertinent item for FX markets, and that's how the Bank of Japan positions their widely-expected rate hike. - JS

USD/JPY Structure into FOMC

The BoJ rate decision may carry more potential for the USD/JPY pair on this go-round but there's some clean structure in-place ahead of the Fed meeting, where the bank is widely expected to hike for the first time in three years. The 155.00 level has so far been support all morning, and the prior swing-low turned resistance at 155.50 has been resistance. Below, it's the 153.00 level that's vital especially as we go into later-week trade with that BoJ meeting high on the calendar. If that breaches, larger fears of big picture carry unwind can compel a stronger bearish move. On the long side, carry is still positive but the bigger question is for how long trends might run. After the intervention at 164, bulls started to get more and more bold until eventually we saw the sell-off from 160.00. This can theoretically cap upside it's just that right now the only clear line-in-the-sand is 160 so the bigger question is how Bessent or the BoJ might respond to a 157 or 158, but it does feel risky going for that, at this point, and if that's clear, it can become a more widespread item as we go into some heavy event risk in the second-half of the week. - JS

• neutral toward USD · 95%

More Aircraft From Seattle to Seoul: Growth Ahead for Korean Air?

Seoul-based Korean Air has closed the books on the largest aircraft order in its history. On September 15, the airline signed a firm agreement worth USD… The post More Aircraft From Seattle to Seoul: Growth Ahead for Korean Air? first appeared on The Aviation Hub .

• neutral toward Korean Air · 96%

XAUUSD 4353 squeeze — 4508 is the trap

XAUUSD 4353 squeeze — 4508 is the trap Gold finally got back above 4,300. But I’m not calling this clean bullish yet. Price defended the important 4,280 - 4,294 area, which lines up with the old sellside liquidity zone and the 50-day SMA reaction area. That bounce matters. Sellers tried to press lower, but they failed to break the lower base cleanly. Now gold is sitting around 4,353, right near the upper side of this bearish channel. This is the decision point. If buyers can break out of the channel and hold above 4,360, the recovery can keep pushing. First draw is 4,454. That is the buy-side liquidity sitting above the current range. If that level gets taken, 4,508 becomes the bigger target. But yeah, 4,508 is not a place to blindly chase. That zone is the premium area from the previous drop. If gold reaches 4,500 - 4,508 and starts rejecting, sellers can reload again. Especially while USD is still firm, Fed focus is ahead, and gold is still struggling around the 100-day SMA area with RSI not fully bullish yet. Main bias is short-term bullish recovery while gold holds above 4,294 - 4,280. But the higher-timeframe structure is still not fully repaired until gold clears 4,454 - 4,508. Trading scenario: Buy idea only if gold holds above 4,294 and breaks above 4,360 with clean candles. Entry zone: 4,320 - 4,360 after confirmation Deeper buy zone: 4,280 - 4,294 if price sweeps and reclaims Stop loss: below 4,260 TP1: 4,454 TP2: 4,508 TP3: 4,540 if momentum expands No reclaim, no chase. Simple. Sell reaction only if gold reaches 4,500 - 4,508 and rejects hard. That would be a premium reaction trade, not the main early move. If gold breaks below 4,260 with pressure, the bounce idea is cooked. Then sellers can drag price back toward 4,220 - 4,180. For now, I’m reading this as sellside defended, bearish channel breakout attempt, and 4,508 liquidity waiting. You think gold breaks 4,454 first, or traps buyers before the Fed move?

XAUUSD – Gold Attempts Recovery Below Downtrend Line

XAUUSD – Gold Attempts Recovery Below Downtrend Line Gold is trying to recover from the recent low area, but the market is still trading inside a broader bearish structure. Price is now around 4,350 after reacting from the 4,279 support zone. This bounce shows that buyers are defending the lower range, but the recovery still needs confirmation because gold remains below the descending trendline and below the next resistance levels. From the market side, gold is still facing pressure from stronger Fed rate-hike expectations, elevated U.S. yields, and a firmer USD. Geopolitical risks can create short-term safe-haven demand, but so far they have not been strong enough to fully shift the technical picture back to bullish. Technical view: Gold reacted from the 4,279 support area. Price is now testing the 4,338 – 4,356 resistance region. The short-term recovery is improving, but still not confirmed. The downtrend line remains the main barrier above current price. A clean break above 4,356 may open the way toward 4,378. If 4,378 breaks, the next upside target is 4,416. If gold fails around 4,338 – 4,356, sellers may try to push price back toward 4,315 and 4,279. Key levels to watch: Current price: 4,350 Main support: 4,279 Short-term support: 4,315 Current resistance: 4,338 – 4,356 Next resistance: 4,378 Upper target: 4,416 Bearish invalidation zone: above 4,416 Main scenario: If gold holds above 4,315 and breaks cleanly above 4,356, buyers may continue the recovery toward 4,378. A stronger bullish confirmation would come only if price breaks the downtrend line and holds above 4,378. If that happens, gold may extend toward 4,416, where sellers may appear again. Alternative scenario: If gold rejects from 4,338 – 4,356 and fails to hold 4,315, the recovery structure becomes weaker. In that case, price may move back toward 4,279. A clear break below 4,279 would return more pressure to sellers and may continue the bearish channel movement. Hannah’s view: Gold is showing a recovery attempt, but not a clean bullish reversal yet. The chart is still controlled by the descending trendline, so I do not want to chase the move while price is sitting near resistance. Buyers need to prove strength above 4,356 first. Main view: gold can recover toward 4,378 and 4,416 if 4,315 holds and 4,356 breaks. If price rejects from this resistance area, sellers may take control again toward 4,279. No confirmation means no trade. Do you think gold can break the downtrend line this week, or will sellers defend 4,356 again?

EURUSD: Bears Remain in Control Ahead of FOMC

📰 Fundamental News & Price Action EUR/USD is facing downside pressure as the market focuses on today’s FOMC meeting. Reuters reports that the market is pricing in around a 93% probability of a 25 bps rate hike, taking the Fed funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The USD remains supported by expectations of tighter monetary policy and elevated US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 bps to 2.50% last week, but the EUR remained under pressure following the decision as markets remained concerned about the economic impact of higher interest rates. 📈 Key Resistance Levels & EMAs 🔴 SELL Zone: 1.1610 – 1.1617 * Strong resistance on the H1 timeframe. * Confluences with the previous accumulation/breakdown area. → If price retraces into this zone but gets rejected, this could be an area to watch for SELL signals. 🔴 Near-term SELL Zone: 1.1567 – 1.1574 * Currently positioned above the market price. * Supported by EMA confluence and a previous supply zone. → This is an important area to monitor for price reaction before expecting further downside. 🟢 BUY Zone: 1.1522 – 1.1527 * Demand zone near the current low. → If price continues lower and shows a strong reaction from this area, a technical rebound could develop. EMA Structure Price is currently trading below the EMA20, EMA50, and the longer-term EMAs, keeping the H1 structure tilted toward the bearish side. However, price is already relatively close to support, so chasing SELL entries around 1.1545 is not particularly attractive from a risk-to-reward perspective.

Can the Rupee Survive the 2026 Global Oil Shock?

Macroeconomics and Central Bank Policy The US dollar surged toward multi-month highs against the Indian rupee in September 2026. USD/INR recently tested resistance near 96.10, though it remains below its July 2026 record above 96.90. High energy prices and elevated US Treasury yields drive persistent dollar demand. India’s consumer price inflation accelerated to 4.82 percent in August. Wholesale inflation surged past 9.9 percent during the same period. The Reserve Bank of India faces an intense economic balancing act. Financial institutions predict USD/INR will trade between 95.50 and 98.00 by late 2026. Crédit Agricole expects potential RBI interest rate hikes starting in the fourth quarter. Higher interest rates could cool domestic inflation and stabilize currency capital flows. Geopolitics and Geostrategy Global geopolitical turmoil directly impacts emerging market currency valuations. Conflict in the Middle East pushed Brent crude prices beyond 107 dollars per barrel. India imports nearly 89 percent of its domestic crude oil requirements, a record level. Soaring energy import bills widen the current account deficit rapidly. Geostrategic trade realignments force India to diversify energy suppliers. India negotiates bilateral trade agreements settled directly in local currencies. However, global market sentiment still favors the US dollar during geopolitical crises. Foreign institutional investors pull capital from emerging markets to seek dollar safety. Business Models and Trade Trends Indian corporate balance sheets face increasing foreign exchange vulnerability. Importers pay higher rupee costs for essential raw materials and machinery. Conversely, service exporters benefit temporarily from a weaker domestic currency. Software services and business process firms record higher rupee-denominated earnings. Major banks adjust foreign exchange risk management models for corporate clients. Financial institutions encourage hedging strategies to lock in stable exchange rates. Corporations adopt multi-currency treasuries to buffer against extreme dollar volatility. Strategic hedging preserves corporate operating margins during currency depreciation cycles. Management and Leadership Reserve Bank of India leadership acts decisively to curb currency volatility. RBI officials intervene repeatedly in forex markets by selling US dollars. The central bank utilizes dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps to manage systemic liquidity. Market intervention prevents panic selling without suppressing long-term market trends. Federal Reserve policy decisions heavily dictate global currency movements. Markets anticipate potential US Fed rate adjustments to combat domestic inflation pressures. Divergent central bank policies create interest rate differentials between both economies. Strong central bank leadership maintains institutional credibility during market turbulence. High-Tech, FinTech, and Patent Analysis High-tech financial infrastructure transforms modern currency trading operations. India leads global adoption of instant real-time digital payment architectures. Patent filings reveal massive growth in cross-border payment protocols and blockchain settlement networks. FinTech startups patent automated hedging algorithms for small enterprise exporters. Advanced artificial intelligence platforms analyze real-time foreign exchange liquidity flows. Machine learning algorithms detect market anomalies and predict short-term currency shifts. Financial institutions deploy algorithmic execution models to optimize foreign currency transactions. Technology lowers transaction costs and increases market efficiency across forex desks. Pharmaceutical Science and High-Tech Exports India’s pharmaceutical sector provides a critical structural defense for the rupee. Indian generic drug manufacturers export billions in life-saving medications worldwide. The sector earns substantial foreign currency revenues, offsetting raw material import costs. Advanced pharmaceutical research drives high-value intellectual property exports to global markets. High-tech manufacturing hubs attract substantial foreign direct investment inflows. Sovereign wealth funds allocate capital toward Indian technology and green energy projects. Long-term investment inflows provide essential structural support for the Indian currency. Innovation in high-value exports helps buffer against global commodity shocks.

XAUUSD – PINNED 4,270–4,354, WAITING FOR FOMC!

Leo re-read your chart: the scenario lines up almost perfectly with the levels drawn – both the 4,341–4,351 turn zone and the two arrows at 4,486 / 4,202. Gold sits at 4,322.80, swept the low at 4,275.60 then reclaimed 4,340.79 (+0.66%). The range is holding. 🌍 REALTIME MACRO DXY hovers at 99.61–99.70, near its range top – USD's weak spot, the higher it goes the more room to be sold when news lands. US10Y touched 5.00% for a fifth straight session and still weighs on gold, yet gold holds 4,320 – structural demand is intact. Two markers tonight: 19:30 – Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.8%, prior -0.6%) and 01:00 – Fed Funds Rate + Dot Plot, followed by Chair Warsh's press conference at 01:30. The rate bet is split: ~52% hold / ~46% hike 25bp. The key point: if the Fed hikes exactly 25bp without extra hawkishness → "sell the rumor, buy the fact" → USD gets sold back → gold rallies. For gold to collapse to 4,202 you need a real surprise: a 50bp hike, a hawkish Dot Plot, or a hard-line Warsh. 📉 CHART EVIDENCE Live price 4,334.42. Horizontal lines: 4,410 → 4,340 (bottom of the yellow band) → 4,320 → ~4,290 → 4,270 → 4,240 (TURN H4) → 4,200. The yellow TURN H1 band: 4,340–4,355 matches your 4,341–4,351 turn zone. A green arrow fires from 4,355 above 4,460 (target 4,486), a red arrow runs from 4,235 down to 4,200 (target 4,202). Seven-point zig-zag: 4,340 ↑ 4,320 ↓ 4,340 ↑ 4,280 ↓ 4,320 ↑ 4,270 ↓ 4,340 ↑. The chart shows no EMA/RSI/volume – pure S/R. You mapped 7 of 7 levels. 🧠 WHY PRICE MOVES THIS WAY Leg 1 – up to 4,341–4,351: price sits right under the yellow band, and the 4,275–4,278 sweep printed a Higher Low on M15. Pre-news flow typically pushes price to the range top to build liquidity – taking the 4,340 high and hunting short stops. Leg 2 – pullback to 4,317 / 4,288 / 4,270: none of these are random – 4,317≈4,320 is a repeatedly tested S/R; 4,288≈4,290 is the mid-range line where institutions rebalance; 4,270 is the sideways floor and the stop cluster for every long. Nobody wants full size before a release, DXY is pinned near its high and US10Y is at 5%, so price gets dragged back to equilibrium. Leg 3 – back to 4,341–4,351: once both ends are swept, a fresh buying wave forms, confirming a two-sided compression – enough stored energy to break out after the news. After the news: a Retail Sales miss or a dovish Warsh → break 4,354 → 4,410 → 4,460 → 4,486. Strong Retail Sales plus a hawkish Fed → break 4,270 → 4,240 → 4,202. ⚔️ PLAN & ADVICE Pre-news: SELL scalp at 4,341–4,351 on an M1/M5 Pinbar or bearish CHoCH, SL 4,362, TPs 4,317 → 4,288 → 4,270. BUY scalp at 4,288 or 4,270 on a bullish reaction candle, SL 4,258, TPs 4,317 → 4,341 → 4,351. 4,320 is chop – do not trade it. Post-news: don't click for the first 5–15 minutes; spreads widen and price whipsaws both ways. Wait for price to reach 4,270–4,240 or 4,354–4,410, then read the M5 reaction. Enter only on a Pinbar/CHoCH at the turn zone. Invalidation: M15 close above 4,365 → cancel the bearish scenario. M15 close below 4,258 → cancel the bullish scenario, confirming the path to 4,240–4,202. Advice: 50% size; non-professionals stay out and wait 30 minutes after Warsh's press conference. Don't chase shorts into 4,270–4,240 pre-news – the hike is largely priced in and this is the classic trap. Don't chase longs into 4,340–4,350 while DXY is near its high. Move SL to breakeven at TP1, and don't hold through 01:00 unless in profit. Risk management > prediction – survive tonight and you keep capital for next week. Disclaimer: for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Confirm M1/M5 signals before entering. — Leo 🥇⚔️

USD/CHF: news flow leaning bullish — the net read

USD/CHF did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: ++ Why markets have left the Fed little choice but to hike rates ++ Stock futures edge higher ahead of pivotal Fed rate decision: Live updates + China’s slower loan growth is the new normal, central bank governor says 62 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)

FED DAY - REBOUND INTO RESISTANCE — SELLERS READY?

Gold is attempting a technical rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel, but the broader H4 structure remains bearish. After falling toward the 4,250–4,280 area, price has started to recover and is currently around 4,325. However, this rebound is still developing below the descending trendline, meaning buyers have not yet produced the structural confirmation needed for a reversal. From a macro perspective, today is dominated by the FOMC decision. Markets have priced in more than a 90% probability of a 25bp rate hike, while the U.S. 10Y yield recently moved above 5% and the USD remains firm. Higher yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to create headwinds for non-yielding Gold. The bigger catalyst, however, will be Fed forward guidance rather than the rate decision itself. With the hike largely priced in, a hawkish Fed — particularly signals that rates may remain higher for longer — could strengthen USD/yields and pressure Gold back toward the lower channel. Conversely, a less-hawkish message could trigger a stronger short-covering rebound. Technically, the immediate resistance is around 4,340–4,360, where the rebound meets the descending trendline and the marked Demand zone. If Gold reaches this area and fails to break through, sellers could regain control and target 4,260–4,280, followed by the major 4,230–4,240 Supply zone. Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias If Gold rebounds into 4,340–4,360 but remains below the descending trendline, the recovery can be treated as a corrective move. A rejection here could send price back toward 4,280, with a break potentially extending toward 4,230–4,240. Bullish Scenario A confirmed H4 breakout above 4,340–4,360 and the descending trendline would weaken the bearish structure. In that case, Gold could recover toward 4,390–4,420, with 4,450 as the next resistance. At this stage, Lucas does not favor chasing the current rebound. The better confirmation is either a rejection from the trendline to follow the bearish flow, or a clean H4 breakout above the trendline before considering that sellers are losing control. KEY LEVELS: 🔴 4,340–4,360 — Demand + descending trendline resistance 🔴 4,390–4,420 — Next recovery resistance 🟢 4,260–4,280 — Lower-channel target 🟢 4,230–4,240 — Major Supply BIAS: BEARISH — WAIT FOR THE TRENDLINE REJECTION OR CONFIRMED BREAKOUT.

USDJPY SELL 156.30

On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY has stabilized and rebounded; attention should now be focused on the resistance near 156.30. This level serves as a potential short-entry point for a bearish Bat pattern and also lies within a previous supply zone.

Bullish pressure builds?

Ninja (USD/JPY) is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could bounce towards the 1st resistance. Pivot: 154.51 1st Support: 153.31 1st Resistance: 156.24 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.

Gold May Recover If It Breaks Above 4,340

📊 Market Overview: XAU/USD is trading around 4,320–4,330 USD, recovering from the low near 4,275 USD in previous sessions. Buying pressure is improving as gold finds support following the sharp decline. However, the USD remains elevated and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5% before easing slightly, continuing to weigh on gold. The market is now closely focused on the Fed’s rate decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments, which could trigger strong volatility in XAU/USD. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance: 4,335–4,345 4,360–4,375 • Nearest Support: 4,305–4,295 4,280–4,270 • EMA: Price is recovering above the EMA 09 on lower timeframes, indicating improving short-term buying momentum. However, the H1/H4 structure still needs a break above 4,340 to confirm a clearer recovery. • Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: Price has formed a strong rebound from the 4,275 area, indicating the emergence of dip-buying pressure. On M15/M30, bullish momentum is improving, but the 4,335–4,345 zone could attract profit-taking. H1 needs to hold above 4,305 to maintain the recovery structure. If price breaks above 4,345 with increasing volume, the upside could extend toward 4,360–4,375. Conversely, a strong rejection around 4,335–4,345 followed by a break below 4,305 could bring selling pressure back. H4 remains cautious as gold continues to be affected by a strong USD and elevated U.S. yields. 📌 Outlook: Gold may continue to recover in the short term if it breaks and holds above 4,340–4,345. In that case, the next target could be 4,360–4,375. Conversely, if price fails to break 4,335–4,345 and falls below 4,295, gold could retest 4,280–4,270. 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: 🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: 4.342–4.345 🎯 TP: 40/80/200/300 pips ❌ SL: 4.350 🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 4.295–4.292 🎯 TP: 40/80/200/300 pips ❌ SL: 4.287

GOLD: Gold H1 Analysis – September 16

📰 Fundamental News & Gold Price Action Gold is recovering toward 4,328, but the market remains extremely cautious ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. Reuters reported that Gold was up around 0.8% as investors awaited the Fed’s decision, while the market is currently pricing in approximately a 92.4% probability of a 25 bps rate hike. The USD is also holding near multi-week highs amid expectations that the Fed will maintain a tighter monetary policy stance. → Therefore, the FOMC decision, and especially Powell’s remarks and the dot plot, will be the biggest catalysts of the day, potentially triggering significant volatility in XAUUSD. 📊 Key Resistance Levels & EMAs 🔴 SELL ZONE: 4,355 – 4,370 * This is an important supply zone on the chart. * It is located near the long-term EMA around 4,362. * The zone also sits below the descending trendline extending from the early-month high. → If price retraces into this zone and shows clear rejection, I would continue to prioritize SELL setups. ⚪ Zone: 4,315 – 4,305 * Price is currently trading around this area. * It is located near the medium-term EMA around 4,306. → Since this zone is very close to the current price, the **risk-to-reward ratio (R:R)** is not particularly attractive. It is better suited for waiting for confirmation rather than chasing an entry. 🟢 BUY ZONE: 4,250 – 4,262 * This is a demand zone that has triggered multiple price reactions. → If Gold drops sharply into this area and forms a bullish rejection, a BUY setup could be considered. → If this zone is clearly broken, the bearish structure would be further reinforced. 📌 Summary The H1 structure remains bearish, with 4,355–4,370 acting as a key SELL zone. The 4,315–4,305 area is too close to the current price, so the R:R is not particularly attractive. If Gold continues to decline, 4,250–4,262 will be an important BUY zone to watch. 👉 Key Levels: 4,365 / 4,350 / 4,325 / 4,300 / 4,260 Bias: 🔴 Bearish – prioritize SELL on rallies, but remain especially cautious ahead of the FOMC.