Continuare17 sept., 13:24
USA Rare Earth (USAR) LONG — 12H ALMA Re-entry (WR 75% · avg RR
NASDAQ:USAR · 12H · long only.
(Context: USA Rare Earth — Round Top TX mine-to-magnet · Serra Verde Brazil · NdFeB magnets — policy / magnet / dilution beta on the 12H ALMA Averaging template.)
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█ RESEARCH HUB
Category: US stocks sentiment 58.8 (Greed) — built from 440 locked notes (193 constructive / 115 risk-off / 92 mixed). Drivers: AES / AVB constructive vs ACX / XLE risk-off.
Sector: US · Industrials 68.0 (Greed) — built from 4 locked notes (2 constructive / 0 risk-off / 1 mixed). Thin Industrials panel; name path sits on the issuer tape below.
Asset: negative (Hub window). USA Rare Earth ~−4% with MP Materials ~−5% on thaw-hope headlines — both names on the same tape.
Tape:
- 2026-09-04 · mixed · TMRC + Serra Verde closed; tape still flat after the combination print.
Calendar:
- 2026-09-17 · FOMC meeting · macro/unlinked · policy
- 2026-09-24 · Trump–Xi White House meeting · macro/category · geopolitics
- 2026-10-01 · CEO transition Humpton → Moraitis · direct · governance
Hub verdict: Category Greed 58.8 and Industrials Greed 68 sit behind a negative name window : thaw-hope headlines cut USAR ~−4% with MP ~−5%, and the 04 Sep TMRC + Serra Verde close left tape flat. Hub frames a post-deal digestion long on the Averaging clock — repair grind under leftover deal shelves, with 17 Sep FOMC and the 01 Oct CEO handoff still on the dated calendar.
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█ MARKET EDGE
Long Edge 59.7 · Short Edge −54.7 ( 16 Sep snap ~ 15.34 · fill ~ 15.68 ).
Built from: 1H–3D below-EMA time stretch · 1D–1W ALMA OVERHEAT-S · PA fractal lows · SMC/TL odds at the fill — hard discount lean after the re-arm.
Positive factors
- EMA — 1H Below · Cur S:40 vs Avg S:14.4 · Dev +2.6% — execution-ladder below-session overheated vs a normal mean-reversion template
https://www.tradingview.com/x/agvBpyqJ/
- EMA — 4H Below · Cur S:25 vs Avg S:13.8 · Dev +12.3% — 4H deeply time-stretched below the mean into the arm
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mLUxFAy0/
- EMA — 1D Below · Cur S:13 vs Avg S:8.7 · Dev +13.2% — daily still on the short side of the mean, stretched vs its own average run
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gRG2AKL0/
- EMA — 3D Below · Cur S:20 vs Avg S:5.4 · Dev +22.4% — slow clock deeply time-stretched Below (mean-reversion fuel)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/WjckfkwL/
- ALMA — 1H LONG · L:1 vs LAvg:3.0 — young above-session at/near the band after the 12H fill
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hy3RGyYu/
- ALMA — 1D SHORT OVERHEAT-S · S:13 vs SAvg:3.7 — daily band still short and overheated vs its own average run
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VbbRHx4n/
- ALMA — 3D SHORT OVERHEAT-S · S:4 vs SAvg:3.4 — slow band stretched below
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RXc4lTug/
- ALMA — 1W SHORT OVERHEAT-S · S:4 vs SAvg:2.7 — weekly band stretched below; Averaging template matches this counter-trend inventory
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lew6sgt1/
- SMC — 1D FVG Enter Bull ~ 15.71 ( 14 Sep ) · bounce up B 55.7% · break down Br44.3% (n=61) — mild demand-hold skew over the fill cluster
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bzEiIV5G/
- TL — Support Break ( 10 Sep ) · bounce up B 57% · break down Br43% (n=49) — post-break bounce-up fuel on the mean-reversion clock
https://www.tradingview.com/x/z0PWsTGh/
- Score skew long ~59.7 vs short ~−54.7 — board hard-discount lean
Negative factors
- EMA — 1W Below · Cur S:4 vs Avg S:8.6 · Dev +19.7% — weekly below-session still young on the slowest TF; selloff can extend
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pGA6CWFI/
- ALMA — 4H SHORT · S:4 vs SAvg:4.1 — 4H below-band session still at typical length (young vs stretch)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oAXjY92f/
- SMC — 4H FVG Enter Bull ~ 15.26 ( 16 Sep 13:30 ) · bounce up B 50% · break down Br50% (n=112) — even hold vs flush at the fill print
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rT4p7EOs/
- SMC — 4H FVG Raid Bear ~ 15.26 ( 16 Sep 13:30 ) · reject down B 55.7% · break up Br44.3% (n=122) — nearby supply raid still leans reject-down
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FlLcFoC3/
- TL — Resistance Break ( 15 Sep ) · reject down B 63% · break up Br37% (n=46) — fresh resistance-break ceiling; reject-down skew leads
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gFXkGW8c/
- PA — Fractal Low Formed and Fractal Low Broken — local low already taken through
- EMA — 3D fake-S 43% — slow-clock stretch can reverse as a one-bar fake as often as it holds
https://www.tradingview.com/x/we1P9yGI/
- Small-cap rare-earth beta can gap through the −10% zone (~ 14.11 ) before the ~15×12H sample hold completes
- First lot only (1 of 4 on each twin template) — thin day-1 cushion on a re-arm after the 15 Sep stop
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█ DESK
Hub is Greed on US stocks / Industrials while the name window is negative (thaw-hope fade with MP, tape still flat after Serra Verde, 15 Sep stop). Edge is a hard discount lean (Long 59.7 vs Short −54.7) from 1H–3D below-EMA overheat plus 1D–1W ALMA OVERHEAT-S — with the 12H fill ~$15.68 already washing toward ~$15.34 on the same session. Fork: Hub risk-off on the issuer vs Edge discount on the bar. Alignment for the template: twin Averaging re-arm into post-stop digestion on the bar close. Sister 8H template on the same bar is desk twin — one Idea on 12H.
Bar-close refill on 12H (and twin 8H) at 16 Sep 13:30 UTC ~ $15.68 after the 04 Sep cycle booked the −10% exit on 15 Sep ~ $15.54 — process re-entry first, thaw-hope headline second.
Takeaway: the 12H ALMA strategy and 75% WR / 3.8 avg RR support a twin first-lot re-arm ~$15.68 into a hard-discount Edge, with 1H–3D below-EMA overheat, 1D–1W ALMA OVERHEAT-S, daily bull FVG bounce-up skew at ~15.71, and 10 Sep support-break bounce-up fuel — while weekly Below stays young, 4H ALMA sits at typical short-session length, 15 Sep resistance-break still rejects down 63%, 4H bear-FVG raid holds a 56% reject-down skew at ~15.26, 3D fake-S 43%, and a name-level thaw-hope fade keep the path a repair grind; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path.
Base case: follow 12H (and sister 8H) ALMA Averaging · hold/add on qualifying bars while the mid-$15 wash digests · mean-revert toward leftover mid-Aug deal shelves if materials tape holds above the stop zone.
Bear case: weekly young Below extends · 15 Sep resistance-break reject-down path wins · thaw-hope / FOMC / CEO-transition tape reprices · template posts −10% toward ~$14.11 from the working average · wait for the next bar-close arm.
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https://www.tradingview.com/x/v31YscCO/
█ STRATEGY
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1/1, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from the working average.
Lots (1 of 4 on the 12H Idea clock; twin 8H same fill):
- Lot 1 — 16 Sep 13:30 UTC ~ 15.68
Working average ~ 15.68 . Hard stop −10% from that average ~ 14.11 .
Adds 2–4 stay 25% per bar if lower closes qualify.
Strategy Tester (USAR 12H):
Win rate 75% · profit factor 2.4 · max drawdown 4.6%
Avg winning trade +33.8% · avg losing trade −8.8%
Typical hold ~15×12H bars on winners — US small-cap mean-reversion grid on the rare-earth template · 97-trade sample
Exits when the Above-ALMA run clears its historical average (min diff) or the −10% hard stop from the working average.
Chart: NASDAQ:USAR 12H — ALMA Averaging Strategy.
Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.
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