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Prima relatare14 sept., 15:58USDJPY Set To Fall! SELL!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DAJygLGQ/ My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 154.44 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 154.10 My Stop Loss - 154.68 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
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Continuare14 sept., 20:55USDJPY | Bullish Recovery From Demand Zone
After rejecting the lower support region around 153.20-153.30, USDJPY is showing signs of strength while holding above the highlighted demand zone. The blue area is acting as an important short-term support zone. As long as price remains supported above this region, buyers may attempt another push toward the higher resistance levels. 🎯 Bullish Targets Target 1: 154.798 Target 2: 155.688 Target 3: 156.500 - 156.650 supply zone 📊 Chart Perspective ✅ Demand zone reaction visible ✅ Higher low structure developing ✅ Potential continuation toward range highs ✅ Risk remains if support loses strength This analysis reflects a possible bullish scenario based on current price structure and support/resistance behavior. Always manage risk according to your trading plan. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
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Continuare15 sept., 04:02FIB & MASTER PATTERN — EDUCATIONAL USDJPY | Live Example
📌 Learn this pattern. Live example on the chart. ═══════════════════════════════ PART 1 — THE MASTER PATTERN Think of the market like a spring being wound. It moves in three phases. 1. CONTRACTION — where we are now Price goes quiet. Small candles, tight range, going nowhere. That's the orange box. Not boredom. Accumulation. Big players quietly building positions while the market waits — usually because something macro is coming. This week: Fed on the 16th, BOJ on the 18th. The market is holding its breath. 2. EXPANSION — what comes next Price breaks out of the box. It usually pokes out BOTH sides first — up then down, or down then up. This is the market grabbing orders from traders on both sides before it commits. 3. TREND Once both sides are swept, price picks a direction and runs. That's the real move. ═══════════════════════════════ PART 2 — THE FIB & THE POI ( MY "POSITION OF INTEREST" ) When price makes a big move, it rarely runs in a straight line. It pulls back first. The question is how far. I measure it with a Fibonacci retracement — drawn from the top of the drop (160.406) to the bottom (152.887). PREMIUM vs DISCOUNT — the simple version Think of it like shopping. The 0.5 level (156.646) is the halfway mark. It splits the move in two: - BELOW 0.5 = DISCOUNT. Price is cheap. Buyers want in. - ABOVE 0.5 = PREMIUM. Price is expensive. Sellers want in. Nobody sells cheap. Nobody buys expensive. That's the whole idea. I'm looking for shorts — so I need price back up in premium before I'm interested. That's why 0.5 is the floor of my POI. It's the exact point where price becomes expensive enough to sell. Inside premium: - 0.62 (157.549) — the golden pocket. Where most institutional pullbacks end. - 0.72 (158.301) — the deepest a pullback normally goes before the move is dead. THE RULE Inside the box = normal, healthy pullback. Bearish structure survives. Close above 0.72 = it was never a pullback. It's a reversal. 158.301 is the line. Not a feeling — a measured level. ═══════════════════════════════ PART 3 — WHERE THAT LEAVES US Nothing is decided yet. Price is still coiled inside the contraction box. - Expansion resolves DOWN → bearish view holds, target below 152.09 - Expansion resolves UP and closes above the POI → I'm wrong. Reversal. I don't get to choose. The market does. WHAT I'M WATCHING Wait for price to clear the box on both sides. The side swept LAST is usually the fake. The direction after that is the trend. Don't trade inside the box. That's where accounts go to die. ASK ME IF ITS UNCLEAR..I WILL RESPOND IN DUE TIME. Not financial advice — DYOR. Kwagga
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Continuare15 sept., 05:49USDJPY W38 — the recoveries are getting weaker
US Treasury yields have moved above 5%, yet USDJPY remains well below its July high. Earlier sharp declines were eventually recovered. The rebound after July stopped short of restoring the previous peak, and September brought another substantial decline. That combination makes USDJPY worth watching into this week’s Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings. The question is whether the recent yen strength survives the announcements and begins to affect risk assets more broadly. Japanese equities already show a weaker structure, while Nasdaq provides a useful test outside Japan. For the broader stress thesis to develop, those markets need to do more than react to the same headline. They need to sustain the move after the initial volatility passes. THE CHANGE IN USDJPY https://www.tradingview.com/x/WsmZ8LPx/ The daily chart shows why the recovery matters as much as the initial decline. Several sharp selloffs earlier in the year were followed by substantial rebounds. Buyers eventually recovered the lost ground, and USDJPY went on to trade higher. The more recent sequence has been different. After the July peak, the pair fell sharply and recovered only part of the decline. The August rebound remained below that peak. September then produced another leg lower, leaving the current recovery beneath both earlier highs. This gives us an observable change: buyers have become less effective at repairing the damage after a selloff. A carry position typically combines borrowing in a lower-yielding currency with exposure to a higher-yielding asset. Its interest income accumulates gradually, while an adverse currency move can create losses quickly. A strengthening funding currency therefore becomes more consequential when it persists long enough to outweigh the income that made the position attractive. That mechanism offers one possible explanation for a weaker USDJPY recovery. The chart alone cannot establish how much carry exposure has been reduced or who is selling. It also cannot identify an intervention from the shape of a candle. Official intervention, changing policy expectations and position adjustment can all produce sharp moves. For this analysis, the useful evidence is what follows: whether buyers recover the decline, or whether the rebound fails and another lower low develops. THE RATES TEST https://www.tradingview.com/x/svufKuyg/ The US10Y snapshot shows yields above 5% and an upward trend into the event window. All else equal, higher US yields can support demand for dollar assets. USDJPY’s failure to return to its July high therefore deserves attention alongside that rates backdrop. There is an essential qualification. The US yield is only one side of the comparison. Japanese yields, expected policy paths and the maturity of the exposure all matter. The ten-year yield also contains inflation and term-premium components; it is not a direct measure of the short-term funding return available to a carry trader. A sustained USDJPY decline alongside falling US yields would be consistent with a reduction in the dollar’s rate advantage. A decline while US yields remain elevated would raise a more interesting question, but answering it would still require the Japanese side of the spread. This is why the response to the meetings matters. A policy decision can move short-term rate expectations and longer-dated bond yields differently. The useful test is whether the resulting rates environment helps USDJPY recover—and whether that recovery holds. THE JAPAN TEST https://www.tradingview.com/x/wnJju7JW/ The Nikkei chart has failed to recover its June peak. The August rally crossed the descending trendline, but it did not establish a lasting upward structure. Selling returned, and the index subsequently moved lower through a series of rebounds and renewed declines. That failed improvement is more informative than the trendline crossing itself. Buyers managed to change the appearance of the chart temporarily, but they did not regain control of the broader sequence. A stronger yen can affect Japanese equities through several channels. It can reduce the yen value of overseas earnings for some exporters, alter investment incentives and increase pressure on positions funded in yen. These effects vary across companies and portfolios, so yen appreciation does not translate mechanically into an index decline. The recent September lows provide the first practical test. If USDJPY weakens further while Japanese equities continue defending those lows, the currency move has yet to produce the equity deterioration required by this thesis. If the Nikkei breaks below them, attempts to recover the broken area and then turns lower again, the evidence becomes stronger. A subsequent move through the July low would extend that deterioration to a larger part of the chart. These are separate stages, and each needs its own confirmation. THE GLOBAL TEST https://www.tradingview.com/x/SXY6Vwx2/ Nasdaq tests whether the weakness is broadening beyond Japan. The chart here is the Pepperstone NAS100 cash CFD, so its session boundaries and gaps should be read on that basis. The recent opening gap and rebound attracted attention, but the gap itself does not establish a directional edge. The more useful observation is that the rebound has so far failed to restore the earlier September highs, leaving price back near the lower part of its recent structure. The next recovery matters. If buyers reclaim the breakdown area, establish a higher low and sustain the advance, Nasdaq would be absorbing the pressure. That would weaken the argument that the currency move is becoming a broader risk event. If rebounds continue to fail and the recent lows give way while USDJPY and the Nikkei are also weakening, the evidence for a wider adjustment increases. Even then, simultaneous declines would show participation across markets rather than prove a common funding cause. US equities can fall because of yields, earnings expectations or other developments independently of the yen. Evidence from positioning, credit and funding markets would be needed to make the stronger causal claim. WHAT WOULD CONFIRM IT The sequence begins with USDJPY sustaining its weakness beyond the initial central-bank reaction. A daily close below the September low shown in the snapshot would provide the first additional evidence. A recovery that fails to regain that broken area, followed by another lower low, would make the change more convincing. Japanese equities then need to participate. On the four-hour Nikkei chart, I would look for a close below the recent September lows and a subsequent failed recovery of that area. Nasdaq would provide the next layer if it also closes below its recent lows and fails to regain them on the rebound. These conditions distinguish a brief excursion through support from a market beginning to sustain lower prices. A single wick does not satisfy them, and a closing break remains provisional until the response becomes visible. The complete sequence would strengthen the case for a broader risk adjustment associated with persistent yen strength. It would still leave the scale and source of any forced position reduction open. WHAT WOULD INVALIDATE IT A sharp yen rally that is rapidly reversed would undermine the immediate event thesis. If USDJPY sweeps its September low, recovers it, establishes a higher low and breaks above the intervening rebound high, sellers would have failed to sustain the next leg. A sustained recovery above the August rebound high would challenge the larger sequence of weakening recoveries. That would be a more substantial structural reversal than one strong session after an announcement. The broader stress case also needs to be judged separately from the currency view. If the Nikkei recovers its recent September highs and Nasdaq repairs its breakdown while USDJPY remains soft, yen strength may persist without the equity transmission this post is testing. The W38 assessment belongs at Friday’s close, using the reference swings visible in these snapshots. If the breaks and failed recoveries have not developed by then, the weekly stress thesis remains unconfirmed. The observation window should not be extended simply to preserve the argument. THE LIMITS This is a framework for interpreting price reactions. No historical probability has been established here for this exact combination of USDJPY, yields and equity structures. The charts were captured on September 15. USDJPY is shown on the daily timeframe; the Nikkei and Nasdaq CFDs are shown on four-hour charts. Their session conventions differ, and the reference swings are those visible at the time of writing. US10Y does not establish the full US–Japan rate differential. Price action does not reveal the size of carry positions, and a stronger yen can coexist with resilient equities. The useful change so far is that USDJPY’s recoveries have become less complete. This week tests whether that behaviour persists—and whether the equity markets begin sustaining the same deterioration.
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Continuare15 sept., 07:24USDJPY Is Going Down! Short!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/f4ol8FjL/ Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 154.878. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 153.251. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
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Continuare15 sept., 08:17USDJPY
📈 USDJPY | 2H Timeframe — Bullish Breakout Setup USDJPY is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal and continuation after a strong bearish move earlier in the month. Price has spent several sessions consolidating within a defined range and is now attempting to break above the range resistance around 155.00, supported by improving momentum. 🔍 Technical Analysis Key observations from the 2H chart: 📈 Price has formed a base after the previous bearish trend. 🔓 Price is breaking above the recent consolidation/range resistance. 🐊 The Alligator lines are beginning to align bullishly, indicating improving upside momentum. 📊 RSI has formed a bullish divergence from the recent lows. 🚀 Price is now trading above the short-term moving-average structure, supporting the bullish bias. 🎯 A successful continuation could open the way toward the 156.80 resistance area. 🎯 Trade Setup Pair: USDJPY Timeframe: 2H Direction: BUY 🟢 Entry: 155.05 – 155.10 Stop Loss: 153.325 Take Profit (TP1): 156.808 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:1 📌 Trade Logic The setup is based on the combination of: Bullish RSI Divergence + Range Breakout + Alligator Alignment + Price Action The key level to watch is 155.00. If price maintains acceptance above this area and buyers continue to build momentum, the next objective is around 156.80.
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Continuare15 sept., 08:45USDJPY pulls back ahead of FOMC
USDJPY has been consolidating in a tight range around the 154 area and is now attempting to push toward the upper boundary. With the US dollar supported by rising Treasury yields, the pair could extend its recovery over the coming sessions. USDJPY has been under pressure since the beginning of September as expectations for tighter Bank of Japan policy encouraged some unwinding of carry trades. However, the interest-rate differential between the US and Japan remains wide, while the recent surge in US Treasury yields continues to provide support for the dollar. From a technical perspective, USDJPY is also recovering from potentially oversold levels according to the stochastic indicator. With price trading between the lower Bollinger Band and the 20-day moving average above, there is room for the pair to recover further if the current momentum continues. But this week will be heavily driven by central banks, with the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday and Bank of Japan’s decision on Friday. A more hawkish BOJ could strengthen the yen and challenge our bullish USDJPY setup. Any dovish surprise from the FED could do that too, otherwise conditions for the trade won’t change. Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
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Continuare15 sept., 12:03LONG USDJPY
Price has been consolidating within a tight range, showing clear signs of accumulation. A strong breakout from this range could trigger a significant move to the upside.
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Continuare15 sept., 14:16usdjpy buy trade idea.
i am going long on usdjpy at this strong weekly and daily demand zone.
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Continuare15 sept., 18:34USDJPY LOCAL SHORT|
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oSmTSLm5/ ✅USDJPY the recovery is approaching the broken supply level from below, where a bearish breaker mitigation may reject the advance and restore downside order flow toward the target.Time Frame 6H. SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
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Continuare15 sept., 19:15USDJPY | Potential Rejection from Major Supply Zone
USDJPY has rallied into a significant higher-timeframe supply zone around 155.10 - 155.20, where price is also testing the upper boundary of the current bullish structure. The market has respected the ascending trendline throughout the recent advance, but the current area presents a potential reaction point as price approaches a key resistance region that has previously attracted sellers. A rejection from this zone could lead to a corrective move toward nearby support levels and untested liquidity below. 🎯 Bearish Targets ✅ Target 1: 154.80 ✅ Target 2: 154.40 ✅ Target 3: 154.00 For now, I'm watching how price behaves inside the highlighted supply area. A loss of short-term bullish momentum could support a move toward the downside objectives shown on the chart. Note: This is a personal market observation and not financial advice. Always wait for confirmation and manage risk.
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Continuareacum 22 hUSDJPY Buy Project: 1st Entry
Yespin Swing Trading 2.0 We have upside momentum based on the higher timeframe. The Entry was taken after the Low liquidation (as shown in the chart), and the Stop Loss is below the major Low. The Trade is split into 2 orders (50% risk each) with TP1 and TP2. This is my detailed setup: Entry: 154.377 TP1 (~2.75R): 156.266 TP2 (~3.75R): 156.952 SL: 153.690 with 19 ticks tolerance What do you think, guys?
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Continuareacum 12 hUSDJPY : Just an example
This is a simple example of how it works. Previously, we have seen the BIG picture. This is the smaller picture. It is very simple. Of course, to understand, just apply COMMON SENSE and see for yourself. You can see exactly WHERE and WHEN. The R/R is fantastic. This is the beauty. Good luck.
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Continuareacum 12 hUSDJPY GOING UP?!
Here's my quick analysis on USDJPY, most is already explained on the chart We are expecting it to go bullish because of the change of trend Edit : The previous trend was bearish until Double Bottom formed(sign of sellers rejection) and we later got a FLL(price failed to create a new lower low to show a continuation of the downtrend. A CHoC occurred and price broke above our new HH which shows a new possible bullish trend, so we can expect a bullish trend on USDJPY Kindly follow for more technical analysis and feel free to drop your opinion or analysis
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Continuareacum 1 hUSDJPY D1 – Bearish Setup
Hello Trading Fam! 👋 Price is approaching the supply zone after a strong sell-off. The area is acting as resistance, so I’m looking for further downside from this zone. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
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USDJPY | Rising Channel Reaching Major Resistance
USDJPY has been respecting a well-defined ascending channel, printing higher highs and higher lows while gradually pushing into a significant resistance zone around 156.45 - 156.60. The highlighted area represents a major supply and liquidity zone where price may seek resting liquidity above previous highs before showing signs of exhaustion. My primary scenario is a final push into resistance, followed by rejection from the channel highs and a potential rotation toward lower support. The setup remains dependent on price action confirmation within the resistance area. As long as buyers fail to achieve sustained acceptance above the highlighted zone, short-term downside remains a possibility. 🔍 Confluence Factors ✅ Major resistance zone overhead ✅ Ascending channel resistance ✅ Buy-side liquidity above recent highs ✅ Potential rejection from premium price area 🎯 Target 1: 155.50 🎯 Target 2: 155.00 🎯 Target 3: 154.70 ❌ Invalidation: Sustained breakout and acceptance above 156.60 Note: Educational market analysis only. Not financial advice.
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