CADJPY is testing key support around 111.530 following a sustained intraday move lower from resistance near 111.800. Price action is hovering at a decision point, setting up two primary short-term scenarios.
With the tremendous volatility in the daily chart for the S&P 500, the expectation is for follow-through to the upside in Thursday's session.
Another bearish momentum incoming. Price action approached my value area as predicted
USD/JPY OANDA:USDJPY snapped a three-day winning streak and pared some of Wednesday's gains, consolidating around the psychological 156.00 level throughout the Asian trading session on Thursday, September 17, 2026. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ BoJ vs. Fed Monetary Policy: BoJ Rate Hike to 1.25% Tomorrow (31-Year High) vs. Fed's Hawkish Dot Plot The foreign exchange market stands on the brink of a historic monetary policy decision from Tokyo: - ⚡Certainty of BoJ Rate Hike Tomorrow (+25 bps to 1.25%): The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.25% at tomorrow's policy meeting. Markets have also priced in the probability of a further hike in December due to persistent domestic energy inflation pressures. - ⚡USD Strengthening Post-Fed Decision: The Fed's FOMC unanimously raised the benchmark rate by 25 bps on Wednesday night and signaled one additional hike this year via the Dot Plot chart. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted persistent inflation, propelling the US Dollar (DXY) to its highest level since late July. - ⚡US Bond Sector: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is hovering near the 5.0% threshold (a high not seen since April 2007), preventing a sharp slide in USD/JPY ahead of the BoJ announcement. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Price Action Analysis (H4 Timeframe) The H4 structure reveals a significant recovery in bullish momentum following the massive vertical drop from the Higher High (HH) peak around 160.294. The decline was precisely halted at the floor of the Major Demand Zone (the lowest gray box: 152.875 – 153.500), forming a bottoming pattern followed by a series of bullish candles with substantial bodies. At the 156.024 price level, the most recent H4 candle shows consolidation near the latest local peak (156.279). A micro "Break of Structure" (BOS) is visible above the 155.248 green line; the area that previously acted as "Support Become Resistance" (SBR) has now transformed into a strong Support level. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Key Zones: - ⚡Resistance / Supply Zone: The 156.300 – 156.600 range (middle gray box / nearest Supply Zone) and the 158.059 green line level (upper limit of the Major Supply Zone). - ⚡Support / Demand Zone: The 155.248 green line level (lower-middle gray box / local SBR & Demand area) and the 152.875 green line level (lowest gray box / Major Demand Zone). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis Mapping wave cycle movements on the H4 timeframe: ⚡Wave Structure: The impulsive rally from the 152.875 floor to 156.279 is calculated as the impulsive expansion of Wave 1 (or a macro Wave A). ⚡Current Status: The mild consolidation near 156.024 is currently identified as the initial formation of a minor Wave 2 (Corrective Wave) or a sub-wave consolidation prior to the launch of the main expansion. ⚡Projection: Price action is projected to complete this minor consolidation above the 155.248 green line before launching an impulsive Wave 3 push—breaking through the 156.500 resistance and traversing the LVN zone—to target the 158.059 green line.
Gold is currently showing an interesting price-action structure after a strong recovery from the recent lower levels. Price is now moving toward an important resistance area, where the next market reaction could provide clues about the upcoming direction. The chart highlights the recent swing structure, key support and resistance areas, and the reaction zones that are important for understanding market sentiment. A sustained move above the resistance area could strengthen the bullish structure and open the possibility of further upside. For now, I’m focusing on price action, market structure, and confirmation rather than chasing the move. Traders should monitor how Gold behaves around the key levels before making any decision. Key points: • 1H market structure • Strong recovery from lower levels • Important resistance under observation • Breakout + confirmation would be significant • Risk management remains essential This idea is based on technical analysis and market structure. No setup is guaranteed; always manage risk properly.
USD/JPY is holding around 156.100 after a hawkish Fed decision pushed the dollar to a seven-week high against a currency basket. The US regulator raised rates and signaled the possibility of another move by year-end, while two-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since mid-2024. This repricing supports interest rate differentials in favor of the dollar. However, the scope for pair growth is limited by the Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday. The market expects a rate hike to its highest level in 31 years amid persistent inflationary pressures, including those related to expensive energy. More hawkish signals on further increases could quickly strengthen the yen, so the anticipation of the decision reduces the appeal of aggressive dollar buys. Despite the Japanese risk, within the current session, the actual momentum from the Fed remains stronger than expectations for the Bank of Japan, which are already largely priced in. As long as US yields remain high, USD/JPY may continue its moderate rise. The scenario will lose strength if the market begins to price in a faster rate hiking cycle in Japan and demand for the yen noticeably recovers. Trading idea: BUY 156.100, SL 155.700, TP 157.000
Today’s XAUUSD (Gold) analysis — new perspective, same passion. 📊🥇
USDCAD is currently consolidating around the 1.3988 mark following a strong bullish expansion from lower levels. Price is approaching immediate support near 1.3975–1.3980.
AUD/JPY has bounced off the pivot, which acts as pullback support and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance, which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 109.74 1st Support: 109.06 1st Reistance: 111.90 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently consolidating around the 76,370 level on the 15-minute chart. Price is holding at a pivotal juncture, setting up two primary intraday scenarios:
🔹 SPCX price action shows a recovery from the previous descending structure, with price breaking above the falling trendline and developing a series of higher lows. The market has since entered a consolidation phase around the 145–155 area, while the 121–125 region remains a key support zone. Above the current structure, the 215–220 area is highlighted as a major liquidity region and potential resistance. 🔸 If SPCX maintains its structure above the highlighted support, price could continue developing toward higher resistance and the overhead liquidity area, particularly if a breakout above recent highs is confirmed. Traders may wait for price confirmation before considering any trade. If the key support zone fails, the bullish structure could weaken and price might revisit lower levels before establishing a new direction. This technical analysis focuses on SPCX price action, market structure, breakout, support, resistance, and liquidity. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fk16HDa6/ ✅DXY bullish displacement has delivered into the premium supply level and swept nearby buy-side liquidity, creating conditions for a bearish order-flow shift toward the target.Time Frame 8H. SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Natural Gas continues to maintain a bullish trend, with the longer-term fundamental outlook still supporting buyers. Fundamentally, growing U.S. LNG export demand and a tighter global LNG market continue to provide support for Natural Gas. High U.S. production and comfortable inventory levels may still create short-term pressure, but the outlook for expanding LNG demand remains positive over the longer term. Technically, 270 remains a key support level to watch, aligning with the unfilled gap below . If buyers continue to defend this area along with the rising trendline, the current structure could support another move higher. The next upside targets to watch are 283–288 . What about you? What’s your target?
Welcome Good morning everyone, welcome back to another article. Most traders use the words strategy and edge interchangeably, and that single mix up causes more damage than people realise. but They are not the same thing, and confusing them is one of the biggest reasons traders backtest something that looks perfect, take it live, and still lose money. This article breaks down exactly what separates strategy from edge, why both are needed together, and where traders commonly get the two confused. A strategy tells you what to do. An edge is what actually gives you a reason to expect it to work over time. Definitions of Strategy Strategy: the systematic, mechanical approach a trader uses to find and execute trades, including fundamental review, technical analysis, entry crjteria, and risk management. In simple terms: strategy is the process. It's the checklist. It's the part you could write down step by step and hand to someone else to follow. Definitions of Edge Edge: the underlying reason a strategy has a genuine statistical advantage over time, made up of psychology, discipline, timing, and the conditions the strategy is actually applied in. In simple terms: edge is why the strategy works, not just what the strategy says to do. Two traders can run the exact same strategy and get completely different results, because one of them has edge and the other doesn't. Part 1 Strategy lives entirely in the mechanics. It's built from fundamentals such as macro conditions, news events, and asset specific catalysts, combined with technical analysis such as market structure, key levels, and price action signals. Risk management sits inside strategy too, position sizing, stop loss placement, and risk to reward ratios are all part of the systematic process. If you can write it out as a rule, "enter on a bullish engulfing candle at a key support level with stop loss below the wick, risking one percent," that's strategy. It's replicable, mechanical, and doesn't require any feel or intuition to follow. This is the part most traders spend all their time studying, because it's the part that can be backtested, screenshotted, and taught. Part 2 Edge is everything strategy doesn't cover, and it's the reason two people using the same rules end up with different results. Edge includes the discipline to actually follow the strategy without hesitation or second guessing. It includes timing, trading during your strongest session and avoiding sessions where your setups historically underperform, such as low volume periods or major news windows outside your ruleset. It includes emotional control, not skipping the stop loss "just this once," and not increasing size after a win because you feel confident. It includes consistency across hundreds of trades rather than judging performance off the last five. None of this shows up on a backtest, but all of it decides whether the backtest's numbers are ever actually achieved in real trading. Common Issues and Confusions The biggest confusion is assuming a good strategy automatically means you have an edge. A trader can find a genuinely profitable set of rules, backtest it with strong results, and still lose money live, because the edge, the discipline to execute it exactly the same way every time, was never actually there. Another common issue is traders constantly changing strategy when the real problem is a lack of edge. They'll switch from price action to indicators to smart money concepts, blaming the strategy each time, when the actual issue is inconsistent execution, poor timing, or emotional interference that would sabotage any strategy they chose. The reverse also happens. Some traders have strong discipline and self control, a real edge in terms of psychology, but they're applying it to a strategy with no real statistical advantage, so their consistency simply produces consistent losses. Strategy without edge fails because the process is never followed properly. Edge without strategy fails because there's nothing solid actually being executed. You need both, and they need to be evaluated separately when something isn't working, not lumped together as one problem. Example Two traders backtest the same breakout strategy and both find a strong edge on paper. Trader A trades it only during their planned session, follows the stop loss on every single trade, and risks a fixed one percent regardless of recent results. Trader B trades the same setup at random hours around their day job, moves the stop loss when a trade goes against them "because it'll probably come back," and increases risk after a winning streak. Six months later, Trader A's results resemble the backtest closely. Trader B's results look nothing like it, despite using the identical strategy. The strategy was never the variable. The edge was. Conclusion Strategy is the map. Edge is the discipline, timing, and psychology required to actually follow the map the same way every single time. A trader can have a great strategy and zero edge, and a trader can have real discipline applied to a strategy with no genuine advantage, both fail for different reasons. Real, sustainable results only show up when both are built properly and evaluated separately. Before blaming your strategy, ask whether the problem was actually the rules, or whether it was you. If you guys did enjoy this please let me know. I will be posting more in the future.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) OANDA:XAUUSD attracted limited buying interest but struggled to break and hold above the psychological threshold of US$4,300 per troy ounce throughout the Asian trading session on Thursday, September 17, 2026. The precious metal hovered close to the nearly six-week low touched the previous day. Gold's decline was triggered by the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) unanimous decision to raise its benchmark interest rate—the first hike since 2023—accompanied by a super-hawkish "Dot Plot" chart. This coincided with a surge in the 10-year US Treasury yield toward 5.0% and intensified Houthi-Saudi aerial combat in Yemen. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ US Monetary Policy & Kevin Warsh's Remarks: Unanimous Rate Hike (+25 bps) & Signal for One Further Hike in Dot Plot The Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday evening (early Thursday morning WIB) solidified the Greenback's dominance: - ⚡Unanimous Rate Decision & Dot Plot Projections: Fed officials unanimously voted to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). The updated Dot Plot chart confirmed expectations among top Fed officials to implement one additional rate hike before the end of 2026. - ⚡Remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that the rate hike decision was driven by the strength of the US economy, the lack of improvement in inflation trends over the summer, and geopolitical turmoil. Warsh asserted that inflation remained "too high and has persisted for too long." - ⚡Record US Bond Yields (Near 5.0%): The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond held firm near the 5.0% threshold (its highest level since April 2007). High borrowing costs are eroding the appeal of non-yielding commodities like gold. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Price Action Analysis (H4 Timeframe) From a macro perspective, the H4 structure is in a Bearish/Retest phase. After a gradual decline from the Lower High peak at the 4,511.309 green line, gold slid downward and executed a liquidity sweep (a "wick" penetration) below the local Demand Zone (gray box) to the 4,235.165 level. At the 4,291.105 price level, the most recent H4 candle shows a buying rejection reaction (long lower wick) that successfully pushed the price back into the consolidation floor area. This current green candle indicates a temporary rebound push aimed at filling the imbalance area and testing the Support-Turned-Resistance (SBR) zone above it. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Key Zones: - ⚡Resistance / Supply Zone (SBR): The 4,442.941 green line range (middle gray box / primary SBR & HVN area) and the 4,511.309 green line range (Lower High limit / upper Major Supply Zone). - ⚡Support / Demand Zone: The 4,235.165 – 4,260.000 range (lower gray box where the liquidity sweep occurred) and the 4,154.156 green line (lowest Major Demand Zone stronghold). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Orderflow / Volume Profile (VPVR) Analysis The Volume Profile histogram on the right side of the chart provides a highly precise map of institutional liquidity: - ⚡High Volume Node (HVN) / Upper Local Point of Control (POC): A very dense accumulation of volume is visible above the current price, specifically in the 4,380.000 – 4,442.000 range (indicated by the longest histogram protrusion in the middle section). This HVN level acts as a formidable Orderflow resistance barrier. - ⚡Low Volume Node (LVN) / Volume Vacuum Area below 4,235: Below the 4,235.165 level, extending down to the green line at 4,154.156, the volume histogram shows extreme thinning (a volume vacuum). If sellers succeed in breaking through and triggering a solid H4 candle close below the 4,235.165 base, the decline is projected to accelerate rapidly across this volume void, targeting 4,154.156. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis Mapping wave cycle movements on the H4 timeframe: ⚡Wave Structure: The sharp decline from the major peak to the 4,280.000 area low is calculated as Sub-Wave A (or Wave 1). The upward bounce that stalled at the green line (4,511.309) is identified as the formation of Sub-Wave B (a micro zigzag correction). ⚡Current Status: The decline from 4,511.309 to 4,235.165 is calculated as part of the Sub-Wave C expansion (or micro Wave 3). The upward bounce from 4,235.165 to 4,291.105 currently represents the formation of a minor corrective sub-wave (relief rally) to retest the price efficiency area. ⚡Projection: Price action is projected to complete this corrective rebound by testing the SBR/HVN area in the 4,340.000 – 4,400.000 range, before reversing downward to break the 4,235.165 base and target the Major Demand floor at 4,154.156.
To identify potential Bitcoin price scenarios, I conduct a comprehensive analysis across multiple timeframes, moving from the higher timeframes to the lower ones. This approach allows me to establish the broader market context first and then identify more precise areas for potential entries. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/c7VBCJky/ Monthly timeframe I always begin my analysis with the monthly chart. At this stage, the key area is the $82,000–83,000 zone. It is important to treat it as a range rather than one exact price level. Historically, this area has influenced the market on several occasions. In 2025, it acted as support, from which Bitcoin subsequently rallied towards its previous all-time high. The market is now retesting the same area from below, which means it is currently functioning as resistance. Therefore, the long-term timeframe is not yet providing a sufficiently strong or convincing buy signal. In my analysis, I use different colours for levels and chart objects originating from different timeframes. Monthly levels are always marked in red, weekly levels in pink, and lower-timeframe structures in other colours. This allows me to move to a lower timeframe and immediately understand where a particular level originated and how much weight its signal should carry. The underlying principle is straightforward: the higher the timeframe, the stronger the signal. For example, if a four-hour support zone produces a potential buy signal while the price is simultaneously approaching monthly resistance and generating a sell signal, I will generally prioritise the higher-timeframe signal. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/c7VBCJky/ Weekly timeframe The weekly chart continues to show a long-term uptrend, marked in pink. The third point of contact with the lower trend boundary performed exceptionally well in July. The strong upward impulse we observed originated directly from this trend support. This is another example of technical analysis working effectively when it is applied comprehensively and supported by disciplined risk management. The price is currently positioned between several important technical areas. The moving averages around $74,000–76,000 are still providing a degree of support. However, this support appears weaker than the monthly resistance located around $82,000–83,000. Consequently, buying Bitcoin at the current levels has some technical justification, but there is also a meaningful risk of a deeper decline. If I begin building a position at the current price, I need to allocate my capital accordingly and retain sufficient capacity to increase the position at lower levels. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/c7VBCJky/ Daily timeframe The daily chart clearly shows the monthly resistance around $82,000–83,000. Because this level originates from the higher timeframe, it carries greater significance. At the same time, a local uptrend has formed on the daily chart. Its first point was established in July, the second around the middle of August, and a potential third point may form within the $67,000–68,000 area. This zone also coincides with horizontal support around $67,000, providing additional technical confluence. For that reason, the $67,000–68,000 area represents a potentially attractive buying opportunity. A buy-limit order could already be considered within this zone. The stop-loss should be placed below $67,000, with sufficient room for normal price volatility — potentially around $64,000–65,000. Under this scenario, the initial target and minimum upside objective would be a return towards $82,000. 4-hour timeframe I use the four-hour chart to assess the current market structure and identify potential swing-trading opportunities within the week. Following the previous sharp upward impulse, the area around $76,000 repeatedly acted as support. The impulse itself had the characteristics of a short squeeze. As sellers’ stop-loss orders were triggered, the resulting forced buying added further momentum and accelerated the move higher. Compared with traditional financial markets, Bitcoin remains a relatively low-liquidity instrument. At certain moments, insufficient market liquidity can therefore produce especially sharp and volatile price movements. In general, the relationship is inverse: the greater the liquidity, the lower the volatility — and vice versa. Applying a Fibonacci retracement to the initial upward impulse shows that the subsequent pullback almost perfectly reached the 78.6% retracement level, located around $76,000. This support zone then produced three noticeable rebounds. However, the price is now beginning to break through it. To me, this suggests that support around $76,000 is becoming exhausted. The latest local high was also lower than the previous one. Bitcoin initially reached approximately $82,000, while the following rally extended only towards $80,000. The subsequent highs and lows are also beginning to move lower. This structure reduces the probability of an immediate continuation of the previous strong upward move. The fundamental backdrop is not currently providing a sufficient catalyst for further growth either. The CLARITY Act did not pass in the United States, meaning that the market did not receive the positive development it had been anticipating. This provides additional confirmation for my scenario in which Bitcoin retains the potential to move lower. Overall scenario Opening a short position from the current levels is theoretically possible. However, such a trade would be taken against the broader long-term trend and would therefore carry elevated risk. I prefer to look for opportunities in the direction of the prevailing trend. For this reason, my preferred scenario remains a potential Bitcoin purchase within the $67,000–68,000 zone, with a stop-loss below the level — potentially around $64,000–65,000. The first upside target would be the $82,000 area. Any position should nevertheless be structured with appropriate risk management and sufficient capital reserved for gradual accumulation at lower prices.
🔹 TSLA price action shows a broader upward market structure, with higher highs and higher lows developing from the August low. Price has recently consolidated beneath the highlighted resistance zone around 373–377, following a rejection from the 380+ area. The rising trendline continues to support the structure, while the current consolidation suggests a period of balance before the next directional move. The nearby liquidity area around 333–335 remains an important downside reference if selling pressure increases. 🔸 If TSLA breaks and holds above the resistance zone, the price structure could support further bullish continuation, particularly if the breakout is confirmed through sustained price action. Alternatively, rejection from resistance could lead to a deeper pullback toward lower support and the highlighted liquidity area. Traders may wait for clear price confirmation before considering any trade, while a decisive failure of the rising structure could shift attention toward the downside liquidity zone. This technical analysis focuses on price action, market structure, resistance, support, breakout, and liquidity. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions
It's hard to be anything else but Bullish. First off, very great reaction after tapping 1hr, On top of that, More Bullish confirmation after displacing higher and holding the support range. Watching Out For 3 Key Levels: $112 $114 $116.7 The Weekly Gap's 25%, 50%, and 75% mark respectively. Above that, I don't see any major resistance other than $130
https://www.tradingview.com/x/11efmW7S/ Hello,Traders! NZDCHF is rebounding from the horizontal demand area after a sell-side liquidity sweep, with accumulation and imbalance mitigation supporting expansion toward the marked target.Time Frame 12H. Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too!
Market Structure: Supply Zone | Rally-Base-Drop USDCAD is currently being observed near an identified Supply Zone on the 120-minute timeframe. The area originated from a Rally-Base-Drop (RBD) structure, where a relatively strong move away from the base created a visible imbalance between buyers and sellers. Why is this zone technically significant? This is a fresh zone with several characteristics that make it relevant for technical observation: • A clear Rally-Base-Drop structure • A relatively strong leg-out from the base • A compact and defined basing structure • No significant prior revisit of the area • Alignment with observations from multiple timeframes A fresh supply zone is generally studied because the original imbalance has not been substantially tested. When price later returns toward such an area, traders often observe how price behaves around the zone rather than assuming a predetermined outcome. What could happen on a revisit? There are several possible scenarios. Scenario 1 — Rejection If price reaches the supply area and sellers become active, price action could show rejection through bearish candles, failed upward movement, or a shift in short-term structure. Scenario 2 — Acceptance above the zone If price moves through the supply area and begins sustaining above it, the original supply structure could become technically weaker. This may indicate that the imbalance is being absorbed rather than respected. Scenario 3 — Consolidation Price could also spend time around the zone without producing a clear directional reaction. In that situation, the market may simply be establishing new information before the next meaningful move. Confirmation matters The zone itself does not determine what price will do. Price action confirmation, market structure, candle behavior, and higher-timeframe context can provide additional information when evaluating how the market is interacting with the area. The zone can also be invalidated . A sustained move through the area would be an important observation because it could indicate that the original supply imbalance is no longer behaving as expected. Risk Management — Educational Concept From a general trading-education perspective, risk management involves defining in advance how much uncertainty or potential loss a trading plan is designed to tolerate. The appropriate parameters depend on an individual's circumstances, methodology, and risk tolerance. For this chart, the key educational question is not simply whether the supply zone "works", but rather: "How does price behave when it revisits a fresh Rally-Base-Drop supply zone?" That reaction can provide useful information about the interaction between price, structure, and previously identified imbalance. Educational Disclaimer: This publication is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It reflects a technical analysis of market structure and should not be interpreted as investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Always perform your own analysis and manage risk according to your individual circumstances.