HeraldLoop
TI

TradingView Ideas — page 67

2299 articlestradingview.com ↗

Coverage, page 67

page 67 of 115

Gold 4H Advanced SMC Analysis | Key Reversal Zone & Next Move

Gold 4H timeframe analysis based on my Advanced SMC Concept. I’ve marked the key supply/reversal zones and possible market scenarios. If price gives a proper bearish candle close in the marked zone, a sell setup may develop. Otherwise, bullish continuation toward the next higher target remains possible. 📌 Timeframe: 4H 📌 Concept: Advanced SMC 📌 Market: XAUUSD (Gold) ⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

MSTR- Potential Expanded Running Flat

MSTR could be printing an expanded running flat (3-3-5) here to the upside. An 'ABC' down (Nov '24 - Feb '26) potentially marks '1' of a 5-wave move down and currently experiencing correction. 1D Chart On a lower time frame, the wave count makes sense. An ABC up that forms (A) of higher degree followed by a zigzag down that forms (B). And, thereafter a leading diagonal that marks (i) of a 5 wave impulse to the upside. https://www.tradingview.com/x/7ZFLeD9X/ Price is currently in a 0.618 Golden Window; my anticipated retracement for (C) that could potentially mark '2' of higher degree. If an expanded running flat prints here, the structure suggests strong bearish impetus for the overall trend down and potentially marks the origin of wave '3' to the downside (in this case, where the strongest selling pressure occurs). If price action retraces beyond (A), then this invalidates the expanded running flat case creating the likely hood of an expanded flat. Good Luck! -Not Financial Advice-

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

The De-Dollarization Plumbing Nobody is Talking About $DXY

While social media debates whether the dollar crashes overnight or dominates forever, a fundamental structural rewiring is quietly occurring. Sovereign nations are actively refinancing dollar denominated loans directly into Chinese yuan. This is not a sudden crash of the greenback, but a gradual bypass of the Western financial architecture. Who Is Doing This? The blueprint crystallized when Kenya finalized the conversion of its Chinese Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) loans converting roughly $3.5b to $5b from USD to RMB. Kenya shifted from floating Western benchmark rates (SOFR) to China’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR), slicing interest rates nearly in half and saving an estimated $215M to $250M annually. Following Kenya’s execution, Ethiopia entered bilateral agreements with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to restructure debt treatment, set up RMB trade settlements, and integrate its banks into CIPS (China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System). Other debt distressed borrowers holding heavy Chinese bilateral loans including Zambia, Mozambique, and Sri Lanka are exploring or initiating similar bilateral currency swaps and redenomination models. How Does This Actually Affect the U.S.? These nations aren't dumping existing dollar balances. However, they are eliminating future demand for them. The Closed-Loop Financial Rail: When a country owes AMEX:USD , it must clear payments through New York correspondent banks and SWIFT. Redenominating debt into RMB cuts Western rails out entirely. The borrower sells raw commodities directly to China, earns RMB, and uses that RMB to service Chinese infrastructure debt via CIPS. The transaction never touches a U.S. bank or Wall Street clearinghouse. Blunting Sanctions Leverage: The primary enforcement mechanism of U.S. foreign policy has long been the threat of cutting off access to the dollar clearing system. As developing nations establish parallel, non-dollar debt and payment circuits, the coercive leverage of secondary financial sanctions weakens. Erosion of Passive Dollar Demand: Foreign central banks historically held massive foreign exchange cushions in U.S. Treasuries because global debt had to be paid in dollars. Redenominating external sovereign liabilities reduces the structural necessity to hoard dollar reserves over the coming decades. Hard Data to Track (Beyond Central Bank Gold Accumulation) While foreign central banks hoarding physical gold at multi decade records remains a visible sign of reserve diversification, the real operational plumbing shows up in institutional data. SAFE Cross Border RMB Share: Tracks the proportion of China’s own external trade and cross-border payments settled in yuan versus dollars. It has crossed 52%, with H1 cross-border trade settlements in RMB up over 31% year-over-year. A decade ago, this was near zero. U.S. Treasury TIC Data (Official vs. Private Divergence): Recent Treasury International Capital (TIC) releases show a clear structural split. Foreign private investors (hedge funds and asset managers capturing high nominal yields) continue buying, while foreign official accounts (central banks) frequently register net monthly outflows. Foreign states are no longer passively absorbing U.S. deficit issuance at historical rates. CIPS Network Trajectory: Clearing volume on China’s alternative to SWIFT has accelerated past an annualized $25T+ equivalent, connecting nearly 1,800 participating institutions across over 100 countries. Panda Bond Issuance: Foreign sovereign and supranational issuers tapping China's domestic bond market to borrow directly in RMB have pushed cumulative outstanding volume beyond RMB 500 billion, locking in 2 to 3% yields rather than issuing dollar debt. What Could Cause This to Speed Up? Aggressive Secondary Sanctions Overreach The primary accelerator of de-dollarization is the weaponization of the dollar itself. If the U.S. imposes broad secondary sanctions on major non-aligned nations (e.g., sanctioning Indian, Turkish, or Emirati banks for trading with China or Russia), it forces neutral countries to preemptively construct non-dollar settlement rails to protect their own trade flows. "Higher for Longer" U.S. Interest Rates The math behind Kenya and Ethiopia’s debt conversion was straightforward: paying 7.5% on floating USD loans versus 3% on Chinese RMB loans. If stubborn U.S. inflation or surging deficit supply forces U.S. yields back up, dollar debt service becomes unsustainable for emerging markets. Borrowers will actively demand debt conversion into lower-yielding currencies simply to avoid default. Official Pricing of Key Commodities Outside USD The petrodollar is the bedrock of non-discretionary dollar demand. If major energy or commodity exporters (such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Brazil) move from settling bilateral volumes in local currencies to officially invoicing and benchmarking raw materials in yuan or multi currency baskets, global buyers will no longer need to hold massive structural dollar cushions. TGtg!

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

Diamondback Energy Has Been Coiling

Diamondback Energy has consolidated as crude oil rallies, and some traders may see potential for a breakout. The first pattern on today’s chart is the July 2024 high of $214.50. FANG broke the old peak last month before pulling back. Is another push coming? Second, the oil-and-gas driller made higher lows above its rising 50-day simple moving average after testing the old resistance. That could reflect bullish intermediate-term price action. Third, Bollinger Bandwidth has narrowed as the stock forms the tighter range. That volatility squeeze may create potential for prices to expand. Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has mostly stayed above the 21-day EMA since early July. That could be consistent with growing bullishness in the short term. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. Learn more here about TradingView’s Broker of the Year! Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureOptions . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com/Important-Information/ . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureTSCompanies for further important information explaining what this means.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

BTC 4H — cautiously bearish

BTC remains under pressure on the 4H timeframe after rejecting the 78.8K–79.0K area. Price is trading near 76.9K and has not yet reclaimed the short-term moving averages. The local structure still looks weak, with BTC moving back toward the lower part of the range. The key support is around 75,590. As long as BTC continues to close 4H candles above this level, the market still has room for a rebound. However, a confirmed 4H close below 75,590 would increase the risk of a deeper correction. RSI remains in a weak zone, while the MACD histogram is still below zero. This confirms that bullish momentum has not fully returned on the 4H chart. Upside resistance sits around 78,000–79,000. A 4H close back above this area would weaken the bearish scenario. Stronger bullish confirmation would require BTC to reclaim and hold above 81,900. Conclusion: BTC 4H remains neutral-to-bearish. The risk remains tilted toward a retest of 75,590, but the scenario depends on confirmed 4H candle closes, not just intraday wicks. ⚠️ Not financial advice.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

WTI Crude Oil (1D): $106 Breakout & Textbook ABC Impulse

Title: WTI Crude Oil (1D): $106 Breakout & Textbook ABC Impulse Toward $120+ 🛢️🚀 🧠 Fundamental Overview (Geopolitical Spike & Macro Supply Shock): WTI Crude Oil (SPOT) has exploded higher, pushing past the critical $105–$106/bbl threshold to trade at its highest levels since early May. The rally is heavily backed by severe supply disruptions and escalating geopolitical tensions: Geopolitical Escalation & Supply Risk: Following renewed drone strikes in the Middle East that shut down critical infrastructure—including Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline—and intensified maritime friction around the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Strait of Hormuz, the supply risk premium has expanded aggressively. Inflationary Spillover: As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, U.S. crude prices are up over +57% since July 2nd , pushing average retail gasoline prices up to $4.33/gallon . WTI is now sitting roughly 13% away from the peaks reached at the onset of the conflict, directly stoking global stagflation and interest rate worries. https://www.tradingview.com/x/KoN6vuYv/ 📊 Technical Breakdown (1D Timeframe): On the daily chart, price action is unfolding a textbook bullish ABC impulse off the multi-month ascending baseline: 1️⃣ Confirmed ABC Wave Structure & Dynamic Reclaim: After an initial impulse to the $102.45 peak (Wave A), the corrective Wave (B) bottomed within a deep retracement between the 61.8% ($91.97) and 78.6% Fibonacci levels, briefly testing the rising macro Trendline B around $75.22. From that floor, the market triggered an aggressive Wave (C) expansion that cleanly sliced through the 50-day EMA ($88.35) , the 200-day EMA ($82.22) , and descending Trendline A —a dynamic diagonal ceiling that had contained every rally attempt for months. 2️⃣ Volume Expansion: The last two daily sessions have recorded a noticeable volume spike (reaching ~86.97k ticks), proving heavy institutional participation driving this breakout rather than a low-volume liquidity squeeze. 3️⃣ MACD Convergence: The daily MACD exhibits total directional alignment with price action—printing expanding green histogram bars and an aggressive bullish crossover without showing technical overbought exhaustion yet. 4️⃣ Fibonacci Extension Targets: Target A (1.618 Fib Extension / Macro Ceiling): $119.40 – $120.00 USD (Direct confluence of the 1.618 Fib extension and the previous macro highs). Target B (2.000 Fib Extension): $129.88 USD (Full measured impulse expansion). 🎯 Conclusion & Trading Strategy: The technical structure is decisively bullish, pointing straight toward the macro resistance block at $120 USD. However, from an execution standpoint, chasing fresh long positions right here at $106.75 means entering late with unfavorable asymmetry. The optimal entries were either: Aggressive Entry: Directly in the 61.8%–78.6% Fib reversal zone ($75–$78). Conservative Confirmation: On the breakout above both EMAs and Trendline A around $83–$84 USD. At current levels, price is only about 10% away from its major macro target, while the downside exposure on a sharp mean-reversion is wide. A local pause or corrective pullback near the intermediate $109–$110 supply zone to digest gains would be healthy before attempting the final push to $120. If such a pullback occurs, watch closely for fading volume and potential oscillator divergences to gauge whether it is a continuation flag or a deeper reversal. Are you trailing profits toward $120 or looking to short the extension? Let's discuss in the comments! 👇 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is strictly for educational purposes and intended solely to intellectually enrich our trading community. It does NOT constitute financial or investment advice. Always perform your own research and manage your risk strictly.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

BTC/USD Range Sweep into Rebound or Trendline Continuation Drop?

Technical Breakdown Liquidity Sweep: Bitcoin performed a sharp liquidity sweep below the $76,400 low, tapping into the major Buying Zone ($76,000 – $76,600) before bouncing back toward $77,000. Higher-Timeframe Trend: Order flow remains overall bearish under a descending resistance trendline and the primary Selling Zone ($79,200 – $79,600). Current Action: Price is reacting off demand, setting up a corrective rally toward upper supply confluence. Dual Trading Scenarios Scenario A: Rebound to Overhead Supply (Primary Bias)Trigger: Lower-timeframe shift (MSS) holding inside the $76,000 – $76,600 Buying Zone. Execution: Long entry targeting the corrective push toward the trendline and upper supply. Targets: $78,000 $\right arrow$ $79,200 – $79,600 (Selling Zone). Scenario B: Trendline Rejection & Bearish Continuation Trigger: Mitigation of the $79,200 – $79,600 Selling Zone along the descending trendline. Execution: Short entry upon bearish lower-timeframe rejection. Targets: $77,000 $\right arrow$ $75,500.Community Discussion Are you playing the rebound off demand or waiting to short the trendline supply? Comment 🟢 for Long Rebound or 🔴 for Supply Rejection below! 👇 Educational purposes only. Always manage risk strictly.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

AVAX - Weekly Accumulation Outlook

AVAX is in a clear long-term falling wedge. This structure has been building since the 2021 bull market, where price created a low around $10 in summer 2021 and rallied toward $150 by November 2021. Since then, AVAX has seen some decent rallies from the lows, but the structure currently forming could signal a move closer in scale to 2021 than anything price has seen recently. The Structure I have outlined the falling wedge with solid black trendlines. Every test of the upper boundary has been taken over by sellers (red arrows), except for the December 2024 peak, which I have labeled as a false break, since price then reclaimed the upper boundary as resistance with the January 2025 rejection. I have also outlined tests of the lower boundary as support with green arrows. The Weekly RSI Bottom What I find equally fascinating is the weekly RSI. Looking back at the last cycle, it is important to understand how momentum aligned with price to form that cycle's bottom. AVAX formed its most oversold weekly RSI reading in June 2022, right after the Terra Luna collapse, printing a low of 29.47. This was the lowest the RSI would reach that cycle, but price still had slightly lower to go before AVAX formed its true cycle bottom. In November 2022, the infamous FTX collapse occurred, and at the same time, this event was helping to form the actual bottom for the broader crypto markets. I outlined this theory in a past idea you can find here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Y6R9Nd4h-BTC-Could-The-Bottom-Be-In/ What this did for AVAX's chart was help form its structural bottom. The RSI printed a higher low during the FTX collapse at 31.07, while price simultaneously printed a lower low right at the lower boundary of the falling wedge. This created a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, meaning that even though price was making a new low, the underlying selling pressure behind that low was actually weaker than the prior one. That kind of disagreement between price and momentum is one of the more reliable early signals that a downtrend is losing steam, and in this case it marked the exact starting point for AVAX's 650% rally that followed. The Setup Forming Now Something similar is forming in the charts today. Price has once again started holding the lows of the weekly falling wedge (green arrows), and the RSI is beginning to show a very similar reading to last cycle. The RSI created its bottom once again right at oversold territory, printing a weekly reading of 29.34. Since then, both the RSI and price have continued climbing. Now one of two things is likely to happen. Either momentum continues gaining strength and breaks above the solid black trendline, kicking off the bull market directly, or price creates another low or lower low at the trendline while the RSI forms yet another higher low, producing the same type of bullish divergence that kicked off the bull market last cycle. The Targets Either way, once AVAX is able to break out of its current range, it should push back toward the top of the wedge around $20 by January 2027. From there, it will come down to whether it has the strength to break above the upper boundary of the wedge entirely. That is when the kind of explosive gains witnessed in 2021 could occur once again.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

BTCUSDT 5m - Liquidity sweep and rejection at 76900-77125 flip z

Support/resistance flip zone analysis combined with order block identification and liquidity sweep/rejection confirmation. Context: price declined sharply from 78085 to a low of 75696 before basing and staging a strong impulsive rally into 77349, where the last few 5m candles show a sharp pullback. Key levels: the 76900-77125 zone acted as both support and resistance earlier in the session, making it a resistance flip zone; the 75980-76366 area is the demand base that fueled the rally. Scenario: bearish setup on rejection from the 76999-77125 resistance flip zone after price swept liquidity above prior highs near 77349 and reversed; entry near 76999.7, stop above the sweep high at 77360, target the demand zone near 76257. Invalidation: a sustained close back above 77360 would invalidate the short bias, signalling continuation of the bullish impulse instead of a reversal. Analysis timeframe: M5, chart displayed on M15. Educational chart analysis only, not financial advice.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

THE KOG REPORT - Update

End of day update from us here at KOG: Yesterday we wanted price to tap into that lower hot spot and bounce, which it did and gave a decent RIP. It didn't however breach the defence box, instead came back for the bias level. We have however managed to break todays bias level completing 3 targets so far, but with FOMC tomorrow, I don't think it's going to be worth pursuing the last target or the extension of the move. For that reason, we'll say support is still below at the 4265 level which needs to hold for us to continue with this limited move upside due to the pre-event price action we're expecting tomorrow. More ranging and choppy price action ahead, we'll release the FOMC Report tomorrow. Price: 4270 RED BOXES: Break above 4275 for 4283✅, 4295✅ and 4303 in extension of the move Break below 4255 for 4250, 4233 and 4210 in extension of the move As always, trade safe. KOG

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

GBPUSD Bullish Rebound from Support Zone

GBPUSD is showing a potential bullish reversal after testing the **1.3460–1.3470 support zone**. Price has repeatedly rejected this area, suggesting buyers are defending the support. A sustained move higher could push price back toward the marked range resistance and target area. 🎯 **Target: 1.35108** 🛡️ **Support Zone: 1.3460–1.3470** 📈 **Bias: Bullish above support** ⚡ **Confirmation:** A break above the recent range would strengthen the bullish setup.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

Trendline Break + Retest — A Smarter Way to Confirm a Trend Chan

Trendline Break + Retest is a simple but powerful price-action concept that can help traders avoid chasing breakouts and instead wait for confirmation. Many traders see price breaking a trendline and immediately enter a position, but a trendline break alone does not guarantee that the market has completely changed direction. Price can break the trendline, create a false breakout, and quickly move back into the previous trend. This is why understanding the complete sequence — Trendline Break → Retest → Market Structure Confirmation → Entry Planning — is important. First, identify the existing market trend and structure. During a bearish trend, price normally creates Lower Highs and Lower Lows, while during a bullish trend, price creates Higher Highs and Higher Lows. A descending trendline can be drawn across important swing highs during a downtrend, while an ascending trendline can connect important swing lows during an uptrend. The trendline should be based on meaningful price swings rather than random candles. Once the market reaches the trendline, watch how price reacts. If price breaks and closes beyond the trendline with strong momentum, this can be an early indication that the previous trend is losing strength. However, instead of entering immediately after the breakout candle, traders can wait for price to return toward the broken trendline. This is known as the retest. The retest is important because it allows us to see whether the breakout is being accepted by the market. For example, if price breaks above a descending resistance trendline and later returns to the same area, the old resistance may potentially become new support. If buyers defend that area and price begins moving higher again, the setup becomes more interesting. On the other hand, if price falls back below the trendline and continues making lower lows, the breakout may have failed. After the retest, the next important factor is market structure confirmation. Look for a BOS (Break of Structure) or a clear transition from Lower Highs/Lower Lows toward Higher Highs/Higher Lows. A Higher Low after the retest can show that buyers are beginning to defend higher prices, while a new Higher High can provide additional confirmation that bullish momentum is developing. The same concept works in the opposite direction. During an uptrend, price may break below an ascending trendline, return to retest it from underneath, and then reject the level as new resistance. If bearish market structure confirms the move through a Lower High and Lower Low, traders may then evaluate a potential bearish setup. The main idea is not to predict the market before confirmation. Instead, allow price to show its intentions. A trendline break tells you that something may be changing. The retest shows how price reacts to the broken level. Market structure confirmation provides additional evidence. Only then should you consider a potential Entry, Stop-Loss and Take-Profit according to your trading plan. For risk management, the stop-loss should be placed at a logical invalidation point where the setup would no longer make sense. Targets can be planned around previous swing highs or lows, major support and resistance, liquidity areas, or predefined risk-to-reward levels. Never increase risk simply because the breakout looks strong. One of the biggest mistakes traders make is chasing the breakout. When price moves quickly, emotions can create FOMO, causing traders to enter at poor locations. Waiting for a retest can provide a more structured opportunity and a clearer point where the trade idea can be considered invalid. However, remember that not every breakout will retest. Sometimes price will continue immediately without giving another entry opportunity. That is completely fine. A trader does not need to catch every movement in the market. The goal is to follow a clear process rather than force a trade. 🔥 THE COMPLETE PROCESS 1️⃣ Identify the Trend Understand whether the market is bullish, bearish, or ranging. 2️⃣ Draw the Trendline Connect meaningful swing points and avoid forcing the line. 3️⃣ Wait for the Break Look for a convincing break and preferably a candle close beyond the trendline. 4️⃣ Wait for the Retest Allow price to return toward the broken trendline instead of chasing the initial move. 5️⃣ Watch the Reaction Look for rejection, acceptance, or a clear change in momentum. 6️⃣ Confirm Market Structure Look for BOS, Higher High/Higher Low for bullish confirmation or Lower High/Lower Low for bearish confirmation. 7️⃣ Build the Trade Plan Define your Entry, SL, TP1, TP2 and TP3 before taking unnecessary risk. 🧠 KEY LESSON TRENDLINE BREAK = WARNING RETEST = REACTION BOS = CONFIRMATION ENTRY = TRADE PLAN The market does not owe us an immediate entry. Sometimes the best trade is the one we wait for. The strongest habit to develop is patience. Rather than buying the first breakout candle or selling the first breakdown candle, wait for price to return, observe the reaction, confirm the structure, and then decide whether the setup actually fits your plan. 📌 Remember: BREAK → RETEST → CONFIRM → PLAN → EXECUTE This approach does not guarantee winning trades, but it gives traders a clearer and more structured way to analyze potential trend changes while keeping risk management at the center of the decision.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept