USOIL (D) — back above $100 inside the monthly supply zone
TVC:USOIL
https://www.tradingview.com/x/IQIQWtTT/
WTI crude trades at $103.51 and moves above one hundred for the first time since May, after Thursday's candle opened at $96.88, printed $104.04 and closed at $103.94, a 7.5% advance in a single session. Friday gave part of it back down to $99.98, Monday closed at $101.88 after touching $104.95, and today's session opens at $102.01 and works in the upper part of the range. What matters is where the move comes from. From the August 26 low at $79.62 price has climbed 31.8% to this week's high in under three weeks, and from the July floor at $67.04 the rebound adds up to 54.4%. The moving average stack is ordered upward and wide open, with the EMA 5 ($100.61) and the EMA 9 ($97.66) right below price, the EMA 20 ($92.43) sitting at the breakout area of early September and the EMA 50 ($87.47), the EMA 100 ($85.31) and the EMA 200 ($81.29) far behind. The daily MACD works upward with its main line (5.14) above its signal (3.59) and a histogram at 1.55 that keeps growing. The TRIX keeps its bullish bias, although its strength is starting to fade. The stochastics sit at the very top, with the Stoch 89 (91), the Stoch 50 (92), the Stoch 14 (88) and the Stoch 5 (79), and the Stoch 14 has just crossed below the 89 line in Monday's session. The RSI 14 (71.50) already trades in overbought and the RSI 2 (79) confirms the short term read. Daily structure is bullish, with its last change of character to the upside alive and two active demand zones below. The range reading explains the tension on the chart, because price has exited above the previous range between $79.62 and $93.50 and no longer trades inside it. No volume read is possible, because the reference contract does not publish it.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/a6kLYSOa/
Monthly Analysis. The larger timeframe tells the full story of this year and it is where the ceiling that needs respect sits. March opened with a gap at $75, printed the yearly high at $119.48 and closed at $101.55, 51% above the February close, and from there crude spent five months digesting the impulse down to the July low at $67.04. September opens at $86.31 and is already up 19.9%, which puts price back inside the monthly supply block between $101.61 and $107.65, the area where the market turned down in May. The EMA 5 ($90.57), the EMA 9 ($85.62) and the EMA 20 ($79.14) sit below in ascending order, with the EMA 50 ($75.23), the EMA 100 ($72.16) and the EMA 200 ($67.87) acting as the cycle floor. The monthly MACD works upward with its main line (5.20) above its signal (1.90) and a histogram at 3.30, and the TRIX keeps its bullish bias with expanding strength. All four stochastics point upward from the middle zone, with the Stoch 89 (71), the Stoch 50 (57), the Stoch 14 (58) and the Stoch 5 (55), and the RSI 14 (61.90) is not saturated. Monthly structure is bullish with its last change of character to the upside alive, and price trades above the ceiling of its previous range between $63.61 and $94.99. The monthly demand zone holding this entire leg sits between $68.63 and $78.77.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/AZhGilGi/
Weekly Analysis. The intermediate timeframe is the one carrying the most strength right now. Last week opened at $92.26, printed $104.46 and closed at $99.98, up 9.6%, and the current one opens at $102.25 and has already touched $104.95. Price trades above the entire stack, with the EMA 5 ($94.93) and the EMA 9 ($90.85) as the first cushion and the EMA 20 ($86.99), the EMA 50 ($80.84), the EMA 100 ($76.83) and the EMA 200 ($74.79) staggered below. The weekly MACD has its main line (3.77) above its signal (2.19) with a histogram at 1.59, and the TRIX is crossed up and expanding, which is the cleanest read of the three frames. All four stochastics point upward, with the Stoch 89 (67), the Stoch 50 (67), the Stoch 14 (88) and the Stoch 5 (89), after the Stoch 14 crossed above the 89 and the 50 lines in the week of August 24. The RSI 14 (61.75) has room and the RSI 2 (94.67) is exhausted in the short term. Weekly structure keeps its change of character to the upside and leaves two active demand zones, the most recent one between $90.09 and $100.50, where the break of one hundred was born. The range reading places price at 69.5% of the run between $67.04 and $119.48, in the expensive half but still far from the ceiling.
Crude rises because every week there are more barrels that cannot reach the market and fewer safe routes to move the ones that do. The trigger for Thursday's candle was the precautionary shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline after a wave of drone attacks, an infrastructure with a capacity of around seven million barrels per day that serves to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, while the threat spreads toward the Red Sea. OPEC put shut-in production at 6.7 million barrels per day in August, global inventories have been draining for months, and the talks between Iran and the Gulf states to open a temporary shipping corridor through Hormuz have been postponed without a date. The risk sits on the other side of the scale, because the International Energy Agency expects global demand to fall this year, the U.S. EIA places Brent around $90 for the second half and at $77 for the second quarter of 2027 once Gulf production restarts, and the Federal Reserve meets tomorrow with a rate hike almost fully priced. A deal on Hormuz or a pipeline restart would strip the risk premium at once.
Key levels:
- Resistance 1: $104.95 (high of the week)
- Resistance 2: $107.65 (top of the monthly supply)
- Resistance 3: $110.30 and $113.97 (weekly supply block and April high)
- Yearly high: $119.48 (March)
- Dynamic support: $100.61 and $97.66 (daily EMAs 5 and 9)
- Support 1: $96.50 (base of the breakout demand)
- Support 2: $92.43 and $90.09 (daily EMA 20 and weekly demand base)
- Structural support: $88.72-$87.47 (demand zone and daily EMA 50)
Setup Rating — 3/5 ⭐⭐⭐⭒⭒ (Bullish trend on the three frames and expanding weekly momentum, against an overbought daily, a price sitting inside the monthly supply and a geopolitical premium that can vanish with one headline)
✅ Positive factors:
- Price above the entire moving average stack on the daily, the weekly and the monthly
- MACD rising on the three frames, with the monthly at 5.20 above 1.90
- Weekly and monthly TRIX crossed up and with expanding strength
- Bullish structure with the change of character alive on all three scales
- Fresh demand zone between $96.50 and $103.31 left by the breakout candle
- More than six million barrels per day off the market and inventories draining
⚠️ Cautions:
- Daily RSI 14 at 71.50, in overbought, with the Stoch 14 crossed down on Monday
- Price inside the monthly supply block from $101.61 to $107.65, where it turned down in May
- A 31.8% rise in under three weeks with barely any pullback, and the daily EMAs wide open
- Fed tomorrow, the Hormuz corridor under negotiation and a Saudi pipeline that can reopen at any time
👍 As long as daily closes respect the $100.61 to $96.50 area, where the EMA 5 and the base of the demand left by Thursday's candle meet, the impulse stays alive and the normal path is for price to spend several sessions digesting between $96.50 and $107.65 before deciding. A weekly close above $107.65 would take price out of the monthly supply and open the way toward $110.30, the April high at $113.97 and finally the yearly ceiling at $119.48. Having the daily unwind its stochastics sideways without losing the fast averages would be the best possible news for the next leg.
👎 Losing $96.50 on a daily close would leave the break of one hundred as a failure inside the monthly supply and put the focus on the EMA 20 ($92.43) and on the weekly demand base at $90.09. That leg would still be a healthy correction, because it would return price to the inside of the previous range without touching the weekly structure. Only below $88.72 and the daily EMA 50 ($87.47) would the thesis need a review, and the level that would fully invalidate it is the monthly demand zone between $78.77 and $68.63.
What else are you watching alongside crude this week: the dollar, energy stocks, gold? 👇
TITradingView Ideas15 Sept
