Bitcoin (BTC) faced two blows in 48 hours: a Fed rate hike and a failed Senate vote. Its price held. A key level did not. Glassnode had set the week’s test in advance. A second daily close below the True Market Mean would turn a slip into a break. Wednesday delivered it. The News Landed
BeInCrypto•Kamina Bashir17 Sept
USNAS100 is showing bullish momentum today, supported not only by the technical structure but also by an improvement in the short-term fundamental backdrop. Following yesterday’s Fed rate hike, Nasdaq futures are rebounding strongly as long-term Treasury yields ease and oil prices continue to retreat. Nasdaq 100 futures were up roughly 1% in early U.S. trading, outperforming the other major indices. Lower long-term yields are particularly supportive for technology and growth stocks because they reduce some of the valuation pressure created by higher borrowing costs. Technically The price is currently consolidating inside the 29280–29465 range, while momentum remains bullish as long as the market holds above the 29280 pivot. The first upside target remains 29465. A confirmed 1H candle close above 29465 would strengthen the bullish structure and support an extension toward 29680. On the downside, the bullish setup would begin to weaken if the market loses 29280. A confirmed 4H candle close below 29280 would shift momentum bearish and open the way toward 29040, followed by 28850 if selling pressure continues. Fundamental Structure The immediate environment is currently supportive for Nasdaq: oil is falling, the 10-year Treasury yield is easing, and technology shares are leading today’s recovery. However, the broader macro risk has not disappeared. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps yesterday to 3.75%–4.00%, and policymakers indicated that further tightening could be necessary. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 51% probability of another hike in October, up from around 44% before the decision. Pivot Line: 29280 Resistance: 29465 – 29680 Support: 29040 – 28850
The Fed raised rates a quarter point on Wednesday, to 3.75% to 4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. The dollar index went back through 100 on it. The part that matters for anyone buying pullbacks is the projections. In June the Fed's median had rates coming down to 3.6% by the end of 2027. In September it's 4.1% and staying there, with 16 of 18 officials pencilling in another hike this year. So every inflation and jobs release between now and the October meeting carries more weight than it did a month ago. That changes the order you should do things in. https://www.tradingview.com/x/YPAgEPAV/ Most people buy a pullback like this. Price comes back towards a moving average in a trend, it looks cheap, they get in, and then they go looking for somewhere to put the stop. Every pullback looks cheap while it's happening. You can't tell a pullback from the start of a reversal until price gets somewhere it shouldn't. So find that somewhere first. Pick the side off the trend. On the daily, if the 8 EMA is above the 21 you're only looking at buys. That's the whole first question and it takes two seconds. Mark the invalidation off the ATR. Take the weekly ATR, the distance the market normally travels in a week, and measure down from where you'd enter. That block is where the idea is wrong. If price gets in there the pullback has turned into something else. The stop goes there, and your size comes from the distance to it rather than from how much you like the chart. Check how much of the week is already spent. If the week has already travelled most of its ATR, there's less room left for a fresh target, and a good-looking entry with nowhere to go is still a poor trade. Then look at the target off the same ATR. Now the reward-to-risk is sitting on the chart before you've done anything. There's one more thing the ATR gives you if you draw the daily and the weekly sets together. You can split one entry into two pieces. One takes the nearer daily target. The other is held for the weekly level, and when the daily target pays, its stop goes to entry. If the week has already used up its normal range by then, that's a good sign the daily piece has had most of what the week was going to give. The first piece pays for the trade, and once it has, the second one is running for free. One honest thing about all of this. Buying a pullback in a trend isn't an edge on its own. Replay the simple version back through the daily bars on the pairs I've run it on, same stop, same target, and it comes out close to flat. What the order above does is make sure you know where you're wrong and whether the week's got room before you commit, which matters a lot more in a month where any single release could move a rate expectation. Where is the invalidation on the last pullback you bought, and did you mark it before or after you got in? Educational content. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin trades near $76,588 after the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate and the Fed hiked rates. Key levels, scenarios, and an early-stage BTC L2 play.
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $75,064.82 on Sept. 16, but recovered and reclaimed the $76,000 zone after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference wrapped up. The S&P 500 fell roughly 0.7%, the Dow dropped 1.2%, and the 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.734% in the same window, while Bitcoin held its ground. Warsh's […]
CryptoSlate•Gino Matos17 Sept
Key takeaways Ethereum gained 1.7% and reclaimed the important $2,431 level. US spot Ethereum ETFs lost $365.5 million across Tuesday and Wednesday. A break above $2,544 could target $2,626, while major support sits near $2,269–$2,282. Ethereum (ETH) gained 1.7% over 24 hours and reclaimed $2,431 despite the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase in three years […]
CoinJournal•Hassan Maishera17 Sept
The investment bank found that stocks in the energy and information technology sectors on average perform the best one year after an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Claude AI Predicts Bitcoin's 2026 roadmap after the Fed's first rate hike in three years, as BTC holds near $76,500.
Coinspeaker•Daniel Francis17 Sept
The US central bank raised its benchmark rate by .25 percent, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh defying President Donald Trump's desire for lower rates. Consumer banks and bond markets react. Also, OpenAI reveals new incidents of AI misconduct as fears grow that the technology could escape human control.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has remained mostly stable following the Fed's 0.25 bps rate hike yesterday, despite an initial sell-off on the stock markets. This shows incredible resilience and as we approach the designated end of the Bear Cycle (October 2026) based on the 4-year Cycle Model, the market has now sustained the pressure of two major economic events (counting also Tuesday's Clarity Act failure). So the picture becomes clearer. According to the past three Bear Cycles since 2014, BTC is on almost an identical 1W RSI pattern of Higher Lows. Only a touch on that trend-line can deliver a price near $60k again, similar to what happened in August 2015 or a 0.5 Fib pull-back as in March 2023. As mentioned numerous times, a weekly closing above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), confirms the new Bull Cycle immediately. The 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is the technical market Support at the moment and any potential test is a buy opportunity. Especially as Bitcoin enters the 6 week period before the U.S. mid-term elections, which is expected to inflict strong volatility into the markets. Another striking similarity on this chart is that, after every bottom, the early stages of the Bull Cycles that followed have been inside a Channel Up. In 2020/21 and 2017, those led to parabolic rallies when they broke. In 2024/25 it was much calmer and controlled, almost an extension of the Channel Up itself. So use that to your advantage and once the 1W MA50 breaks, every minor correction towards it, would be a Bull Cycle buy opportunity. So is there enough time for one last pull-back or the 1W MA50 will break first? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
The Fed raises interest rates for the first time in three years, protests over rising gas prices are being held around the world, Canada's prime minister speaks to European Parliament.
NPR•Michel Martin17 Sept
CoinDesk•James Van Straten17 Sept
Bitcoin's reaction may depend less on this rate hike and more on whether the Fed continues tightening monetary policy.
FOMC is over. Now the real liquidity test begins. Gold remains trapped inside a broader H4 bearish structure after rejecting from the 4,680 area and continuing to print lower highs beneath the descending trendline. But after the post-FOMC volatility, price is now reacting directly above a major H4 demand zone. 📊 H4 Market Structure Current: 4,283.100 Trendline Resistance: 4,340–4,360 H4 Demand / SSL: 4,235–4,250 Lower H4 Demand: 4,095–4,120 The structure remains bearish below the descending trendline. But selling directly into 4,235–4,250 offers poor structural confirmation. 🔴 Bearish Scenario If H4 closes below 4,235–4,250 with displacement: 4,250 → 4,200 → 4,120–4,095 That would confirm continuation of the broader bearish structure. 🟢 Reversal Scenario If Gold sweeps 4,235–4,250 and quickly reclaims 4,300 with a lower-timeframe MSS: 4,250 → 4,300 → 4,340–4,360 A sustained H4 reclaim above the descending trendline would weaken the current bearish structure. 🌍 Post-FOMC Context The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, while its projections kept further tightening risk on the table. Gold initially sold off toward the 4,240 area, then recovered as markets digested the decision and oil's rally lost momentum. The next move may depend less on the headline rate decision and more on which liquidity pool gets taken first. Does 4,250 become the post-FOMC floor — or the next breakdown trigger?
XAUUSD did fall after FED announced could have another rate by end of 2026. But price seem stabilized above two confluence trendlines.. possible in ranging moves before Mid Oct inflation reports.
XAUUSD is reacting from the 4,250–4,310 buy zone, but price is still trapped below the long descending trendline and beneath the Ichimoku structure. This keeps the broader pressure bearish, while the current setup remains a conditional recovery trade. If buyers continue to defend the zone and Gold breaks and holds above the descending trendline, I’m watching: 🎯 Target: 4,500 Macro Market: The Fed has now raised rates and signaled that further tightening remains possible. The decision pushed the US Dollar and Treasury yields higher, creating a clear headwind for non-yielding Gold. This means any bullish recovery still needs strong technical confirmation rather than simply buying support. A sustained H2 move below 4,250 would weaken the recovery setup. AURICVERSE View: the buy zone is holding, but buyers still have one major job — break the descending trendline. If they do, 4,500 comes back into focus.
Yesterday, as you know, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, but more importantly, Chair Warsh sounded very hawkish during the press conference. He said that inflation has been well above the 2% target for too long and that the Fed needs to bring it back towards that target. Some policymakers even voted for a 50-basis-point hike. So with the Fed delivering only 25 basis points this time, more hikes are still possible in the months ahead. That's why we saw such a strong move higher in US yields and the US dollar. Looking at US Treasuries, we are now seeing some stabilization after bonds and stocks recovered during the Asian session following Trump's comments that US interest rates should be lower. However, looking at the 10-year Treasury wave count, this still looks like only a wave four recovery, with important resistance around 106.57. So more weakness in bonds could follow, which would mean another move higher in yields and could keep the dollar supported. GH
Gold is showing a strong rebound after the sharp sell-off, with price recovering from the 4,240 –4,260 liquidity/support area and moving back above 4,300. Tecnically latest upside reaction is partly connected to the market digesting the Fed's September rate decision. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, while the initial post-Fed selling pushed gold to a near six-week low. On September 17, gold rebounded more than 1% as investors reassessed the decision and the earlier oil rally lost momentum. At the same time, the USD remains firm and Treasury yields are elevated, which is limiting the upside and explains why gold is still reacting sharply around resistance. Geopolitical uncertainty is also contributing to two-way volatility. Key Levels to watch ; Support zone ; 4,300–$4,320 Resistance zone ; 4,350 / 4,380 Holding above 4300 keeps the bullish As long Price continues holding above 4,300 and confirms strength through the resistance zone, the next levels to watch are 4,350 / 4,380 for now, the chart remains a battle between bullish recovery and macro-driven selling pressure. Confirmation around the key levels will be important before assuming the next major direction. Hope you found this analysis helpful. 👍 Like, Comment & Follow for more updates.
European stock markets opened in positive territory on Thursday morning, shrugging off Wall Street's decline after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years and signalled that further hikes are likely.
Euronews17 Sept
📊 Technical Analysis ● NZDUSD remains inside a clear descending structure, with the major resistance line continuing to cap recovery attempts. Price is also trading below the broken support line, which is now acting as additional resistance and keeps the broader 1H structure bearish. ● The current rebound could extend toward the 0.5752–0.5764 resistance zone. If sellers defend this area, another decline toward the 0.5690–0.5700 target zone becomes the main scenario. A sustained breakout above resistance would weaken the bearish setup. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● The U.S. dollar remains supported after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% and signaled that further tightening may be needed as inflation remains elevated. Strong August U.S. retail sales also reinforced the picture of a resilient U.S. economy, adding support to the dollar. ● New Zealand’s latest GDP data came in slightly stronger than expected, with the economy expanding 0.2% in Q2 and 2.6% year over year. That provides some support to the NZD, but the kiwi remains under pressure against the stronger U.S. dollar following the Fed’s hawkish rate move. ✨ Summary ● Bearish continuation remains the main scenario while NZDUSD stays below 0.5752–0.5764; target 0.5690–0.5700. A confirmed breakout above resistance would invalidate the immediate bearish setup. Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!