JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says it's not clear inflation has been slayed after the Fed's latest rate hike, citing persistent pressures and capital demand.
The Daily Hodl•Daily Hodl Agent17 Sept
Gold has staged a strong recovery after reaching the 4234 support area, with buyers stepping back into the market as the fundamental environment turns more supportive in the short term. The recovery is being helped by a softer U.S. dollar, easing oil prices and lower Treasury yields following Wednesday’s Fed rate hike. However, the Fed has kept the door open to additional tightening, meaning the broader environment remains sensitive to any renewed rise in yields and the dollar. Technically Gold reached our 4234 support and reversed strongly from that area, confirming it as an important demand zone. The price is now trading with bullish momentum, with 4330 acting as the key pivot and confirmation level. A confirmed 1H candle close above 4330 would strengthen the bullish structure and support continuation toward 4363. A breakout and stability above 4363 would open the way toward the next resistance at 4390. On the downside, failure to establish stability above 4330 could keep gold consolidating between 4330 and 4296 until a confirmed breakout determines the next move. A break below 4296 would weaken the current bullish recovery and bring the lower support area back into focus. Fundamental Structure The short-term fundamental environment currently aligns with the technical recovery: Dollar (Down) + Oil (Down) + Treasury yields (Down) → Supportive for Gold But the Fed’s message remains the main medium-term risk. Additional rate hikes or another strong rebound in Treasury yields could strengthen the dollar and put renewed pressure on non-yielding gold. Therefore, 4330 is technically important while yields and the dollar remain important fundamentally. If both continue to favor gold, the recovery has room to extend. Pivot Line: 4330 Resistance: 4363 – 4390 Support: 4296 – 4276
The Fed just delivered a 25bp rate hike to 3.75%–4.00%, with policymakers still pointing to another hike this year. The message was clearly more hawkish than the market had hoped. Yet NASDAQ:NVDA did not break its larger structure. The stock remains trapped in a wide $190–230 range , with the $212–215 zone acting as the key battleground between buyers and sellers. The Setup $230: Range resistance $190: Range support $212–215: Key strength/weakness zone The FOMC created volatility, but so far it has not resolved this range. Above $215 : momentum could shift toward the upper half of the range, with $220 → $230 in focus. Below $212 : downside pressure could return, targeting $205 → $190. Between $212–215, I would rather wait for confirmation than trade the noise. The Fed has changed the macro backdrop, but NVDA still needs to break its technical structure. $215 breaks → bullish setup. $212 breaks → bearish setup. For now, 212–215 is the battlefield.
Fundamental Analysis Gold is recovering after the Fed-driven selloff as the U.S. dollar retreats from a seven-week high and oil prices ease, giving XAUUSD room to rebound. The Fed raised rates 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% and maintained a hawkish stance, with most policymakers still expecting at least one additional hike this year. The macro backdrop therefore remains mixed: tighter Fed expectations continue to limit upside, but softer energy prices and a weaker dollar are supporting the current recovery. Technical Analysis On H1, XAUUSD is trading near 4,326 after the post-Fed liquidation reached 4,235 and triggered a strong recovery. Price has already reclaimed the 4,300 psychological area and reached 4,335, confirming improving short-term momentum. However, the broader structure is still capped by the descending resistance trendline. The preferred retracement area is 4,297–4,314, where Fibonacci 0.618–0.786 and the marked H1 buy zone converge. If buyers defend this area, price could first retest 4,335, then extend toward the descending trendline around 4,350–4,360. The deeper 4,258–4,273 support zone remains an important structural defense if the first buy area fails. Important Key Levels 4,350–4,360 — Trendline resistance / main target 4,335 — Immediate resistance 4,297–4,314 — Main buy zone 4,286–4,297 — Short-term pivot 4,258–4,273 — Major support 4,235 — Post-Fed low Trading Scenario Main Buy Setup Entry: 4,297–4,314 Stop Loss: 4,280 Take Profit 1: 4,335 Take Profit 2: 4,350 Take Profit 3: 4,355–4,360 Buy Condition Wait for a controlled pullback into 4,297–4,314 and bullish confirmation. A liquidity sweep, long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, or H1 reclaim above 4,314 would strengthen the continuation setup. A sustained H1 break below 4,280 would invalidate the immediate buy idea and shift attention toward the deeper support zone. Overall View The short-term H1 structure is shifting into bullish recovery after the Fed liquidity sweep, but the broader descending trendline has not yet been broken. The preferred plan is therefore to avoid chasing around 4,325–4,335 and wait for a retracement into 4,297–4,314. If buyers defend this Fibonacci zone, XAUUSD could retest 4,335 before challenging 4,350–4,360. Will gold hold 4,297–4,314 and retest the H1 resistance trendline?
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in years. And, the European Union has proposed that Canada become its first-ever "associate member."
NPR•Brittney Melton17 Sept
"The problem they have is that we have the greatest economy in history ... so they're raising that only for political reasons, and that's a raise against Trump."
EUR/USD did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: −− With Fed credibility on the line, Warsh just delivered a hawkish answer −− A stronger dollar and rising yields: How the Fed’s rate hike could hit global markets −− Analysis-Fed builds credibility, but hawkish turn leaves investors edgy 74 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: −−− leaning bearish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)
USD/CHF did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: ++ Swiss Franc remains near 16-month lows against US Dollar ++ Analysis-Fed builds credibility, but hawkish turn leaves investors edgy ++ With Fed credibility on the line, Warsh just delivered a hawkish answer 76 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)
📊 Market Overview: XAU/USD is currently trading around 4,310–4,320 USD, after rebounding strongly from a low near 4,235 USD in the previous session. On September 17, gold reached around 4,318 USD, while Reuters reported that gold gained more than 1%, supported by a weaker USD and easing oil prices. After the Fed raised interest rates and signaled that further tightening could remain possible, gold continues to face pressure from U.S. yields and expectations for higher interest rates. However, the USD's pullback from a 7-week high, along with lower oil prices, is supporting gold's short-term recovery. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance: 4,315–4,325 / 4,345–4,360 USD • Nearest Support: 4,285–4,295 / 4,255–4,270 USD • EMA: Price is attempting to reclaim the EMA 09 after the strong rebound from 4,235. However, the short-term structure has not fully turned bullish yet, as the medium-term moving averages remain above price. A TradingView-based analysis also identifies 4,316 as an important confirmation level; a clear break above this area could open the way toward 4,347. • Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: The sharp decline toward 4,235–4,260 created a long lower wick, followed by strong dip-buying that pushed gold back above 4,300. RSI is currently around the neutral 48–50 zone, indicating that selling pressure has eased, but buyers have not yet gained full control. 📌 Outlook: Gold could continue its short-term recovery if it holds above 4,285–4,295 and decisively breaks above 4,315–4,325. In that case, the next target could be 4,345–4,360. Conversely, if gold is rejected below 4,315–4,325 and breaks below 4,285, selling pressure could return toward 4,255–4,270. The broader structure still requires caution as the Fed maintains a relatively hawkish stance. 💡 Proposed Trading Strategy: 🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: 4,320–4,325 🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips ❌ SL: 4,328 🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 4,285–4,295 🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips ❌ SL: 4,278
Gold (XAU/USD) did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: −− Analysis-Fed builds credibility, but hawkish turn leaves investors edgy −− With Fed credibility on the line, Warsh just delivered a hawkish answer − Goldman Sachs sees October Fed hike after hawkish signal (fading) 63 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: −−− leaning bearish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)
Silver (XAG/USD) did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: −− Hawkish Fed lifts dollar to seven-week high; markets brace for BOE, BOJ − Japanese Yen outperforms as BoJ’s policy takes centre stage − Analysis-Fed builds credibility, but hawkish turn leaves investors edgy (fading) 64 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: −−− leaning bearish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)
USD/CAD did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: ++ Gold at $4,357 faces resistance wall in bearish regime: Live levels ++ Treasury yields move lower after Fed kicks off hiking cycle + Hawkish Fed lifts dollar to seven-week high; markets brace for BOE, BOJ 81 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)
CoinDesk•Oliver Knight17 Sept
The central bank kept its reserve-plumbing authority, but the current schedule shows no net reserve-management purchases.
CryptoSlate•Liam 'Akiba' Wright17 Sept
A substitute text adopted before the vote strips out the Federal Reserve funding routes and thins the transparency rules.
XAUUSD — 4,309 Break Opens 4,225 Gold is showing another weak recovery attempt, and this chart feels like sellers are still controlling the story. After the sharp drop from the previous high, price moved inside a bearish structure with repeated lower reactions. Each bounce looked strong for a short moment, but none of them was able to hold cleanly above the previous supply area. That is usually a warning sign. When gold keeps reacting up but fails to build real continuation, the market is often preparing to take liquidity lower. Right now, price is trading around 4,309 after another rejection from the upper 4,300 zone. The key point here is simple: buyers tried to recover, but the reaction lost momentum before breaking back into a bullish structure. With USD strength supported by the hawkish Fed tone, and gold closing below the important 50-day SMA area, the short-term pressure still leans bearish. From an SMC view, the current move looks like a lower-high formation after a broken recovery channel. The market has already shown CHoCH signals, but they are not strong enough to confirm a full bullish reversal. Instead, price is now turning down again toward the next liquidity pocket. My main view is bearish while gold stays below 4,325 - 4,350. If sellers keep pressure under this zone, the next downside target is 4,241 - 4,225. This is the area marked on the chart, and it may become the next reaction zone if price sweeps into discount. For buyers to regain control, gold needs more than a small bounce. It needs a clean reclaim above 4,350, then a stronger hold above 4,375. Without that, every recovery still looks like a pullback for sellers to reload. Key Price Zones to Watch Current price area: 4,300 - 4,310 Short-term resistance: 4,325 - 4,350 Bullish recovery level: above 4,350 - 4,375 Main bearish pressure zone: below 4,325 First downside target: 4,260 - 4,250 Main target zone: 4,241 - 4,225 Invalidation for bearish view: clean reclaim and hold above 4,375 Do you think gold will sweep 4,225 first, or will buyers defend this area before the next big move?
Bitcoin (BTC) faced two blows in 48 hours: a Fed rate hike and a failed Senate vote. Its price held. A key level did not. Glassnode had set the week’s test in advance. A second daily close below the True Market Mean would turn a slip into a break. Wednesday delivered it. The News Landed
BeInCrypto•Kamina Bashir17 SeptUSNAS100 is showing bullish momentum today, supported not only by the technical structure but also by an improvement in the short-term fundamental backdrop. Following yesterday’s Fed rate hike, Nasdaq futures are rebounding strongly as long-term Treasury yields ease and oil prices continue to retreat. Nasdaq 100 futures were up roughly 1% in early U.S. trading, outperforming the other major indices. Lower long-term yields are particularly supportive for technology and growth stocks because they reduce some of the valuation pressure created by higher borrowing costs. Technically The price is currently consolidating inside the 29280–29465 range, while momentum remains bullish as long as the market holds above the 29280 pivot. The first upside target remains 29465. A confirmed 1H candle close above 29465 would strengthen the bullish structure and support an extension toward 29680. On the downside, the bullish setup would begin to weaken if the market loses 29280. A confirmed 4H candle close below 29280 would shift momentum bearish and open the way toward 29040, followed by 28850 if selling pressure continues. Fundamental Structure The immediate environment is currently supportive for Nasdaq: oil is falling, the 10-year Treasury yield is easing, and technology shares are leading today’s recovery. However, the broader macro risk has not disappeared. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps yesterday to 3.75%–4.00%, and policymakers indicated that further tightening could be necessary. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 51% probability of another hike in October, up from around 44% before the decision. Pivot Line: 29280 Resistance: 29465 – 29680 Support: 29040 – 28850