Federal Reserve — page 12

Trump fails to bend the Fed to his will

Kevin Warsh leads the US central bank to its first rate rise since 2023 less than four months into the job

Financial Times17 Sept

• critical toward Donald Trump · 98%

GOLD: Gold H1 Analysis – September 17

📰 Gold News & Market Developments Following the Fed's decision, the USD and US bond yields remain elevated, exerting pressure on Gold. XAUUSD experienced a sharp decline and is currently recovering from the 4,260 level. On the H1 timeframe, the current recovery is insufficient to confirm a reversal. Prices remain below key EMA lines. => Short-term fundamentals: Bearish bias for Gold. 📊 Analysis The H1 structure still shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows, with the EMA alignment EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100 < EMA200 → the downtrend remains dominant. The rise from 4,260 to above 4,280 may simply be a technical rebound. Therefore, rather than selling at the current price, it is advisable to wait for Gold to rally toward a resistance zone for a better entry position. If the price breaks strongly above 4,325 and holds there, exercise caution with Sell orders and watch for a potential move toward the 4,350–4,365 zone. 🎯 Trading Strategy 🔴 Sell Zone 4,315–4,325 : The EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 converge here. If the price rallies but faces rejection, sellers may step back in. 🔴 Sell Zone 4,357–4,370 : EMA200 + downtrend line + supply zone → a strong resistance area. 🟢 Buy Zone 4,255–4,265 : Key support zone. Only consider buying if a clear reversal signal appears. => Key strategy: Patiently wait for Gold to rebound to the resistance zone to look for selling opportunities, rather than chasing the trade at the current price.

CHFTHB Eyes Safe-Haven Demand

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, CHFTHB closed at 40.63 in the Thai market. There were no high-impact Swiss economic releases, suggesting that the CHF was mainly driven by global market factors and major currency movements. Meanwhile, the Fed raised interest rates, strengthening the USD and putting pressure on CHFTHB. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today | Forecast | Previous CH: 13:00 Trade Balance | - | 8.730B CH: 14:00 SECO Economic Forecast Today's key Swiss economic releases include the Trade Balance, with the previous reading at 8.730B, and the SECO Economic Forecast, which will provide insight into the outlook for the Swiss economy and could influence expectations for monetary policy going forward. However, CHF movements remain highly dependent on global Risk Sentiment. A Risk-Off environment could increase demand for safe-haven assets and support the CHF, while Risk-On conditions could reduce demand for the CHF. Overall, CHFTHB is expected to move within a range, with the main focus on Risk Sentiment, the SECO Economic Forecast, and CHF direction. Technical Analysis — CHFTHB 1H Bias: Sideway Price rebounded from 40.38 but remains capped by the FVG zone above. If price holds above 40.45, it could move higher to test 40.48–40.50. However, failure to break above 40.45 could lead to a pullback or sideways consolidation. Resistance: 40.45 / 40.48 / 40.50 Support: 40.38 Target: 40.48 → 40.50 Cut Loss: 40.37

Gold Week 38/2026: Gold ETFs Push Back Against Rising Rates

Gold Week 38/2026: Stuck as Gold ETFs Push Back Against Rising Rates Two days before the Fed meeting, the world's largest gold fund bought another 2.86 tonnes. Let me say that again: bought more, right before a meeting the whole market had already priced at a 92% chance of a rate hike. A rate hike is the thing gold fears most, because gold pays no interest. And yet the money kept coming in. That is the detail I have thought about most in week 38, more than the Fed decision itself. 🏛️ The Fed hiked, but gold did not break down Early Thursday morning Vietnam time, the Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00%, a 25 basis point hike. The first increase since July 2023. The vote was 12 to 0, not a single dissent. The projections that came with it were tougher than the decision itself. The median rate for end 2026 is 4.10%, which implies at least one more hike across the two meetings left. The Fed raised its inflation forecast to 3.70% while cutting its unemployment forecast to 4.10%. Put plainly, they still have room to tighten, and they intend to use it. The US 10 year yield touched 5.01%, the highest since 2007. Chairman Kevin Warsh said at the press conference that the Fed cannot affect any individual price, but it will stop that change from broadening into second and third order effects. In plain language: the Fed knows a rate hike does not produce a single extra barrel of oil, it is hiking to protect its credibility. With that much bad news, gold should have broken down. On 16 September the price spiked to 4,367 then fell straight to 4,235, a 132 dollar range in one session. But it still closed at 4,280, and this morning it is trading around 4,299. No breakdown. No return to the 39xx area. Every drop has been bought back quickly. 💰 The flows are what matter I pulled the fund numbers to check. From 31 August to 16 September, gold lost $233.84 an ounce. Over the same stretch the fund's holdings rose from 1,042.36 tonnes to 1,050.28 tonnes, almost 8 tonnes more. Price falling, fund accumulating. Those two things happened at the same time, and not by accident. Wider still, World Gold Council data shows global gold ETFs took in $17.86 billion in August alone. The full year to 11 September is $33.20 billion. So a single month of August is worth more than half of the entire year. This is not fast money chasing headlines. This is long term allocation, and it does not reprice because of one meeting. I think this point matters more than any resistance line drawn on a chart. Trading against flows that size is an expensive habit. 🇯🇵 There is still one more meeting to come The BoJ meets on Friday morning. A Bloomberg survey has 52 out of 52 economists expecting Japan to raise rates from 1.00% to 1.25%. This is where it gets interesting. If the BoJ hikes and pairs it with a tone tougher than the Fed's, the rate gap between the US and Japan narrows, the yen strengthens and the dollar softens. A softer dollar gives gold room to breathe. The BoE reports tonight as well. UK labour data on Tuesday afternoon was ugly: the claimant count rose by 27.8 thousand against a forecast of only 8.3 thousand, and it had been falling the month before. Inflation says hike, jobs say stop. Three major central banks deciding across three consecutive days. Flows cannot reprice all of that in a single night. They need time to redistribute. That is why I am not drawing conclusions from the market's first reaction. 📊 Where gold is stuck https://www.tradingview.com/x/bmDuqoTv/ On the 1 hour chart, gold sits at 4,299, hugging the 10 EMA at 4,294, with RSI around 47.8. No clear momentum either way. The short term resistance zone I have marked is 4,413 to 4,455. It lines up with the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 4,413.68 of the decline from the 4,695 high to the 3,958 low, and it also lines up with the area that has capped price several times in September. The short term support zone is 4,169 to 4,229. The 0.618 Fibonacci sits at 4,239.62, just above the top of that zone. The low of the Fed session on 16 September was 4,235, which means price tagged the edge of the zone and bounced straight back. The rising trendline drawn from the July low has been broken, so I no longer treat this as one continuous uptrend. My forecast is that gold stays stuck between 4,169 and 4,455 until a daily candle closes decisively outside the range. 🎯 What I am thinking https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lpew82fD/ I am not betting on either side of the meeting. I wait for the reaction first. For the 4,169 to 4,229 support zone, I treat it as an area to watch for a chance to trade with the direction the money is moving, not an area to catch a falling knife. The condition is that price has to show it is stopping right there, not simply touching it. For the 4,413 to 4,455 resistance zone, I treat it as a place to trim a position if I am holding, not a place to short just because the chart has a horizontal line there. Sellers need to be very careful here. Yields at a nineteen year high, the dollar recovering and printing a short term top, the Fed just hiked and is threatening more. And gold still refuses to break down. When bad news stops pushing price any lower, it is usually because someone is buying underneath. The fund numbers above show there really is someone there. ⚠️ What would prove me wrong The scenario that most clearly proves me wrong is oil cooling off. This whole inflation story rests on the oil price. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was hit by drones on 11 September and has been shut since, pushing oil up almost 24% in a month. If the repair is as quick as the US Energy Department says, a matter of days, then oil falls, inflation cools and the Fed has its excuse to stop. The story changes completely at that point. The second scenario is the BoJ hiking but signalling softly. The dollar holds its strength and gold loses the support it was getting from the currency side. And if price closes a daily candle below 4,169, I drop the entire range scenario above. The next area below is the 0.786 Fibonacci at 4,115. This is my personal view, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Your money, your decision. --- P/S: Don't forget to leave a Like and ask anything you'd like to discuss to trade better every day! Follow tohaitrieu on TradingView to stay connected for the long haul, and talk through each trade together. I believe sharing and discussion help us learn more, and make every analysis and every comment on TradingView more useful for everyone ⚡️

GBPTHB Eyes BoE Decision

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, GBPTHB closed at 44.82 in the Thai market. UK inflation accelerated as expected, while Core CPI remained unchanged, indicating that inflationary pressure persisted. Meanwhile, the Fed raised interest rates, strengthening the USD and putting pressure on GBPTHB. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today | Forecast | Previous UK: 18:00 Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% UK: 18:00 MPC Rate Cut Vote | 0 | 0 UK: 18:00 MPC Rate Hike Vote | 3 | 3 Today's key GBP event is the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting. The interest rate is expected to remain at 3.75%, unchanged from the previous meeting. The MPC vote is expected to show 3 votes for a rate hike and no votes for a rate cut. Markets will focus on both the interest-rate decision and details from the MPC meeting, as these could provide insight into policymakers' views on inflation and the future monetary policy path. A more hawkish-than-expected tone could support the GBP, while more dovish signals could pressure the GBP. Overall, GBPTHB is expected to remain highly volatile, with the main focus on the BoE, MPC vote, and GBP direction. Technical Analysis — GBPTHB 1H Bias: Sideway Price rebounded from 44.60 and has started to recover. If price holds above 44.70, it could move higher to test 44.75–44.77. However, failure to break above 44.75 could lead to a pullback or sideways consolidation. Markets are also closely watching the BoE meeting outcome today, which could increase GBP volatility. Resistance: 44.75 / 44.77 Support: 44.60 Target: 44.75 → 44.77 Cut Loss: 44.59

AUDTHB Holds Bullish Bias

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, AUDTHB closed at 23.72 in the Thai market. The MI Leading Index MoM remained broadly unchanged from the previous reading, suggesting that the outlook for Australia's economic momentum remained stable. Meanwhile, the Fed raised interest rates, strengthening the USD and putting pressure on AUDTHB. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today There are no high-impact Australian economic releases today. Therefore, the AUD is expected to be driven mainly by external factors, particularly the Chinese economic outlook, commodity prices, Risk Sentiment, and USD direction, which could affect capital flows into the AUD. AUDTHB has rebounded from 23.62 as markets increased expectations of an RBA rate hike amid inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the Thai baht has been pressured by a stronger USD following the Fed's Hawkish signal. This could support AUDTHB's recovery toward 23.71–23.73. Overall, AUDTHB is expected to move within a range with a slight upside bias, with the main focus on Risk Sentiment, China, Commodities, and USD direction. Technical Analysis — AUDTHB 1H Bias: Sideway Up / Bullish Price rebounded from 23.62 and is recovering within the 23.62–23.71 range. If price breaks and holds above 23.71, it could move higher to test 23.73. However, failure to break above 23.71 could lead to a pullback or sideways consolidation. Resistance: 23.71 / 23.73 Support: 23.62 Target: 23.71 → 23.73 Cut Loss: 23.61

XAUUSD: First Fed Hike in 3 Years — Can Daily Support Hold?

📊 Market Context The Fed just delivered its first rate hike since 2023 — 25bp to 3.75%–4%, unanimous 12-0. Chair Kevin Warsh made the message unmistakable: inflation has been "too high for too long." The statement dropped references to temporary energy shocks, placed the burden squarely on monetary policy, and signaled one more hike may be coming this year. Middle East tensions were explicitly cited as a contributing factor. For gold, the macro read is straightforwardly bearish: higher real yields, a stronger dollar, rising opportunity costs for a non-yielding asset. Yet XAUUSD TVC:GOLD is sitting at 4,282 — right on a daily support zone that has been holding. This is a decision zone, not a breakdown zone. 📉 Technical Structure Price has pulled back sharply from the 4,697 swing high, printing lower highs and lower lows. Multiple moving averages sit overhead. The short-term trend is under pressure. Key levels: Resistance: 4,315–4,331 (MA cluster) → 4,350–4,371 (recovery zone) → 4,408–4,415 (major resistance) → 4,434–4,510 → 4,697 (swing high) Support: 4,276–4,282 (current) → 4,252 → 4,100 → 3,942 (higher-timeframe) 🎯 Core Thesis Below 4,350–4,371, the bias stays bearish. The cleanest setup is a short on a rejection into that zone — look for a bearish rejection candle, a lower high, and failure to reclaim 4,315–4,331. Confirmation from a stronger dollar or rising Treasury yields would add weight. Bearish targets: 4,252 → 4,100 → 3,942 (extended if macro pressure accelerates). A daily close below 4,276 would confirm the support has failed and sellers remain in control. ⚠️ Risk View But support hasn't broken yet. If 4,276–4,282 holds and price reclaims 4,315–4,331, a relief rebound is live — especially if the dollar fades, yields retreat, or the hike was already fully priced in. A sustained break above 4,350–4,371 would be the first real sign the bearish structure is cracking. Above 4,415, the bearish thesis is invalidated. 🔑 Conclusion The FOMC created a fundamentally bearish setup for gold — higher rates, elevated real yields, potential dollar strength. But price is testing daily support, not breaking it. My read: below 4,350–4,371, stay bearish. Watch 4,276–4,282 for the next move — a break below opens 4,252 and 4,100; a hold and reclaim of 4,331 shifts the tone. I'm tracking the dollar and Treasury yields alongside price for confirmation of the next XAUUSD move. Trade gold and major stock indices through Bitget CFD, including XAUUSD, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq — and stay prepared for opportunities created by FOMC, CPI, nonfarm payrolls and Treasury-yield volatility. ⚠️ Risk warning CFDs are leveraged derivatives and can result in rapid losses. Losses may exceed your initial margin. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your leverage, position size and risk before trading.

Bitcoin absorbs Fed rate hike as officials see more tightening

Bitcoin showed little immediate reaction to the Fed’s first rate increase since 2023, but 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike before the end of the year.

Cointelegraph•Cointelegraph by Felix Ng17 Sept

EURTHB Eyes Eurozone CPI

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, EURTHB closed at 38.41 in the Thai market. Eurozone manufacturing data came in slightly better than expected, while wage growth slowed, suggesting that the overall economic outlook remained broadly stable. Meanwhile, the Fed raised interest rates, supporting the USD and putting pressure on EURTHB. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today | Forecast | Previous EU: 16:00 Eurozone CPI YoY | 3.3% | 2.9% EU: 16:00 Eurozone Core CPI YoY | 2.4% | 2.5% EU: 16:00 Eurozone CPI MoM | 2.9% | 0.2% Today's key European data are the Eurozone inflation figures. CPI YoY is forecast to rise to 3.3% from 2.9%, while Core CPI YoY is expected to ease slightly from 2.5% to 2.4%. Markets will therefore focus on which components are driving the increase in headline inflation. If headline inflation comes in above expectations, markets may assess the ECB's monetary policy outlook as more restrictive, potentially supporting the EUR. Meanwhile, slower Core CPI could reduce underlying inflationary pressure. Overall, EURTHB is expected to remain volatile within a range, with the main focus on Eurozone CPI, the ECB interest-rate outlook, and European Bond Yields. Technical Analysis — EURTHB 1H Bias: Sideway Price is moving within the 38.27–38.35 range after breaking below the 38.35 zone. If price holds above 38.27, it could rebound to test 38.35–38.37. However, a break below 38.22 would make the downside structure more pronounced. Resistance: 38.35 / 38.37 Support: 38.27 / 38.22 Target: 38.35 → 38.37 Cut Loss: 38.22

Fed Increased Rates, Why is The Crypto Market Up?

The Fed's first rate hike since 2023 was widely expected. Here's why Bitcoin climbed instead of selling off.

BeInCrypto•Darryn Pollock17 Sept

ETHUSDT: Price Under Pressure, Sellers Control

ETHUSDT is trading around 2,418 USDT and remains within a descending channel. The current rebound lacks the strength to alter the market structure, as the price stays below the EMA89 (near 2,449) and overhead resistance continues to exert selling pressure. The 2,450–2,490 zone serves as a critical resistance area. If ETH rallies to this level but faces rejection—specifically below the EMA cluster and the channel's upper boundary—I lean towards a scenario where the price retreats to 2,380 before extending toward the primary target near 2,320 USDT. Macroeconomic factors and capital flows currently support a bearish outlook. The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates by 25 bps and signaled the possibility of further hikes this year, driving the USD to a seven-week high and causing short-term yields to surge. Ethereum faces additional pressure following the failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate; FXStreet reported a roughly 3.4% drop in ETH, alongside the largest single-day outflow from US spot Ethereum funds since January. The bearish scenario would be invalidated if ETH breaks out of the channel and establishes firm support above the 2,490–2,500 range.

Gold Under Pressure — Sellers Remain in Control

XAUUSD is currently showing a clear short-term BEARISH bias , as both the post-Fed macro backdrop and the H1 technical structure remain unsupportive of a sustainable recovery. From a fundamental perspective , gold remains under pressure after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and left the door open for further tightening if inflation does not cool sufficiently. U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, while the dollar continues to receive support following the decision. This high-rate environment remains unfavorable for gold , making short-term rebounds vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. On the H1 timeframe, the bearish structure remains clearly intact . XAUUSD continues to trade below the descending trendline drawn from previous highs, while the latest rally reached the trendline area before being quickly rejected. Price is also trading around the Ichimoku structure, suggesting that buyers have yet to produce a breakout strong enough to change the current market structure. The 4,335–4,345 area remains a key resistance zone . As long as XAUUSD stays below this region and the descending trendline remains intact, rebounds are likely to attract sellers. If bearish pressure returns, the 4,235–4,250 area becomes the next important downside target. Overall, XAUUSD currently looks like a technical recovery within a broader bearish structure . I continue to favor SELL setups on rebounds into resistance with price-action confirmation , rather than trying to catch the bottom before buyers have clearly regained control.

USDTHB Tracks USD Direction

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, USDTHB was supported by the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023, or in more than three years. The Fed continued to emphasize controlling inflation, while the U.S. economic outlook remained relatively strong. Regarding the Fed's interest-rate outlook, the Dot Plot signaled the possibility of one additional rate hike in 2026. With inflation still above the Fed's 2% target, markets will continue to closely monitor upcoming economic and inflation data. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today | Forecast | Previous US: 19:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 31.3 | 47.4 US: 19:30 Initial Jobless Claims | 207K | 206K US: 19:30 Housing Starts | 1.320M | 1.239M Today's key U.S. economic release is the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, forecast at 31.3, down from the previous 47.4, suggesting that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region could slow. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the USD. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims are forecast at 207K, up slightly from 206K, suggesting a slight softening in the labor market. Housing Starts are forecast at 1.320M, up from 1.239M. A stronger-than-expected reading could support the outlook for the U.S. economy and the USD. Overall, USDTHB is expected to remain highly volatile, with the main focus on labor-market data, manufacturing activity, USD direction, and U.S. Bond Yields. Technical Analysis — USDTHB 1H Bias: Bullish Following the Fed's 0.25% rate hike to 3.75–4.00% and its signal that another rate hike could be possible, the USD strengthened. The chart structure remains bullish. If price holds above 33.35, it could move higher to test 33.45 → 33.50. Resistance: 33.45 Support: 33.35 Target: 33.50 Cut Loss: 33.32

BTCUSDT: Bearish Take Control, Downward Wave!

BTCUSDT is trading around 76,230 USDT and remains within a descending channel. The current rebound lacks the strength to alter the market structure, as the price stays below the EMA34 (approx. 76,530) and EMA89 (approx. 77,200), while the pattern of lower highs persists. The 76,800–77,800 zone is a critical resistance area to watch. If BTC rallies to this region but faces rejection below the EMA cluster and the channel's upper boundary, I lean towards a scenario where the price drops to 75,000, followed by an extension toward the primary target near 74,000 USDT. Today's macroeconomic data reinforces the bearish outlook. The Fed has raised interest rates by 25 bps to the 3.75%–4.00% range, with most officials anticipating at least one more hike before year-end. Following this decision, the USD strengthened, Treasury yields rose, and US equities fell—creating an unfavorable environment for Bitcoin and risk-on assets. The bearish scenario would lose momentum if BTC breaks out of the channel and holds firmly above the 77,800–78,000 level.

DXY Rips Higher on Fed's Hawkish Hike: FX Major Analysis

A technical view of the US dollar index alongside OIS relative to Fed rates, seasonality - then onto a outlook on FX majors. MS

H1 Corrective Recovery Into Bearish Resistance

XAUUSD is trading around 4,310 after rebounding from the 4,254 previous-support target. The reaction confirms that buyers are defending the lower H1 structure, but the broader market remains bearish beneath the descending trendline. The macro backdrop remains difficult for gold after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years. The Fed also signaled that further tightening remains possible, with 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one additional 25 bp increase this year. The dollar index climbed to a five-week high after the decision. Gold initially traded above 4,365 before falling more than 1% after the Fed announcement, reflecting renewed pressure from higher rates and a stronger dollar. Technical View The H1 structure remains inside a descending channel, with lower highs still controlling the broader direction. However, price has reacted strongly from the lower liquidity area and is now holding the 4,280–4,310 Pullback Zone. As long as this zone holds, a corrective recovery toward the descending trendline remains possible. The first recovery objective sits around 4,340–4,360. Above that, the key decision area is the 4,375–4,400 Order Block, where bearish structure and dynamic resistance align. If buyers establish acceptance above that OB, price could extend toward the 4,425–4,445 Resistance Zone. Key Zones Current Price: 4,309.920 Pullback / Support Zone: 4,280–4,310 First Recovery Area: 4,340–4,360 Order Block / Main Decision: 4,375–4,400 Resistance Zone: 4,425–4,445 Major Resistance: 4,470–4,490 Structural Support: 4,235–4,255 Trading Plan Buy Priority: 4,280–4,310 Condition: wait for price to hold the pullback zone and show bullish rejection, liquidity reclaim, higher-low formation or bullish MSS confirmation. TP1: 4,340–4,360 TP2: 4,375–4,400 TP3: 4,425–4,445 Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance below 4,255. Buy/Sell View This remains a corrective long inside a broader bearish H1 structure, not confirmation of a full trend reversal. The stronger bearish reaction area remains 4,375–4,400. If price reaches this zone and sellers regain control, the recovery should be reassessed rather than automatically expecting continuation higher. Final View Gold has reacted from lower structural support, but the Fed’s hawkish rate hike keeps the broader macro environment defensive. The main scenario is a confirmed recovery from 4,280–4,310 toward 4,375–4,400. That Order Block will determine whether the rebound can expand toward 4,425–4,445 or whether sellers regain control. Can buyers hold the pullback zone and complete the H1 recovery into the bearish Order Block?

XAUUSD - Daily Analysis

The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points, sending gold down to $4,250. Price is now making a corrective move. If price breaks above the 0.5 Fib level, look for continuation to the upside, with the 0.5 Fib level potentially flipping from resistance to support. If price continues to decline, look for the 0.618 Fib level to act as support.

Peter Navarro says Fed’s rate raise is ‘a bad decision’

White House adviser Peter Navarro on Wednesday blasted the Federal Reserve’s move to raise interest rates in several years, calling it “a bad decision.” The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, voted unanimously to increase the central bank’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent. Warsh…

The Hill•Ryan Mancini17 Sept

GOLD — THE FED GAVE US THE MOVE… NOW WHAT?

We've been sitting in consolidation for most of the week waiting for the Fed. Well... we finally got the catalyst. The Fed raised rates by 25bps today, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, while also signaling that inflation remains elevated and that additional tightening could still be on the table. And Gold initially reacted exactly how you'd expect. Straight down. But here's where I'm getting interested. That selloff pushed price directly into the area I've been waiting for. The H4 FVG was largely filled, and price also swept the lows. Now I'm watching to see what happens after the liquidity grab. Because at this point, I don't necessarily want to chase the downside. I want to see if sellers can actually hold the lower prices. 🔵 THE BULLISH IDEA The level I'm watching now is the Previous Weekly Low around 4,339.7. Price is currently below it. So I'm not calling a long simply because we swept the lows. I want to see price reclaim that level. If we push back above the Previous Weekly Low, then I want to see whether we can retest it from above and hold. Something like: Sweep the lows → FVG fill → buyers step in → reclaim PWL → successful retest → continuation. THAT is the setup I'm interested in. If that happens, the Fed reaction could end up being the liquidity event that gave buyers the opportunity to step back in. 🔴 BUT I'M NOT GOING TO FORCE THE BULLISH STORY This is the part that's important. The Fed just delivered a hawkish catalyst, and the initial reaction was bearish for Gold. So if price cannot reclaim the Previous Weekly Low, I'm not going to sit here saying: "Well... they swept the lows, so it has to go up." Nope. If sellers continue accepting price below that level, then the sweep wasn't necessarily a reversal. It may simply have been the beginning of another leg lower. And that's when I'm looking for the next area where Gold may want to react. 📊 WHAT I'M WATCHING IN ORDER FLOW This is where the DOM/order flow becomes important for me. I want to see whether the aggressive selling we're getting after the Fed actually produces continued downside acceptance. If sellers keep hitting the market but price stops making meaningful progress lower... That's interesting. If buyers begin absorbing that selling... Even more interesting. Then we reclaim the Previous Weekly Low? Now we've got something I can actually work with. I'm not trying to predict the reversal. I'm waiting for the market to prove it. 🎯 MY PLAN Bullish scenario: 🔹 H4 FVG gets filled 🔹 Lows get swept 🔹 Selling pressure begins to dry up 🔹 Buyers take control 🔹 Price reclaims ~4,339.7 🔹 Retest holds 🔹 Look for continuation higher Bearish scenario: 🔻 Price remains below the Previous Weekly Low 🔻 Sellers continue accepting lower prices 🔻 Reclaim attempt fails 🔻 No reason for me to force a long 🔻 Wait for the next major level/FVG The key for me is 4,339.7. I don't need to catch the exact bottom. I'd rather miss the first 30–50 points and get confirmation that buyers have actually taken control than try to call the bottom and get run over if sellers aren't finished. The news created the volatility. Now I'm watching price tell me what that volatility actually means. Let it show its hand. #Gold #MGC #GC #GoldFutures #FuturesTrading #OrderFlow #PriceAction #VolumeProfile #MarketStructure #TradingView #DayTrading #Futures #COMEX #GoldTrading

ETH Ignored Two Confirmed Bearish Catalysts. That's the Signal.

Two of the most bearish catalysts crypto could've been handed in one week landed within days of each other. The Clarity Act failed to pass. The Fed hiked 25bps instead of cutting. Either headline alone should have sent ETH through its range lows. It didn't happen. ETH ran a clean ABC correction straight into the news. Wave C dropped into the exact same zone that's held for days. Instead of breaking down on two confirmed bearish catalysts, price compressed at the lows, volume drying up candle by candle, then printed a Change of Character straight back through the range, reclaiming 2,421 without ever tagging a lower low. That's not indifference to bad news. That's exhaustion. Whoever was going to sell on Clarity failing or a hike landing already sold on the move down into C. By the time the headlines hit, there was nobody left on that side to press it lower. Under CAP, a CHoCH at range lows immediately following confirmed bearish catalysts, with no lower low made, is one of the highest conviction reversal signatures the framework tracks. The reaction to the news mattered more than the news itself. The fear was never in the headline. It was in the room that had already emptied out before the headline arrived.