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Coverage, page 7

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Japan 225 Holds Key Support – Can Buyers Regain Momentum?

Market Structure Japan 225 remains in a short-term bearish structure on the 4-hour chart. Although selling pressure has eased near the recent lows, the index continues to trade below previous swing highs, suggesting that the broader trend has yet to turn higher. Price is currently consolidating around a key support area, waiting for fresh directional momentum. Market Sentiment - Bearish Although selling pressure has slowed near support, the overall structure continues to show lower highs and lower lows. Buyers have not yet reclaimed the key resistance levels, so the short-term sentiment remains bearish until a confirmed breakout occurs. Bullish Scenario If price continues to hold above the 63,500 support area and breaks above 64,300, bullish momentum could strengthen and open the way toward the 64,900 resistance zone. A sustained move above that level would suggest buyers are regaining control. Bearish Scenario If price breaks below 63,500, selling pressure could increase and drive the index toward the 63,000 support area. Losing that level may trigger another wave of downside momentum. ──────────────────── Market Outlook Japan 225 is currently trading near an important support zone after an extended decline. While downside momentum has slowed, buyers still need to reclaim key resistance levels before confirming a stronger recovery. ──────────────────── Key Levels First Resistance: 64,300 Second Resistance: 64,900 First Support: 63,500 Second Support: 63,000 ──────────────────── Future Scenarios A break above the first resistance would indicate improving buying momentum and could lead to another attempt toward the second resistance. On the other hand, a break below the first support would reinforce the current bearish structure and increase the probability of a move toward the second support. ──────────────────── Event Risk Japan 225 may remain sensitive to Bank of Japan policy expectations, U.S. market performance, global risk sentiment, and movements in the Japanese yen. Price action remains the key signal. If positive news fails to lift the index above the first resistance, upside momentum may remain limited. Conversely, a break below the first support would indicate that sellers are still in control. ──────────────────── Please share your view below: Do you think Japan 225 will rebound from this support area, or is another move lower more likely? More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly.

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept

Cate Blanchett to Attend Tokyo Festival for Japan Premiere of Displacement Film Fund Shorts

Cate Blanchett will travel to Tokyo for the 39th edition of the Tokyo International Film Festival, where five short films backed by the Displacement Film Fund will receive their Japan premieres. Blanchett co-founded the Displacement Film Fund, which supports displaced filmmakers and those with a demonstrated history of telling authentic stories rooted in the experiences […]

VarietyVariety•Naman Ramachandran16 Sept

USD/JPY the 5-Year Trendline

USD/JPY current support plots around 153, which is confluent with a long-term trendline connecting lows from 2021. With both the Fed and BoJ expected to hike later this week, the bigger question is in what else they might have to say. And after last week's comment from Scott Bessent, he seemed to imply that the BoJ and/or Japanese policymakers might have more on the matter. While inflation in Japan remains below their 2% target, future inflation is a concern as oil prices flare and with a weak Yen, there's little reason for bond holders to want to hold Japanese 10-year debt which is getting more and more comfortable above the 3% level. So the matter of importance for JPY - and for USD and in-turn the FX market this week - is what else might Kazuo Ueda have to say at the BoJ rate decision. - JS

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

Kurosawa Kiyoshi’s Cannes Title ‘The Samurai and the Prisoner’ Sells Wide for Charades (EXCLUSIVE)

Kurosawa Kiyoshi’s “The Samurai and the Prisoner,” which had its world premiere in the Cannes Premiere section, has attracted distribution deals spanning multiple territories through sales agent Charades. Distributed by Shochiku in Japan, the film has crossed JPY1.1 billion ($7.1 million) at the Japanese box office on 800,000 admissions. Janus Films holds rights for the […]

VarietyVariety•Naman Ramachandran15 Sept

USDJPY pulls back ahead of FOMC

USDJPY has been consolidating in a tight range around the 154 area and is now attempting to push toward the upper boundary. With the US dollar supported by rising Treasury yields, the pair could extend its recovery over the coming sessions. USDJPY has been under pressure since the beginning of September as expectations for tighter Bank of Japan policy encouraged some unwinding of carry trades. However, the interest-rate differential between the US and Japan remains wide, while the recent surge in US Treasury yields continues to provide support for the dollar. From a technical perspective, USDJPY is also recovering from potentially oversold levels according to the stochastic indicator. With price trading between the lower Bollinger Band and the 20-day moving average above, there is room for the pair to recover further if the current momentum continues. But this week will be heavily driven by central banks, with the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday and Bank of Japan’s decision on Friday. A more hawkish BOJ could strengthen the yen and challenge our bullish USDJPY setup. Any dovish surprise from the FED could do that too, otherwise conditions for the trade won’t change. Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept

USDJPY W38 — the recoveries are getting weaker

US Treasury yields have moved above 5%, yet USDJPY remains well below its July high. Earlier sharp declines were eventually recovered. The rebound after July stopped short of restoring the previous peak, and September brought another substantial decline. That combination makes USDJPY worth watching into this week’s Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings. The question is whether the recent yen strength survives the announcements and begins to affect risk assets more broadly. Japanese equities already show a weaker structure, while Nasdaq provides a useful test outside Japan. For the broader stress thesis to develop, those markets need to do more than react to the same headline. They need to sustain the move after the initial volatility passes. THE CHANGE IN USDJPY https://www.tradingview.com/x/WsmZ8LPx/ The daily chart shows why the recovery matters as much as the initial decline. Several sharp selloffs earlier in the year were followed by substantial rebounds. Buyers eventually recovered the lost ground, and USDJPY went on to trade higher. The more recent sequence has been different. After the July peak, the pair fell sharply and recovered only part of the decline. The August rebound remained below that peak. September then produced another leg lower, leaving the current recovery beneath both earlier highs. This gives us an observable change: buyers have become less effective at repairing the damage after a selloff. A carry position typically combines borrowing in a lower-yielding currency with exposure to a higher-yielding asset. Its interest income accumulates gradually, while an adverse currency move can create losses quickly. A strengthening funding currency therefore becomes more consequential when it persists long enough to outweigh the income that made the position attractive. That mechanism offers one possible explanation for a weaker USDJPY recovery. The chart alone cannot establish how much carry exposure has been reduced or who is selling. It also cannot identify an intervention from the shape of a candle. Official intervention, changing policy expectations and position adjustment can all produce sharp moves. For this analysis, the useful evidence is what follows: whether buyers recover the decline, or whether the rebound fails and another lower low develops. THE RATES TEST https://www.tradingview.com/x/svufKuyg/ The US10Y snapshot shows yields above 5% and an upward trend into the event window. All else equal, higher US yields can support demand for dollar assets. USDJPY’s failure to return to its July high therefore deserves attention alongside that rates backdrop. There is an essential qualification. The US yield is only one side of the comparison. Japanese yields, expected policy paths and the maturity of the exposure all matter. The ten-year yield also contains inflation and term-premium components; it is not a direct measure of the short-term funding return available to a carry trader. A sustained USDJPY decline alongside falling US yields would be consistent with a reduction in the dollar’s rate advantage. A decline while US yields remain elevated would raise a more interesting question, but answering it would still require the Japanese side of the spread. This is why the response to the meetings matters. A policy decision can move short-term rate expectations and longer-dated bond yields differently. The useful test is whether the resulting rates environment helps USDJPY recover—and whether that recovery holds. THE JAPAN TEST https://www.tradingview.com/x/wnJju7JW/ The Nikkei chart has failed to recover its June peak. The August rally crossed the descending trendline, but it did not establish a lasting upward structure. Selling returned, and the index subsequently moved lower through a series of rebounds and renewed declines. That failed improvement is more informative than the trendline crossing itself. Buyers managed to change the appearance of the chart temporarily, but they did not regain control of the broader sequence. A stronger yen can affect Japanese equities through several channels. It can reduce the yen value of overseas earnings for some exporters, alter investment incentives and increase pressure on positions funded in yen. These effects vary across companies and portfolios, so yen appreciation does not translate mechanically into an index decline. The recent September lows provide the first practical test. If USDJPY weakens further while Japanese equities continue defending those lows, the currency move has yet to produce the equity deterioration required by this thesis. If the Nikkei breaks below them, attempts to recover the broken area and then turns lower again, the evidence becomes stronger. A subsequent move through the July low would extend that deterioration to a larger part of the chart. These are separate stages, and each needs its own confirmation. THE GLOBAL TEST https://www.tradingview.com/x/SXY6Vwx2/ Nasdaq tests whether the weakness is broadening beyond Japan. The chart here is the Pepperstone NAS100 cash CFD, so its session boundaries and gaps should be read on that basis. The recent opening gap and rebound attracted attention, but the gap itself does not establish a directional edge. The more useful observation is that the rebound has so far failed to restore the earlier September highs, leaving price back near the lower part of its recent structure. The next recovery matters. If buyers reclaim the breakdown area, establish a higher low and sustain the advance, Nasdaq would be absorbing the pressure. That would weaken the argument that the currency move is becoming a broader risk event. If rebounds continue to fail and the recent lows give way while USDJPY and the Nikkei are also weakening, the evidence for a wider adjustment increases. Even then, simultaneous declines would show participation across markets rather than prove a common funding cause. US equities can fall because of yields, earnings expectations or other developments independently of the yen. Evidence from positioning, credit and funding markets would be needed to make the stronger causal claim. WHAT WOULD CONFIRM IT The sequence begins with USDJPY sustaining its weakness beyond the initial central-bank reaction. A daily close below the September low shown in the snapshot would provide the first additional evidence. A recovery that fails to regain that broken area, followed by another lower low, would make the change more convincing. Japanese equities then need to participate. On the four-hour Nikkei chart, I would look for a close below the recent September lows and a subsequent failed recovery of that area. Nasdaq would provide the next layer if it also closes below its recent lows and fails to regain them on the rebound. These conditions distinguish a brief excursion through support from a market beginning to sustain lower prices. A single wick does not satisfy them, and a closing break remains provisional until the response becomes visible. The complete sequence would strengthen the case for a broader risk adjustment associated with persistent yen strength. It would still leave the scale and source of any forced position reduction open. WHAT WOULD INVALIDATE IT A sharp yen rally that is rapidly reversed would undermine the immediate event thesis. If USDJPY sweeps its September low, recovers it, establishes a higher low and breaks above the intervening rebound high, sellers would have failed to sustain the next leg. A sustained recovery above the August rebound high would challenge the larger sequence of weakening recoveries. That would be a more substantial structural reversal than one strong session after an announcement. The broader stress case also needs to be judged separately from the currency view. If the Nikkei recovers its recent September highs and Nasdaq repairs its breakdown while USDJPY remains soft, yen strength may persist without the equity transmission this post is testing. The W38 assessment belongs at Friday’s close, using the reference swings visible in these snapshots. If the breaks and failed recoveries have not developed by then, the weekly stress thesis remains unconfirmed. The observation window should not be extended simply to preserve the argument. THE LIMITS This is a framework for interpreting price reactions. No historical probability has been established here for this exact combination of USDJPY, yields and equity structures. The charts were captured on September 15. USDJPY is shown on the daily timeframe; the Nikkei and Nasdaq CFDs are shown on four-hour charts. Their session conventions differ, and the reference swings are those visible at the time of writing. US10Y does not establish the full US–Japan rate differential. Price action does not reveal the size of carry positions, and a stronger yen can coexist with resilient equities. The useful change so far is that USDJPY’s recoveries have become less complete. This week tests whether that behaviour persists—and whether the equity markets begin sustaining the same deterioration.

TITradingView Ideas15 Sept