XAUUSD H1: Gold Has Two Floors, but Only One Can Save It
Gold just gave us one of those moves that can easily fool both sides.
Price rallied from the 4,260 area, climbed all the way toward 4,365, and then lost almost the entire move in a single aggressive sell-off.
Now Gold is sitting around 4,290.
So what happened?
Buyers proved they can push.
Sellers proved they can hit harder.
And that leaves price in a very interesting place.
Instead of predicting the next candle, I am dividing today's chart into three floors.
4,260 → the defense
4,324 → the checkpoint
4,365 → the control level
Whichever side starts taking these floors will tell us much more than the current candle ever could.
Floor #1 is already under attack
The most obvious area on the chart is the H1 Order Block around 4,258–4,272.
This is where the latest collapse found buyers.
But I do not want to BUY simply because price returns there.
There is a difference between touching support and proving support works.
If Gold revisits 4,258–4,272, I want sellers to attack the zone first.
Then I want buyers to take it back.
In practical terms, a dip into the Order Block followed by an H1 recovery above approximately 4,275 gives me the confirmation I need.
BUY — SECOND DEFENSE
Entry: 4,272–4,280 after H1 reclaim
SL: 4,250
TP1: 4,305
TP2: 4,324
TP3: 4,350
TP4: 4,365
Notice where TP2 sits.
That is not a random target.
4,324 is where today's chart changes character.
4,324 is not resistance. It is a checkpoint.
Gold is currently below 4,324, and the short-term EMAs are also sitting overhead.
That means a bounce from 4,260 is only a bounce until proven otherwise.
For buyers to earn something more, I want an H1 candle to close above 4,324, followed by a retest that remains above approximately 4,315–4,324.
If that happens, I would stop treating every rally as something to sell.
BUY — CHECKPOINT RECLAIM
Entry: 4,320–4,327 after bullish retest
SL: 4,298
TP1: 4,350
TP2: 4,365
TP3: 4,385
TP4: 4,400
This is the cleaner BUY for traders who do not want to catch the bottom.
You sacrifice a cheaper entry.
In return, you get more information.
That is often a good trade.
But there is unfinished business at 4,365
Look at what happened during the previous rally.
Gold reached approximately 4,360–4,365, met the falling EMA200, and was immediately rejected.
That reaction matters.
It tells us sellers are still defending the upper part of the H1 structure.
And above it sits the larger 4,380–4,400 resistance zone.
So if Gold recovers again, I will not automatically become bullish.
I will watch 4,355–4,370 very carefully.
A second rejection there, especially an H1 candle that trades above 4,355 but closes back below 4,350, would give sellers another opportunity.
SELL — SECOND REJECTION
Entry: 4,348–4,358 after rejection confirmation
SL: 4,375
TP1: 4,324
TP2: 4,300
TP3: 4,275
TP4: 4,260
This trade has a simple idea behind it:
If buyers receive a second opportunity to reclaim the EMA200 and fail again, I do not want to argue with the rejection.
I want to trade it.
What if the Order Block breaks?
This is where the chart becomes much easier.
If Gold produces an H1 close below 4,255, I no longer consider 4,260–4,270 a valid buying area.
Support has had its chance.
It failed.
I would then wait for price to bounce back toward 4,255–4,265 from underneath.
If that retest is rejected:
SELL — FLOOR REMOVED
Entry: 4,255–4,263 after bearish retest
SL: 4,280
TP1: 4,235
TP2: 4,215
TP3: 4,190
The key here is patience.
I do not want to sell a huge red candle below 4,255.
Let the breakdown happen.
Let price come back.
Then see whether former support becomes resistance.
That gives the trade structure instead of emotion.
And 4,400?
That is where I stop looking for reasons to be bearish.
The chart still has a major resistance band around 4,380–4,400, so even a recovery above 4,365 does not automatically mean Gold is free.
For me, an H1 close above 4,400 followed by a successful hold of 4,385–4,400 would be the real structural upgrade.
At that point:
BUY — SELLERS LOSE THE ROOF
Entry: 4,392–4,402 after retest holds
SL: 4,370
TP1: 4,425
TP2: 4,440
TP3: 4,465
TP4: 4,485
Until that happens, 4,400 remains the ceiling.
Above it, the chart becomes a different market.
My map for today is deliberately simple
Forget trying to predict every H1 candle.
Watch who owns the floors.
Below 4,255: sellers have removed the foundation.
4,260–4,275: buyers get their defensive opportunity.
Above 4,324: the recovery starts earning credibility.
Around 4,365: buyers face the EMA200 test again.
Above 4,400: I stop treating this as merely another rebound.
Gold is currently around 4,290, which is almost exactly where I do not want to force a position.
The better trades are sitting at the edges of the map.
4,260 asks whether buyers can defend.
4,324 asks whether they can advance.
4,365 asks whether they can survive resistance.
4,400 asks whether they can finally take control.
Which level do you think gets taken first — 4,260 or 4,324?
TITradingView Ideas17 Sept