XAUUSD — Sell Pressure Below 4,300
Gold is still trading with a bearish intraday structure after failing to reclaim the upper liquidity zone. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD remains under selling pressure, and the current rebound is likely just a temporary pause before price continues lower.
The key idea is simple: as long as gold stays capped below the 4,290–4,300 sell zone, the market may continue rotating down toward the 4,254 support, then extend lower into the 4,235 area and possibly the final wave target near 4,160–4,170.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,290, right below the short-term liquidity sell zone. The recent price action keeps printing lower highs, which tells us that sellers still control the structure.
The area around 4,290–4,300 is important because it acts as immediate resistance. If price continues rejecting from this zone, the market may retest 4,254 first. A break below that support would likely expose the next reaction zone around 4,235–4,245.
From the Elliott Wave view, the chart still supports a bearish continuation. The current movement looks like a corrective wave before another downside leg develops. If sellers stay in control, the market may complete the next push lower toward the 4,160–4,170 target zone.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,290
◌ Sell zone liquidity: 4,288–4,300
◌ Intraday resistance: 4,300–4,310
◌ Strong support: 4,254
◌ Buy scalping wave 4 zone: 4,235–4,245
◌ Main bearish target: 4,160–4,170
◌ Bearish invalidation: above 4,310
⌁ Elliott Wave view
The chart shows a bearish Elliott Wave continuation structure.
Price is struggling below the sell liquidity zone, which may be the ceiling for the current recovery attempt.
If gold cannot break above 4,300, the next move may be a decline toward 4,254.
After that, a short rebound from the 4,235–4,245 wave 4 support zone may appear.
But if the broader bearish structure stays intact, the next selling leg could extend toward 4,160–4,170 to complete the downside wave sequence.
This is why Kelly is still prioritizing the bearish scenario while price remains below resistance.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: Sell around 4,288–4,300 if price shows bearish rejection
Stop Loss: Above 4,310
Take Profit 1: 4,254
Take Profit 2: 4,235–4,245
Take Profit 3: 4,160–4,170
Alternative scenario
If gold breaks above 4,300 and holds above that zone, short-term downside pressure may weaken. In that case, price could recover higher first before sellers return.
◌ Confirmation
Bearish confirmation comes if price continues rejecting below 4,300 and breaks down through 4,254.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold closes above 4,310 with strong momentum. That would suggest the market is no longer respecting the current sell zone.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bearish while gold stays below the 4,288–4,300 liquidity zone. The chart still favors selling rallies rather than chasing buys at the current level.
If sellers defend resistance, gold may continue lower toward 4,254, then 4,235–4,245. A deeper extension could later complete near 4,160–4,170.
Do you think gold will reject directly from this sell zone, or make one more small bounce before the next leg down?
TITradingView Ideas16 Sept
