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AUDTHB Holds Bullish Bias

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, AUDTHB closed at 23.72 in the Thai market. The MI Leading Index MoM remained broadly unchanged from the previous reading, suggesting that the outlook for Australia's economic momentum remained stable. Meanwhile, the Fed raised interest rates, strengthening the USD and putting pressure on AUDTHB. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today There are no high-impact Australian economic releases today. Therefore, the AUD is expected to be driven mainly by external factors, particularly the Chinese economic outlook, commodity prices, Risk Sentiment, and USD direction, which could affect capital flows into the AUD. AUDTHB has rebounded from 23.62 as markets increased expectations of an RBA rate hike amid inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the Thai baht has been pressured by a stronger USD following the Fed's Hawkish signal. This could support AUDTHB's recovery toward 23.71–23.73. Overall, AUDTHB is expected to move within a range with a slight upside bias, with the main focus on Risk Sentiment, China, Commodities, and USD direction. Technical Analysis — AUDTHB 1H Bias: Sideway Up / Bullish Price rebounded from 23.62 and is recovering within the 23.62–23.71 range. If price breaks and holds above 23.71, it could move higher to test 23.73. However, failure to break above 23.71 could lead to a pullback or sideways consolidation. Resistance: 23.71 / 23.73 Support: 23.62 Target: 23.71 → 23.73 Cut Loss: 23.61

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

XAUUSD: First Fed Hike in 3 Years — Can Daily Support Hold?

📊 Market Context The Fed just delivered its first rate hike since 2023 — 25bp to 3.75%–4%, unanimous 12-0. Chair Kevin Warsh made the message unmistakable: inflation has been "too high for too long." The statement dropped references to temporary energy shocks, placed the burden squarely on monetary policy, and signaled one more hike may be coming this year. Middle East tensions were explicitly cited as a contributing factor. For gold, the macro read is straightforwardly bearish: higher real yields, a stronger dollar, rising opportunity costs for a non-yielding asset. Yet XAUUSD TVC:GOLD is sitting at 4,282 — right on a daily support zone that has been holding. This is a decision zone, not a breakdown zone. 📉 Technical Structure Price has pulled back sharply from the 4,697 swing high, printing lower highs and lower lows. Multiple moving averages sit overhead. The short-term trend is under pressure. Key levels: Resistance: 4,315–4,331 (MA cluster) → 4,350–4,371 (recovery zone) → 4,408–4,415 (major resistance) → 4,434–4,510 → 4,697 (swing high) Support: 4,276–4,282 (current) → 4,252 → 4,100 → 3,942 (higher-timeframe) 🎯 Core Thesis Below 4,350–4,371, the bias stays bearish. The cleanest setup is a short on a rejection into that zone — look for a bearish rejection candle, a lower high, and failure to reclaim 4,315–4,331. Confirmation from a stronger dollar or rising Treasury yields would add weight. Bearish targets: 4,252 → 4,100 → 3,942 (extended if macro pressure accelerates). A daily close below 4,276 would confirm the support has failed and sellers remain in control. ⚠️ Risk View But support hasn't broken yet. If 4,276–4,282 holds and price reclaims 4,315–4,331, a relief rebound is live — especially if the dollar fades, yields retreat, or the hike was already fully priced in. A sustained break above 4,350–4,371 would be the first real sign the bearish structure is cracking. Above 4,415, the bearish thesis is invalidated. 🔑 Conclusion The FOMC created a fundamentally bearish setup for gold — higher rates, elevated real yields, potential dollar strength. But price is testing daily support, not breaking it. My read: below 4,350–4,371, stay bearish. Watch 4,276–4,282 for the next move — a break below opens 4,252 and 4,100; a hold and reclaim of 4,331 shifts the tone. I'm tracking the dollar and Treasury yields alongside price for confirmation of the next XAUUSD move. Trade gold and major stock indices through Bitget CFD, including XAUUSD, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq — and stay prepared for opportunities created by FOMC, CPI, nonfarm payrolls and Treasury-yield volatility. ⚠️ Risk warning CFDs are leveraged derivatives and can result in rapid losses. Losses may exceed your initial margin. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your leverage, position size and risk before trading.

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

EURTHB Eyes Eurozone CPI

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, EURTHB closed at 38.41 in the Thai market. Eurozone manufacturing data came in slightly better than expected, while wage growth slowed, suggesting that the overall economic outlook remained broadly stable. Meanwhile, the Fed raised interest rates, supporting the USD and putting pressure on EURTHB. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today | Forecast | Previous EU: 16:00 Eurozone CPI YoY | 3.3% | 2.9% EU: 16:00 Eurozone Core CPI YoY | 2.4% | 2.5% EU: 16:00 Eurozone CPI MoM | 2.9% | 0.2% Today's key European data are the Eurozone inflation figures. CPI YoY is forecast to rise to 3.3% from 2.9%, while Core CPI YoY is expected to ease slightly from 2.5% to 2.4%. Markets will therefore focus on which components are driving the increase in headline inflation. If headline inflation comes in above expectations, markets may assess the ECB's monetary policy outlook as more restrictive, potentially supporting the EUR. Meanwhile, slower Core CPI could reduce underlying inflationary pressure. Overall, EURTHB is expected to remain volatile within a range, with the main focus on Eurozone CPI, the ECB interest-rate outlook, and European Bond Yields. Technical Analysis — EURTHB 1H Bias: Sideway Price is moving within the 38.27–38.35 range after breaking below the 38.35 zone. If price holds above 38.27, it could rebound to test 38.35–38.37. However, a break below 38.22 would make the downside structure more pronounced. Resistance: 38.35 / 38.37 Support: 38.27 / 38.22 Target: 38.35 → 38.37 Cut Loss: 38.22

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

ETHUSDT: Price Under Pressure, Sellers Control

ETHUSDT is trading around 2,418 USDT and remains within a descending channel. The current rebound lacks the strength to alter the market structure, as the price stays below the EMA89 (near 2,449) and overhead resistance continues to exert selling pressure. The 2,450–2,490 zone serves as a critical resistance area. If ETH rallies to this level but faces rejection—specifically below the EMA cluster and the channel's upper boundary—I lean towards a scenario where the price retreats to 2,380 before extending toward the primary target near 2,320 USDT. Macroeconomic factors and capital flows currently support a bearish outlook. The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates by 25 bps and signaled the possibility of further hikes this year, driving the USD to a seven-week high and causing short-term yields to surge. Ethereum faces additional pressure following the failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate; FXStreet reported a roughly 3.4% drop in ETH, alongside the largest single-day outflow from US spot Ethereum funds since January. The bearish scenario would be invalidated if ETH breaks out of the channel and establishes firm support above the 2,490–2,500 range.

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

Gold Under Pressure — Sellers Remain in Control

XAUUSD is currently showing a clear short-term BEARISH bias , as both the post-Fed macro backdrop and the H1 technical structure remain unsupportive of a sustainable recovery. From a fundamental perspective , gold remains under pressure after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and left the door open for further tightening if inflation does not cool sufficiently. U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, while the dollar continues to receive support following the decision. This high-rate environment remains unfavorable for gold , making short-term rebounds vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. On the H1 timeframe, the bearish structure remains clearly intact . XAUUSD continues to trade below the descending trendline drawn from previous highs, while the latest rally reached the trendline area before being quickly rejected. Price is also trading around the Ichimoku structure, suggesting that buyers have yet to produce a breakout strong enough to change the current market structure. The 4,335–4,345 area remains a key resistance zone . As long as XAUUSD stays below this region and the descending trendline remains intact, rebounds are likely to attract sellers. If bearish pressure returns, the 4,235–4,250 area becomes the next important downside target. Overall, XAUUSD currently looks like a technical recovery within a broader bearish structure . I continue to favor SELL setups on rebounds into resistance with price-action confirmation , rather than trying to catch the bottom before buyers have clearly regained control.

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

USDTHB Tracks USD Direction

Yesterday Recap 16/9/26 Yesterday, USDTHB was supported by the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023, or in more than three years. The Fed continued to emphasize controlling inflation, while the U.S. economic outlook remained relatively strong. Regarding the Fed's interest-rate outlook, the Dot Plot signaled the possibility of one additional rate hike in 2026. With inflation still above the Fed's 2% target, markets will continue to closely monitor upcoming economic and inflation data. Fundamental 17/9/26 Key Events Today | Forecast | Previous US: 19:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 31.3 | 47.4 US: 19:30 Initial Jobless Claims | 207K | 206K US: 19:30 Housing Starts | 1.320M | 1.239M Today's key U.S. economic release is the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, forecast at 31.3, down from the previous 47.4, suggesting that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region could slow. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the USD. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims are forecast at 207K, up slightly from 206K, suggesting a slight softening in the labor market. Housing Starts are forecast at 1.320M, up from 1.239M. A stronger-than-expected reading could support the outlook for the U.S. economy and the USD. Overall, USDTHB is expected to remain highly volatile, with the main focus on labor-market data, manufacturing activity, USD direction, and U.S. Bond Yields. Technical Analysis — USDTHB 1H Bias: Bullish Following the Fed's 0.25% rate hike to 3.75–4.00% and its signal that another rate hike could be possible, the USD strengthened. The chart structure remains bullish. If price holds above 33.35, it could move higher to test 33.45 → 33.50. Resistance: 33.45 Support: 33.35 Target: 33.50 Cut Loss: 33.32

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

BTCUSDT: Bearish Take Control, Downward Wave!

BTCUSDT is trading around 76,230 USDT and remains within a descending channel. The current rebound lacks the strength to alter the market structure, as the price stays below the EMA34 (approx. 76,530) and EMA89 (approx. 77,200), while the pattern of lower highs persists. The 76,800–77,800 zone is a critical resistance area to watch. If BTC rallies to this region but faces rejection below the EMA cluster and the channel's upper boundary, I lean towards a scenario where the price drops to 75,000, followed by an extension toward the primary target near 74,000 USDT. Today's macroeconomic data reinforces the bearish outlook. The Fed has raised interest rates by 25 bps to the 3.75%–4.00% range, with most officials anticipating at least one more hike before year-end. Following this decision, the USD strengthened, Treasury yields rose, and US equities fell—creating an unfavorable environment for Bitcoin and risk-on assets. The bearish scenario would lose momentum if BTC breaks out of the channel and holds firmly above the 77,800–78,000 level.

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

H1 Corrective Recovery Into Bearish Resistance

XAUUSD is trading around 4,310 after rebounding from the 4,254 previous-support target. The reaction confirms that buyers are defending the lower H1 structure, but the broader market remains bearish beneath the descending trendline. The macro backdrop remains difficult for gold after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years. The Fed also signaled that further tightening remains possible, with 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one additional 25 bp increase this year. The dollar index climbed to a five-week high after the decision. Gold initially traded above 4,365 before falling more than 1% after the Fed announcement, reflecting renewed pressure from higher rates and a stronger dollar. Technical View The H1 structure remains inside a descending channel, with lower highs still controlling the broader direction. However, price has reacted strongly from the lower liquidity area and is now holding the 4,280–4,310 Pullback Zone. As long as this zone holds, a corrective recovery toward the descending trendline remains possible. The first recovery objective sits around 4,340–4,360. Above that, the key decision area is the 4,375–4,400 Order Block, where bearish structure and dynamic resistance align. If buyers establish acceptance above that OB, price could extend toward the 4,425–4,445 Resistance Zone. Key Zones Current Price: 4,309.920 Pullback / Support Zone: 4,280–4,310 First Recovery Area: 4,340–4,360 Order Block / Main Decision: 4,375–4,400 Resistance Zone: 4,425–4,445 Major Resistance: 4,470–4,490 Structural Support: 4,235–4,255 Trading Plan Buy Priority: 4,280–4,310 Condition: wait for price to hold the pullback zone and show bullish rejection, liquidity reclaim, higher-low formation or bullish MSS confirmation. TP1: 4,340–4,360 TP2: 4,375–4,400 TP3: 4,425–4,445 Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance below 4,255. Buy/Sell View This remains a corrective long inside a broader bearish H1 structure, not confirmation of a full trend reversal. The stronger bearish reaction area remains 4,375–4,400. If price reaches this zone and sellers regain control, the recovery should be reassessed rather than automatically expecting continuation higher. Final View Gold has reacted from lower structural support, but the Fed’s hawkish rate hike keeps the broader macro environment defensive. The main scenario is a confirmed recovery from 4,280–4,310 toward 4,375–4,400. That Order Block will determine whether the rebound can expand toward 4,425–4,445 or whether sellers regain control. Can buyers hold the pullback zone and complete the H1 recovery into the bearish Order Block?

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

GOLD — THE FED GAVE US THE MOVE… NOW WHAT?

We've been sitting in consolidation for most of the week waiting for the Fed. Well... we finally got the catalyst. The Fed raised rates by 25bps today, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, while also signaling that inflation remains elevated and that additional tightening could still be on the table. And Gold initially reacted exactly how you'd expect. Straight down. But here's where I'm getting interested. That selloff pushed price directly into the area I've been waiting for. The H4 FVG was largely filled, and price also swept the lows. Now I'm watching to see what happens after the liquidity grab. Because at this point, I don't necessarily want to chase the downside. I want to see if sellers can actually hold the lower prices. 🔵 THE BULLISH IDEA The level I'm watching now is the Previous Weekly Low around 4,339.7. Price is currently below it. So I'm not calling a long simply because we swept the lows. I want to see price reclaim that level. If we push back above the Previous Weekly Low, then I want to see whether we can retest it from above and hold. Something like: Sweep the lows → FVG fill → buyers step in → reclaim PWL → successful retest → continuation. THAT is the setup I'm interested in. If that happens, the Fed reaction could end up being the liquidity event that gave buyers the opportunity to step back in. 🔴 BUT I'M NOT GOING TO FORCE THE BULLISH STORY This is the part that's important. The Fed just delivered a hawkish catalyst, and the initial reaction was bearish for Gold. So if price cannot reclaim the Previous Weekly Low, I'm not going to sit here saying: "Well... they swept the lows, so it has to go up." Nope. If sellers continue accepting price below that level, then the sweep wasn't necessarily a reversal. It may simply have been the beginning of another leg lower. And that's when I'm looking for the next area where Gold may want to react. 📊 WHAT I'M WATCHING IN ORDER FLOW This is where the DOM/order flow becomes important for me. I want to see whether the aggressive selling we're getting after the Fed actually produces continued downside acceptance. If sellers keep hitting the market but price stops making meaningful progress lower... That's interesting. If buyers begin absorbing that selling... Even more interesting. Then we reclaim the Previous Weekly Low? Now we've got something I can actually work with. I'm not trying to predict the reversal. I'm waiting for the market to prove it. 🎯 MY PLAN Bullish scenario: 🔹 H4 FVG gets filled 🔹 Lows get swept 🔹 Selling pressure begins to dry up 🔹 Buyers take control 🔹 Price reclaims ~4,339.7 🔹 Retest holds 🔹 Look for continuation higher Bearish scenario: 🔻 Price remains below the Previous Weekly Low 🔻 Sellers continue accepting lower prices 🔻 Reclaim attempt fails 🔻 No reason for me to force a long 🔻 Wait for the next major level/FVG The key for me is 4,339.7. I don't need to catch the exact bottom. I'd rather miss the first 30–50 points and get confirmation that buyers have actually taken control than try to call the bottom and get run over if sellers aren't finished. The news created the volatility. Now I'm watching price tell me what that volatility actually means. Let it show its hand. #Gold #MGC #GC #GoldFutures #FuturesTrading #OrderFlow #PriceAction #VolumeProfile #MarketStructure #TradingView #DayTrading #Futures #COMEX #GoldTrading

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

ETH Ignored Two Confirmed Bearish Catalysts. That's the Signal.

Two of the most bearish catalysts crypto could've been handed in one week landed within days of each other. The Clarity Act failed to pass. The Fed hiked 25bps instead of cutting. Either headline alone should have sent ETH through its range lows. It didn't happen. ETH ran a clean ABC correction straight into the news. Wave C dropped into the exact same zone that's held for days. Instead of breaking down on two confirmed bearish catalysts, price compressed at the lows, volume drying up candle by candle, then printed a Change of Character straight back through the range, reclaiming 2,421 without ever tagging a lower low. That's not indifference to bad news. That's exhaustion. Whoever was going to sell on Clarity failing or a hike landing already sold on the move down into C. By the time the headlines hit, there was nobody left on that side to press it lower. Under CAP, a CHoCH at range lows immediately following confirmed bearish catalysts, with no lower low made, is one of the highest conviction reversal signatures the framework tracks. The reaction to the news mattered more than the news itself. The fear was never in the headline. It was in the room that had already emptied out before the headline arrived.

TITradingView Ideas17 Sept

StanChart Sees Higher Oil Floor as Hormuz Crisis Spreads to Saudi Export Routes

Oil prices pulled back but remained elevated ahead of a critical Fed decision on Wednesday, with market expectations shifting towards a prolonged US-Iran conflict. Brent crude for November delivery fell 2.88% at 2:18 p.m. ET, to trade at $105.6 per barrel, while WTI crude for October delivery declined 3.33% to change hands at $102.3/bbl. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first rate hike since 2023, as policymakers responded to renewed inflationary pressure. Fed officials…

OilPrice.comOilPrice.comAlex Kimani17 Sept

Why a Failed Senate Vote Wiped Out $500M in Crypto

A single failed Senate vote this week wiped nearly 4% of the entire crypto market's value , and over 500 million dollars in forced liquidations across the market in the hours that followed. Bitcoin fell. Ethereum fell. Chainlink, Aave, Bitcoin Cash, Aptos, Ethena- every major name fell, most of them with no company-specific news of their own at all. This wasn't a hack, scandal, or technical failure - this was a legislative procedure vote that didn't pass. This article goes over exactly what happened, why leverage turns a political disappointment into a violent marketwide selloff , and why some coins fell far harder than others during the event. What actually happened The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act , a bill meant to set clearer regulatory rules for the crypto industry here in the US. Crypto markets had priced in progress toward this legislation, since regulatory clarity has been one of the biggest overhangs preventing broader institutional adoption for years. When the vote failed to advance the bill forward, that progress did not materialize, and the market reacted quickly. At the same time, rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike were already weighing on risk assets across the board. These two things - a disappointing regulatory outcome and rising expectations of tighter monetary policy - came together to form a single, sharp, risk-off move for the entire crypto market simultaneously. Why a bill not passing crashes coins that have nothing to do with the bill It's easy to confuse new traders as to why this happened. Chainlink, Aave, and Bitcoin Cash have entirely different use cases, teams, and fundamentals. None of them are directly regulated or affected by this specific legislation any more than any other token, but they all fell together, and several fell by more than Bitcoin did. This happens because crypto assets become highly correlated during a risk-off event . During such a move, traders and funds don't sell their disappointing bet and keep holding everything else in their portfolios steady. They reduce risk broadly across their entire portfolio , because the source of the fear - a regulatory uncertainty or a macro tightening expectation - applies to the asset class itself, and not to any coin's specific fundamentals. https://www.tradingview.com/x/bbQAXcS8/ Why leverage turns a dip into a $500 million cascade This is where the real damage multiplies. A large amount of crypto trading happens through leverage - that is, traders borrowing money to control a position bigger than their capital in order to magnify their gains. This works well while their prices march higher, but as soon as their prices start to fall by even a modest amount, the exchanges forcibly close, or liquidate, these leveraged positions to prevent the trader's losses from going beyond what they actually put up. As prices began to fall from the failed vote, leveraged long positions across many coins hit their liquidation thresholds. Exchanges automatically sold those positions into a falling market, which further pushed prices down, and then triggered the next layer of liquidations at a slightly lower price, and so on. This is how a single piece of news, one that might have caused a modest orderly pullback on its own, ended up resulting in over 500 million dollars of forced selling within a matter of hours , none of it a voluntary action by the traders involved. Why some coins fell so much harder than others Looking at the actual figures during the event, Aave fell over 6% , Aptos fell nearly 8% , Bittensor fell nearly 8% , and Bitcoin - the largest, most stable crypto asset - fell by a noticeably smaller percentage. This is because of something called beta , a measure of how much an asset tends to move compared to the broader market during a given event. Smaller, more speculative altcoins tend to carry higher beta than Bitcoin - that is, they tend to magnify any move the broader crypto market makes, in both directions. During a risk-off event like this, this higher beta works against the holders of these tokens, turning a moderate market-wide decline into a much sharper drop for these specific tokens. One analysis of Ethena's drop during this particular event specifically noted that the higher beta that Ethena typically has amplified what was a broad, macro-driven move, not something specific to the project. https://www.tradingview.com/x/D09OBE0t/ The bigger pattern worth understanding This is a signature you'll see repeatedly in crypto. A macro/regulatory headline hits . Broad, correlated selling begins across the entire asset class. Leveraged positions get forcibly closed , accelerating the initial move far beyond what the news itself would justify. Higher beta, more speculative tokens fall hardest , and larger, more established assets fall by comparison less, even though everything falls together. Recognizing this signature is important because it tells you that a sharp, broad selloff like this one isn't necessarily a judgment on any given individual project's fundamentals. It's often a mechanically-driven reaction to a single piece of news that happens to have occurred at a time when a large amount of leverage was sitting in the market. How to actually think about this as a trader Check if a crypto selloff is broad-based across unrelated tokens or concentrated in one coin, because a broad, correlated move implies a macro/regulatory trigger amplified by leverage, and not project-specific bad news. Pay attention to overall market leverage levels - sometimes visible around open interest and funding rates - because elevated leverage leading up to a known event can increase the odds that a disappointing outcome gets amplified into a much larger cascade than the news alone would justify. Remember that higher-beta altcoins will almost always move more than Bitcoin during both broad rallies and selloffs, so if you're holding small altcoins through a known event risk, you are essentially accepting amplified moves in both directions. Watch for the immediate aftermath of a liquidation cascade rather than only the initial drop, because these events can cause sharp, temporary overshoots to the downside as forced selling clears out, followed by a partial recovery once the leveraged positions causing the extra selling pressure have already been liquidated. My Conclusion A failed vote in Washington wiped out half a billion dollars in crypto positions within hours , and most of the coins' falls in the selloff had absolutely nothing to do with the bill itself. This is the nature of a leveraged, highly correlated market - a single piece of disappointing news doesn't just move the asset it's actually about, but it can cause a mechanical cascade across an entire asset class , hitting hardest wherever the most leverage and highest beta happen to be. Thank you @VertexQore

TITradingView Ideas16 Sept