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  1. 17 September
  2. Latest17 Sept, 16:31

    Bullish continuation setup?

    CAD/CHF is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.58738 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 0.5838 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 0.59155 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.

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  3. Follow-up17 Sept, 15:19

    transmission of monetary policy

    The Fed Hiked. So Why Didn't Gold Stay Down? The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, as the chart shows. Gold initially sold off sharply as higher rates, a stronger dollar and higher yields weighed on the non-yielding metal. But the pressure did not last. The key reason: the markets that transmit the Fed's policy signal into gold began moving the other way. The rate hike itself was largely anticipated Because an August inflation report came in hot at 3.4% and energy costs have been surging due to the U.S.-Iran war, investors and traders had already priced in a 90%+ probability of this hike. As a result, the execution didn't shock Wall Street, and major stock indexes initially held relatively flat before pulling back slightly due to the Fed's ongoing hawkish tone, so the announcement did not create a completely new shock to expectations. The more important question became what happened to the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields and inflation expectations afterward. By September 17, the dollar had weakened from its post-Fed high and the 10-year Treasury yield had fallen. At the same time, oil prices declined, reducing some of the immediate inflation pressure that had supported higher yields. Gold subsequently rebounded more than 2% from its post-Fed low. This is why the initial selloff failed to sustain: Fed hike → dollar/yields rise → gold sells off then: dollar/yields retreat + oil falls → pressure on gold eases → gold recovers. The Fed therefore did not become irrelevant to gold. The market simply stopped reinforcing the initial bearish transmission. A rate hike alone is not a complete gold thesis. Watch the U.S. dollar and real Treasury yields alongside the Fed decision. If they continue rising, the rate-hike pressure on gold can persist. If they reverse, gold can recover even with the Fed maintaining a tighter policy stance. The headline was the catalyst. The cross-market reaction determined whether the move lasted.

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  4. Follow-up17 Sept, 15:18

    USDJPY – Waiting for the Bank of Japan!

    Given the magnitude and importance of the central bank events taking place this week, FX traders could be forgiven for struggling to sleep at night as they process the possible permutations of what key interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), alongside any comments provided by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on inflation, rising bond yields and future rate moves could mean for the direction of USDJPY into the Friday close. After a sharp sell off from 160 at the end of August down to a low of 152.89 (September 8th), perhaps unsurprisingly, USDJPY prices squeezed back above 155.00 again yesterday as traders squared weak shorts ahead of last night’s Fed decision. Then on hearing the US central bank had decided to hike interest rates 25 bps (0.25%) for the first time in 2026 and indicated they could be prepared to move again before the end of the year, USDJPY prices squeezed all the way up to a high of 156.42 before drifting back to trade at current levels around 155.95 (0630 BST). Now, looking forward, traders have that nervous 24 hour wait to hear the outcome of tomorrow’s BoJ rate meeting (0400 BST). Expectations are for the BoJ to raise rates again, but after last night’s update from the Fed, traders may be looking for something extra from Governor Ueda to reignite the recent USDJPY downtrend or risk a nasty squeeze back up to test higher resistance levels. Technical Update: USDJPY – Normal Pullback or More Sustained Rally? In our USDJPY update on September 7th, we highlighted the formation of a potential Head and Shoulders top, with closing breaks below the neckline support possibly leading to further price weakness (see our commentary timeline for full details). https://www.tradingview.com/x/U99HyXAU/ As can be seen in the daily chart above, subsequent price action has seen the neckline support broken to the downside on a closing basis, and while not a guarantee of extended weakness, this move suggests the potential for a negative shift in USDJPY sentiment. However, as also shown in the chart, price action this week has seen a recovery develop, bringing USDJPY back above the neckline of the reversal. It’s common in technical analysis to see a rally or pullback after completion of a Head and Shoulders top, before fresh declines materialise. However, after this week’s rally, traders may be wondering if last night’s Fed announcement and subsequent price strength, could be ending the threat of the reversal pattern, or if it’s just a limited rally within a developing downtrend, before fresh price weakness is seen again. Ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Japan rate decision, reassessing the technical backdrop and identifying some key support and resistance levels to monitor may prove useful in establishing the next directional themes for USDJPY. If this is a Normal Limited Pullback to the Reversal: If the latest price strength is to prove a normal pullback to the Head and Shoulders top before fresh price declines are seen, USDJPY upside may be limited, shifting focus to lower support levels. The first key support to focus on may be 154.66 (half of the latest recovery). Closing breaks below this level could suggest the latest price strength is a limited move higher, before fresh USDJPY price weakness and tests of longer‑term support levels are seen again. https://www.tradingview.com/x/qFh75n7f/ As the weekly chart above indicates, closes below 154.66 could lead to further downside momentum, opening potential to test 152.89 (September monthly low), then 151.96 (50% retracement of April 2025 to July 2026 strength), and possibly even 149.12 (61.8% retracement). If a More Extended Price Recovery is to Develop: It is equally possible following last night’s Fed announcement that a more extended USDJPY recovery could materialise. If this is the case, current price strength could challenge the first potential resistance level at 156.62 (50% retracement of September weakness). https://www.tradingview.com/x/c5MLMTUu/ Closing breaks above 156.62 could question the validity of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and indicate risks of moves toward higher resistance levels. This could open the way for tests of 157.50 (61.8% retracement) and, if closing breaks above this level are seen, on toward 160.39 (September 2nd high). The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

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  5. Follow-up17 Sept, 14:09

    Gold 1D: six months of gaps nobody came back for

    Four areas above this chart have been sitting untouched since March. Gold has not traded into any of them in six months. This is gold on the daily with our imbalance layer on it. It marks the areas price left behind when it moved too fast for both sides to be there, and leaves them on the chart until the market comes back for them. A zone stretches to the right for as long as it goes untouched, so its width is its age. What February and March left. The decline off the February high was fast enough to leave four gaps behind it, stacked between roughly 4,860 and 5,260. None of them has been revisited. Six months, four areas, and the market has done nothing about any of them. The nearest sits about eleven percent above where gold closed today. What has been filled. The grey bands are the gaps price did come back for, and they are the more useful half of this chart, because you can read how long each one waited. The band near 4,620 stayed open from February until August. The one around 4,390 stayed open until this month. They are still drawn, because we do not delete the ones that resolve - a record you can only see when it flatters the tool is not a record. What August left. The move off the July lows produced one gap on the way up, between roughly 4,150 and 4,210, and it is six weeks old and untouched. So the picture is lopsided in a way worth noticing: the market has cleaned out the middle of this range and left both edges alone. One unfilled area sits under four percent below today's close. The nearest one above is eleven percent up. Where price is now. Gold spent September giving back most of the August advance. Today it opened at 4,260, traded down to 4,257 and closed at 4,368, near the day's high, inside the band where most of the filled zones sit. What this does not tell you. Which of the open areas matters, or whether either gets traded into at all. An unfilled gap is not a target and this layer does not treat it as one. It marks where the market left something behind, and stops there. One caveat, always. This is a chart where the zones are legible and the history is long, which makes it a clean illustration of how they get recorded - not evidence that gaps get filled. Plenty never are. Four of them are on this chart. Educational market commentary - not financial advice.

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  6. Follow-up17 Sept, 13:31

    The Fed Raised Rates, Yet Gold Is Still Rising!

    The gold market has once again surprised investors. After the Fed raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 , gold did not continue falling. Instead, it reversed higher. On September 17, XAUUSD gained around 1.6% and rose toward $4,330 per ounce , even though prices had fallen to approximately six-week lows just the day before. At first glance, this reaction may seem illogical: higher interest rates usually strengthen the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal. But this time, the market reacted differently — and that is the key to understanding the current move. Why Is Gold Rising Despite Higher Rates? The rate hike had already been priced in . The Fed’s decision itself did not come as a surprise to the market. Therefore, after the announcement, some market participants began closing their previous short positions in gold. Investors are focused not on the hike itself, but on what comes next . The Fed has indeed maintained a hawkish tone and left the door open to another rate hike before the end of the year. However, the market has already started assessing how far the regulator can actually go if the economy begins to slow down. The oil rally has paused . Reduced pressure from oil prices has somewhat eased concerns about another wave of inflation. This is important for gold because it lowers the risk of even more aggressive Fed tightening. Demand for safe-haven assets remains strong . Despite the rate hike, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and overall nervousness in global markets have not disappeared. This continues to support interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. For the market, it is now important not only to consider the current interest-rate level, but also how quickly the Fed can continue tightening without causing serious damage to the economy and stock market. This is why gold has an opportunity to recover: investors have seen that a hawkish Fed decision does not necessarily mean an automatic continuation of the XAUUSD sell-off. According to FreshForex analysts, the current gold recovery shows that the market is still willing to buy XAUUSD dips when signs of stabilization emerge . If prices hold above the $4,300 area, buyers may attempt to extend the move toward $4,400–4,500 .

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  7. Follow-up17 Sept, 12:21

    Gold / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD)

    🟡 Gold / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) Could a Breakout from This Compression Define Gold’s Next Medium-Term Move? 📊🔥 Hello everyone and welcome back to all my TradingView followers! 👋📈 I hope you are all doing well and trading with patience, discipline and proper risk management. Today, we are looking at Gold versus the U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD), a market currently influenced by a combination of global uncertainty, USD strength, U.S. interest rates, Treasury yields and geopolitical risks. 🌍⚠️ 🌍 Fundamental View | Higher Rates, Stronger USD and Pressure on Gold 💵📈 Global markets remain highly volatile. On one side, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty continue to support demand for safe-haven assets. On the other side, the latest increase in U.S. interest rates and higher Treasury yields can create pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold. The Federal Reserve recently raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. The possibility of further restrictive policy has supported the U.S. dollar and increased the opportunity cost of holding gold. Reuters +1 The potential short-term mechanism is: Hawkish Fed → Stronger USD → Higher Bond Yields → Higher Opportunity Cost → Pressure on Gold 📉 However, gold is not driven by interest rates alone. Other important factors include: 🔹 Geopolitical tensions 🔹 Safe-haven demand 🔹 Central-bank purchases 🔹 Investment flows 🔹 Recession concerns 🔹 Sovereign debt and fiscal risks Therefore, the reaction to higher rates is not always one-directional. Still, in the short term, a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields may remain important headwinds for gold. ⚠️ 📊 Technical Analysis | XAUUSD On the provided chart, gold has entered a compressed consolidation structure after a previous bearish move. This short-term compression is developing inside a broader 4H structure, and price is now approaching important technical decision zones. 👀 🔴 First Resistance Zone: 4368 – 4402 This is the key resistance area near the current price. Above this zone, the next important resistance is around: 🎯 4474 🟡 Main Support Zone: The major support area is approximately: 4260 – 4270 The smaller short-term consolidation area around 4310–4325 may also be relevant for intraday reactions. 🐂 Bullish Scenario | Confirmed Breakout for Medium-Term Longs 📈 If price breaks above the 4368–4402 resistance zone with strong momentum and confirms the breakout on the 4H timeframe, the structure could shift in favor of buyers. A more reliable bullish sequence would be: Breakout → Retest → Confirmation 🎯 After a confirmed breakout, the 4474 area could become the next important resistance and potential target. For a medium-term long setup, a temporary move above resistance may not be enough. Ideally, traders should look for: 🟢 A 4H candle close above resistance 🟢 Price acceptance above the breakout zone 🟢 A successful retest 🟢 Reduced selling pressure during the retest 🐻 Bearish Scenario | Breakdown of the Compression and Support 📉 If gold fails to break the resistance zone and selling pressure returns, the 4260–4270 support area becomes extremely important. A confirmed breakdown below this zone could indicate that the short-term bullish structure is weakening and that a deeper correction may develop. In that case, it may be more reasonable to wait for: Breakdown → Failed Retest → Continuation The bearish scenario could become stronger if the breakdown occurs alongside: 💵 A stronger U.S. dollar 📈 Higher Treasury yields 🏦 Expectations of tighter Fed policy 🌍 Increasing global risk aversion Under these conditions, fundamental and technical pressure could reinforce each other. 🧠 Final View Gold is currently approaching an important decision point. Fundamentally, higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar may create short-term pressure on gold. However, geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand can still provide support. Technically, price is trading inside a compressed structure, making the reaction to the key levels particularly important: 🔴 Break and confirmation above 4368–4402: higher potential for a move toward 4474. 🟢 Support holds around 4260–4270: further consolidation and another bullish attempt remain possible. 🐻 Confirmed support breakdown: the probability of a deeper correction increases. For now, the key is to wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown, preferably supported by 4H price action, because volatile markets can produce false breakouts. ⚠️ 🗳️ What is your view? 🤔 Where do you think gold is heading next? 🟢 Bullish: Breakout above 4368–4402 and a move toward 4474 🔴 Bearish: Breakdown below 4260–4270 and a deeper correction 🟡 Neutral: Continued compression between support and resistance Share your opinion in the comments! 👇💬 ⚠️ Disclaimer | English: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading financial markets involves substantial risk, especially when leverage is used. Always conduct your own research and apply proper risk management before making any investment decision. 🏷️ Tags #Gold #XAUUSD #GoldTrading #GoldAnalysis #PreciousMetals #USD #USDollar #FederalReserve #Fed #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondYields #Inflation #SafeHaven #Geopolitics #Forex #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #RiskManagement #Bullish #Bearish #Breakout #GoldPrice

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  8. Follow-up17 Sept, 11:29

    GOLD | Bulls Rebound From 4234 as Dollar & Yields Ease

    Gold has staged a strong recovery after reaching the 4234 support area, with buyers stepping back into the market as the fundamental environment turns more supportive in the short term. The recovery is being helped by a softer U.S. dollar, easing oil prices and lower Treasury yields following Wednesday’s Fed rate hike. However, the Fed has kept the door open to additional tightening, meaning the broader environment remains sensitive to any renewed rise in yields and the dollar. Technically Gold reached our 4234 support and reversed strongly from that area, confirming it as an important demand zone. The price is now trading with bullish momentum, with 4330 acting as the key pivot and confirmation level. A confirmed 1H candle close above 4330 would strengthen the bullish structure and support continuation toward 4363. A breakout and stability above 4363 would open the way toward the next resistance at 4390. On the downside, failure to establish stability above 4330 could keep gold consolidating between 4330 and 4296 until a confirmed breakout determines the next move. A break below 4296 would weaken the current bullish recovery and bring the lower support area back into focus. Fundamental Structure The short-term fundamental environment currently aligns with the technical recovery: Dollar (Down) + Oil (Down) + Treasury yields (Down) → Supportive for Gold But the Fed’s message remains the main medium-term risk. Additional rate hikes or another strong rebound in Treasury yields could strengthen the dollar and put renewed pressure on non-yielding gold. Therefore, 4330 is technically important while yields and the dollar remain important fundamentally. If both continue to favor gold, the recovery has room to extend. Pivot Line: 4330 Resistance: 4363 – 4390 Support: 4296 – 4276

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  9. Follow-up17 Sept, 11:07

    Gold at a Decision Point: The 200 EMA Could Define the Next Move

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/xvsf06U9/ Gold is approaching an interesting technical decision on the daily chart . A few weeks ago, price pushed through the 200 EMA and started trading above it. Since then, we’ve seen a deeper retracement through the Fibonacci structure, reaching the area around the 0.618 retracement at 4,268 before buyers stepped back in. Price has now recovered toward 4,320. And once again, one level is becoming particularly important: The 200 EMA. 🎯 One Level Could Change the Picture Instead of filling the chart with indicators, the current setup can be reduced to a relatively simple question: Can Gold establish itself back above the 200 EMA — or will price get rejected around it? That distinction could determine which side of the current Fibonacci structure becomes more relevant next. Right now, price is trading close to the 0.500 Fibonacci level around 4,344, with the 200 EMA running through essentially the same area. That creates an interesting technical confluence. 📈 Scenario 1: Gold Reclaims the 200 EMA If Gold can push through the 200 EMA and establish itself above this area, the bullish scenario becomes more interesting. The next Fibonacci areas visible on the chart are approximately: 0.382 → 4,420 0.236 → 4,517 0 → 4,677 The larger bullish scenario would therefore bring the previous high around 4,677 back into focus. But a move above the EMA alone isn’t enough. What matters is whether price can actually hold above the area rather than simply trade through it temporarily. A breakout and acceptance are two different things. 📉 Scenario 2: The 200 EMA Rejects Price The opposite scenario is just as important. If Gold fails to reclaim the EMA and sellers regain control, the recent recovery could turn into another rejection. In that case, the lower Fibonacci areas become relevant again: 0.618 → 4,268 0.786 → 4,164 And if the broader structure deteriorates further, the Fibonacci 1 level around 4,034 represents the deeper downside area shown on the chart. Again, these aren’t predictions. They are simply the levels that become relevant if the corresponding scenario develops. 🧠 The EMA Is the Decision Zone This is why the current chart doesn’t need much more. We already have the Fibonacci structure. We already saw price react around the 0.618 area. And now price has returned toward the 200 EMA. Instead of trying to predict every candle, the cleaner approach is to watch how Gold behaves around this level. Above and holding → the upper Fibonacci structure becomes more interesting. Rejection → attention shifts back toward the lower levels. Simple. 🔔 You Don’t Need to Watch the Chart All Day There’s another practical side to levels like the 200 EMA. If a specific technical level is important to your analysis, there is little reason to sit in front of the chart waiting for price to reach or cross it. We use dedicated indicators that can generate EMA 200 alerts when relevant crossings occur, allowing the chart to come to you instead. These tools, including our own custom indicators, are provided to our course members at no additional cost. The purpose isn’t to replace analysis or generate automatic trading decisions. An alert simply tells you when it’s time to look at the chart again. That can make a structured trading process considerably more efficient. 📊 Don’t Predict the Break — Prepare for It Gold doesn’t have to break higher. It doesn’t have to fall toward 4,034 either. Right now, neither outcome is confirmed. What we do have is a clearly identifiable technical area that can help structure the next decision. 200 EMA reclaimed and held? Watch the upper Fibonacci levels. 200 EMA rejection? Watch how price behaves toward the lower structure. You don’t need to know the outcome beforehand. You need to know what you’re looking for when it happens. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Fibonacci levels, moving averages and technical indicators do not guarantee future price movements. Always conduct your own analysis and manage risk accordingly.

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  10. Follow-up17 Sept, 10:47

    Gold Rises Again as Selling Pressure Eases

    📊 Market Overview: XAU/USD is currently trading around 4,310–4,320 USD, after rebounding strongly from a low near 4,235 USD in the previous session. On September 17, gold reached around 4,318 USD, while Reuters reported that gold gained more than 1%, supported by a weaker USD and easing oil prices. After the Fed raised interest rates and signaled that further tightening could remain possible, gold continues to face pressure from U.S. yields and expectations for higher interest rates. However, the USD's pullback from a 7-week high, along with lower oil prices, is supporting gold's short-term recovery. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance: 4,315–4,325 / 4,345–4,360 USD • Nearest Support: 4,285–4,295 / 4,255–4,270 USD • EMA: Price is attempting to reclaim the EMA 09 after the strong rebound from 4,235. However, the short-term structure has not fully turned bullish yet, as the medium-term moving averages remain above price. A TradingView-based analysis also identifies 4,316 as an important confirmation level; a clear break above this area could open the way toward 4,347. • Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: The sharp decline toward 4,235–4,260 created a long lower wick, followed by strong dip-buying that pushed gold back above 4,300. RSI is currently around the neutral 48–50 zone, indicating that selling pressure has eased, but buyers have not yet gained full control. 📌 Outlook: Gold could continue its short-term recovery if it holds above 4,285–4,295 and decisively breaks above 4,315–4,325. In that case, the next target could be 4,345–4,360. Conversely, if gold is rejected below 4,315–4,325 and breaks below 4,285, selling pressure could return toward 4,255–4,270. The broader structure still requires caution as the Fed maintains a relatively hawkish stance. 💡 Proposed Trading Strategy: 🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: 4,320–4,325 🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips ❌ SL: 4,328 🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 4,285–4,295 🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips ❌ SL: 4,278

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  11. Follow-up17 Sept, 10:40

    Gold 1H: Liquidity Sweep Below Zone Buy Signals Reversal

    Gold just delivered one of the cleanest SMC signals there is — a liquidity sweep — and it's worth breaking down for anyone learning to spot these setups. After rejecting from a Demand Zone near 4,440–4,460, gold declined through several CHoCH shifts, with small EQH/EQL liquidity pockets forming along the way, eventually reaching the Zone Buy around 4,258–4,289. Price bounced from there and ran up to Target 1 near 4,400 — a solid recovery. But that bounce didn't hold. Gold reversed sharply, dropping back down through the fib retracement levels (0.5, 0.618, 0.786) and this time didn't stop at the Zone Buy — it pushed straight through it, wicking down into a pool of resting orders marked clearly on the chart as Liquidity, near 4,242 (below the 1.0 fib). This is exactly what a liquidity sweep looks like: price dips below an obvious support level — where stop-losses and pending sell orders tend to cluster — grabs that liquidity, and then snaps back just as quickly. Right after the sweep, gold printed a CHoCH near 4,320, confirming the momentum had flipped back to the upside. Since then, price has recovered nicely, now trading around 4,318 and working back up through the 0.382–0.5 fib zone. If this reversal holds, the next logical step is a retest of Target 1 near 4,400, and if that clears, a further push back toward the old Demand Zone (4,440–4,460) and possibly the Strong High near 4,510. The invalidation here is straightforward: if gold breaks back below the Liquidity zone near 4,242, this reversal thesis fails and deeper downside becomes the priority. For beginners: liquidity sweeps are a core SMC concept — smart money often needs to "grab" liquidity below a support level before it can push the market meaningfully higher. 💬 Do you think this liquidity sweep marks the real bottom, or does gold need to retest that low again before pushing higher?

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  12. Follow-up17 Sept, 10:01

    Gold Analysis | 15M Rising Channel, Resistance Test & Support Ma

    Gold has developed a multi-stage structure on the 15-minute chart. The earlier price action moved inside a rising channel and reached the 4,350–4,370 region. A sharp decline then followed, taking price toward the 4,230 area. From that low, Gold formed a second rising channel with a series of higher lows. The recovery brought price back toward 4,320–4,330, where the market is currently showing some short-term hesitation. 1. Current Structure Current price: 4,309.120 Immediate reference area: 4,320–4,330 Above this region, the chart marks: 4,350 → 4,360 → 4,380 These are the main upside reference levels shown by the current structure. 2. Possible Recovery Path If price continues to hold the rising structure and moves through the nearby resistance areas, the chart projection shows: 4,309 → 4,330 → 4,350 → 4,360 → 4,380 The 4,380 area is the highest major level shown in the current projection. 3. Correction Scenario The chart also shows a possible reaction from the upper area. In that case, the projected path points toward: 4,380 → 4,260 After reaching the 4,260 region, the chart shows a possible bounce toward approximately: 4,310 A renewed decline could then bring attention to: 4,235 → 4,200 → 4,160 Important Support Map 4,280 — Short-term support 4,260 — Important reaction area 4,230–4,235 — Major chart support 4,200 — Lower reference 4,160 — Deeper reference Complete Chart Roadmap: 4,309 ⬆ 4,330 ⬆ 4,350 ⬆ 4,360 ⬆ 4,380 Possible correction: ⬇ 4,260 ⬆ 4,310 ⬇ 4,235 ⬇ 4,200 ⬇ 4,160 Main Observation: The chart is currently positioned between the 4,230 support area and the 4,350–4,380 resistance region. The reaction around these levels will be important for understanding the next short-term structure.

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  13. Follow-up17 Sept, 09:16

    Gold (XAUUSD) 1H – Decision Zone at 4305–4335 | Waiting

    📊 FXGoldVision Daily Market Outlook — September 17, 2026 🟡 Market Status: WAITING Market Phase: Decision Zone / Corrective Recovery Bias: Neutral until H1 confirmation; higher-timeframe pressure remains bearish. Gold is trading inside the 4305–4335 decision zone. H1 momentum has recovered, but H4/D1 structure remains constrained by substantial overhead resistance. The market therefore requires confirmation rather than prediction. Key Zones Major Resistance: 4345–4360 Immediate Resistance: 4320–4335 Decision Zone: 4305–4335 Immediate Support: 4305–4310 Major Support: 4255–4280 ⭐ FXGV A-SETUP — Higher Quality 🔴 SELL BELOW 4305 (H1 Close) A completed bearish H1 close below 4305, supported by M15 deterioration and follow-through/retest, would favour continuation lower. 🎯 TP1: 4280 🎯 TP2: 4260 🎯 TP3: 4230 Invalidation: H1 reclaims 4335. ↩ FXGV B-SETUP — Alternative 🟢 BUY ABOVE 4335 (H1 Close) A completed H1 close above 4335 with M15 acceptance would strengthen the corrective bullish continuation case. 🎯 TP1: 4345 🎯 TP2: 4360 🎯 TP3: 4375 Invalidation: H1 closes back below 4305. ⚠ RISK Higher timeframes and lower timeframes remain conflicted. DXY is structurally strong, while Gold's H1 recovery is approaching significant H4 resistance. Post-FOMC positioning and today's USD-sensitive economic releases also increase false-breakout and liquidity-sweep risk. Technical levels remain valid, but confirmation is more important than usual. ⏳ Wait. Confirm. Execute. No confirmation = No trade. Educational Analysis Only.

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  14. Follow-up17 Sept, 09:08

    Gold Completes 5-Wave Move With A Liquidity Twist At Wave 4

    Every so often, a chart tells a complete story from start to finish — and this one has a nice plot twist right in the middle. On the 1H XAUUSD chart, gold built out a textbook 5-wave impulsive structure from the Zone Buy near 4,254–4,264. Waves (1) through (3) developed cleanly, respecting the Fibonacci retracement levels along the way. But wave (4) is where things got interesting: instead of a simple pullback, price plunged sharply, sweeping liquidity below 4,234 — grabbing stop-losses and pending orders in a classic Smart Money Concepts move before snapping back just as fast. That kind of violent wick-and-reverse at wave (4) is often a signal that institutional players were shaking out weak positions before continuing the intended move — and that's exactly what followed. Price rocketed back up through a freshly formed FVG zone, completing wave (5) with a push into the Zone Sell near 4,360–4,370. Currently trading at 4,313.765, gold has pulled back from that wave (5) high and is now consolidating just above the FVG support that fueled the final leg up. This pause looks like digestion rather than reversal — the market catching its breath after a clean, complete structure. The projected path from here suggests a stepped bounce is likely, with price potentially working through a shallow pullback before pushing further toward the PREMIUM ZONE above 4,390 — new territory beyond the recent Zone Sell rejection. The key level to watch is the FVG/wave (4) zone near 4,300. Holding above this keeps the bullish structure intact, while a break below would suggest the completed wave count needs a deeper correction first. For now, the 5-wave story checked every box — the next chapter is whether gold can build on it. Do you think gold pushes straight toward the Premium Zone, or does it need one more dip before the next leg up?

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  15. Follow-up17 Sept, 08:57

    XAUUSD & Zanzibar

    Hi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader. I've been studying Gold since 2019. My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups. I need your support. Please leave a like and follow my profile. It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work. Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan. Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you. 🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞 Hey guys, I’m currently on vacation in Zanzibar. If any of you are around, feel free to reach out! I’ll be back on October 1st. In the meantime, I’ll still be sharing my Gold analysis with you every morning. We’re currently post-FOMC, with a rate hike. From an inflation and yields perspective, this isn’t the most favorable environment for Gold. For now, I’ll be looking to navigate the market around these key daily levels. Since I’m away and have limited internet connection, I’ll mainly be using pending swing orders until I’m back. From October 1st, we’ll get back to our usual routine with the full analysis and regular updates. Good trading everyone! 📈 Good trading everyone! 👊 Let’sgosky 🚀 Peace ✌️ 🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates! 📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help. 🔍 Reminder 🔍 I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions. My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET. In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day. HAPPY TRADING MANAGE YOUR RISK BE PATIENT

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  16. Follow-up17 Sept, 08:26

    Gold H4: 4,250 Sweep or 4,100 Next?

    FOMC is over. Now the real liquidity test begins. Gold remains trapped inside a broader H4 bearish structure after rejecting from the 4,680 area and continuing to print lower highs beneath the descending trendline. But after the post-FOMC volatility, price is now reacting directly above a major H4 demand zone. 📊 H4 Market Structure Current: 4,283.100 Trendline Resistance: 4,340–4,360 H4 Demand / SSL: 4,235–4,250 Lower H4 Demand: 4,095–4,120 The structure remains bearish below the descending trendline. But selling directly into 4,235–4,250 offers poor structural confirmation. 🔴 Bearish Scenario If H4 closes below 4,235–4,250 with displacement: 4,250 → 4,200 → 4,120–4,095 That would confirm continuation of the broader bearish structure. 🟢 Reversal Scenario If Gold sweeps 4,235–4,250 and quickly reclaims 4,300 with a lower-timeframe MSS: 4,250 → 4,300 → 4,340–4,360 A sustained H4 reclaim above the descending trendline would weaken the current bearish structure. 🌍 Post-FOMC Context The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, while its projections kept further tightening risk on the table. Gold initially sold off toward the 4,240 area, then recovered as markets digested the decision and oil's rally lost momentum. The next move may depend less on the headline rate decision and more on which liquidity pool gets taken first. Does 4,250 become the post-FOMC floor — or the next breakdown trigger?

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  17. Follow-up17 Sept, 08:26

    Gold: Buyers Face a Key Test After the Correction

    Gold has experienced a significant retracement from the 4,690+ region after failing to sustain the previous upside move. Price has now returned toward the 4,285–4,320 support area, where recent price action has shown signs of buying interest. The first major resistance sits around 4,360–4,400, with 4,430–4,470 forming the next important area above. A sustained recovery through 4,400 would begin to improve the short-term structure, while a break below current support could bring 4,220–4,260 into focus. The 4H structure remains corrective, so confirmation around the current support and resistance boundaries remains important. We would like to see whether buyers can reclaim the first resistance area or whether sellers continue to pressure the lower support structure. Key Levels Support: 4,285–4,320 Major Support: 4,220–4,260 Resistance: 4,360–4,400 Major Resistance: 4,430–4,470 This Article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It does not consider the financial situation, needs, or objectives of any specific individual. Any reference to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Risk Warning: 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please refer to our full risk disclaimer on our website.

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  18. Follow-up17 Sept, 07:13

    XAUUSD — Post-Fed FVG Repricing Buy Setup

    Gold is trading around $4,320 after a highly volatile post-FOMC session. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% and signaled that additional tightening may still be needed, pushing the U.S. dollar to a seven-week high and lifting short-term Treasury yields. Despite that hawkish backdrop, Gold recovered more than 1% from the post-Fed low as traders reassessed positioning and oil prices eased from recent highs. Brent crude has also pulled back toward $104, reducing some of the immediate energy-driven inflation pressure, although broader Middle East risks remain elevated. SMC View H1 price remains inside the broader descending channel, so the higher-timeframe structure is not fully bullish yet. However, the latest move swept buy-side liquidity near $4,350–$4,360, delivered a strong bearish displacement, and then reacted sharply from the lower portion of the channel. The current rebound may represent bullish repricing after that liquidity event. The nearby FVG around $4,285–$4,305 is the key mitigation area to watch. A controlled pullback into this imbalance, followed by a bullish MSS or CHOCH, could confirm that buyers are rebuilding short-term order flow toward the upper liquidity zones. Main Trading Scenario Buy Priority: $4,285–$4,305 Condition: Wait for Gold to retrace into the FVG / discount area and form bullish rejection, followed by a lower-timeframe bullish MSS or CHOCH. Entry: $4,285–$4,305 after confirmation SL: Below $4,260 and the reaction low TP1: $4,345–$4,365 TP2: $4,390–$4,405 Key Zones to Watch $4,401.403 — Premium Bearish OB $4,345–$4,365 — Reclaimed buy-side liquidity / resistance $4,285–$4,305 — Main FVG buy zone $4,225–$4,245 — External SSL / Deep Discount Demand $4,260 — Immediate bullish invalidation area Descending channel resistance — Major structural barrier Prime Gold View The buy bias is focused on confirmed repricing from the FVG, not chasing the current recovery. If buyers defend $4,285–$4,305 and produce a clean bullish structure shift, Gold could rotate back toward $4,350–$4,365, with the $4,400 Premium Bearish OB becoming the larger upside objective. The broader channel remains bearish, so confirmation is essential before treating the recovery as sustainable. No confirmation, no trade.

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  19. Follow-up17 Sept, 06:25

    XAUUSD Breakout Imminent: How I’m Trading This Gold Range

    XAUUSD 🌍 The macro narrative heading into this trading window is heavily dictated by central bank monetary policy updates and elevated Treasury yields, keeping the broader dollar dynamics volatile while fundamental backdrop drivers continue to test precious metals 🏦. Interestingly, general online sentiment is heavily leaning bearish following recent pullbacks, with retail consensus aggressively positioning for a deeper sell-off; this crowded environment suggests a prime opportunity for a liquidity sweep to trap early retail direction before the true market drive develops 🧹. We are witnessing a compression phase on the intraday chart where price is coiling within an ascending parallel channel and respecting clear horizontal range boundaries 📈. While retail consensus is actively trying to pick tops and bottoms based on short-term noise, our structural footprint shows clear Wyckoffian balance before potential markup or markdown, indicating that breakout traders will likely be caught off-guard on the initial probe 📉. Key Zone: The visible volume profile reveals a dense Point of Control (POC) oscillating near $4,295 to $4,303, flanked by Value Area High (VAH) resistance around $4,327 and Value Area Low (VAL) support near $4,259 📉. The current VWAP positioning reinforces this tight value equilibrium, confirming that institutional players are storing energy inside this high-volume node rather than driving value directional discovery just yet. Looking at the broader weekly context, price action is hovering right in the middle of our balanced range 💰. I am actively watching for a clear "run on liquidity" above the prior highs near $4,360 or below the lower channel boundary near $4,280 to sweep the impatient stop-losses placed by late retail traders across various social forums before initiating our execution protocol. My Trade Plan 🎯 Bias: Neutral until structural confirmation. Patience is paramount while price remains bound within value. Entry Protocol: Bullish Scenario: A clean Break of Structure (BoS) above $4,360 followed by a retest of the upper range/VWAP value zone for a long targeting $4,410+. Bearish Scenario: A decisive Break of Structure (BoS) below $4,280 followed by a retest of the breakdown level/VWAP node for a short targeting $4,228–$4,208.

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  20. Follow-up17 Sept, 06:17

    Gold Post-FOMC: Break 4,320 or Sweep 4,260?

    • Macro Driver: Spot Gold hovers near $4,313 on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, as global markets brace for today's pivotal FOMC Interest Rate Decision and the release of the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP / Dot Plot). While policy rates are widely projected to remain steady at 3.50%–3.75%, institutional desks are hyper-focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's forward guidance regarding persistent underlying inflation and balance sheet velocity. • Market Condition: Institutional order flow reflects a classic pre-FOMC volatility compression. After absorbing sell-side liquidity at the 4,260 Demand Zone, smart money is coiling price within a tight range between the 4,260 base and 4,320 Resistance Zone, preparing for an aggressive post-announcement directional expansion toward overhead channel resistance. Technical Context • Structure: Re-Accumulation within Bearish Descending Channel. On the 1H timeframe, Gold remains bound beneath the multi-week descending trendline from the 4,511.089 Strong High. Following multiple CHoCH and BOS downside sweeps, price printed a double-bottom absorption at the Demand Zone (4,260 – 4,275). • Liquidity & Imbalance: Price delivery shows immediate rejection at the 4,310–4,320 Resistance Zone (current market price: 4,313.035). The technical roadmap anticipates a shallow corrective retest into the 4,260–4,275 Demand Zone to engineer final buy-side liquidity, followed by an impulsive breakout push piercing through 4,320 to target the Intermediate Supply Block (4,350 – 4,370) and test the descending channel ceiling. Key Zones • Macro Structural Ceiling (Strong High): 4,511.08 • Upper Supply Block: 4,420.00 – 4,435.00 • Intermediate Supply Target (Blue Box): 4,350.00 – 4,370.00 • Immediate Overhead Resistance Zone (Grey Box): 4,310.00 – 4,322.00 • Current Market Price: 4,313.03 • Structural Demand Zone Base (Grey Box): 4,260.00 – 4,275.00 Trading Plan (IF–THEN) • IF price delivers a corrective liquidity tap into the 4,260 – 4,275 Demand Zone AND validates lower-timeframe (M5/M15) bullish displacement/CHoCH -> THEN look to execute Long positions targeting 4,315, expanding through 4,322 directly toward the 4,350.00 – 4,370.00 Intermediate Supply / trendline ceiling. • IF price confirms a decisive 1H close below 4,250 during the FOMC rate release -> THEN the demand accumulation thesis is invalidated, unlocking a deeper sell-side flush toward 4,220. MMFLOW View • Bias: Pre-News Accumulation / Post-FOMC Bullish Expansion. Fading the range midpoint at 4,313 ahead of the Fed rate decision presents poor risk-to-reward; our mathematical edge favors buying verified liquidity defenses at the 4,260–4,275 demand floor to ride the expansion wave into descending channel resistance. Are you positioning for a post-FOMC breakout toward 4,360, or expecting Kevin Warsh's press conference to push Gold below 4,260?

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  21. Follow-up17 Sept, 06:17

    XAUUSD — Bullish Recovery Toward 4,410

    Gold is showing a bullish recovery after reacting strongly from the lower liquidity area. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming a new upside Elliott Wave structure after breaking out from the lower side of the previous bearish channel. The key idea is simple: if gold continues to hold above the Buy zone liquidity, the recovery structure can continue toward the next resistance levels. ⟡ Market structure Gold is currently trading around 4,310–4,318, after bouncing from the Buy zone liquidity near 4,275–4,290. This reaction shows that buyers are trying to defend the lower support area and build a new bullish base. The first resistance to watch is around 4,340–4,355, marked as the short-term sell scalping area. If gold breaks above this zone, the next important level is the strong resistance near 4,367. A clean move above 4,367 would strengthen the bullish structure and open the way toward the 4,405–4,415 Resistance done wave 5 zone. If momentum continues, the larger upside target remains near 4,485–4,500. ➤ Key levels ◌ Current price area: 4,310–4,318 ◌ Buy zone liquidity: 4,275–4,290 ◌ Short-term resistance: 4,340–4,355 ◌ Strong resistance: 4,367 ◌ Main wave 5 target: 4,405–4,415 ◌ Extended bullish target: 4,485–4,500 ◌ Bullish invalidation: below 4,255 ⌁ Elliott Wave view The chart shows a possible bullish Elliott Wave recovery. Wave (1) may have started from the lower liquidity area and pushed price toward 4,317. Wave (2) may have completed after the retest near 4,275–4,290. If this buy zone holds, wave (3) may continue toward 4,340–4,355 and 4,367. Wave (4) could create a short pullback after testing resistance. Wave (5) may then extend toward 4,405–4,415. If buyers remain strong above that area, gold may later attempt the larger resistance zone around 4,485–4,500. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred bullish scenario Entry: Buy around 4,275–4,290 if price gives bullish confirmation from the liquidity zone Stop Loss: Below 4,255 Take Profit 1: 4,340–4,355 Take Profit 2: 4,367 Take Profit 3: 4,405–4,415 Take Profit 4: 4,485–4,500 Alternative entry If gold breaks above 4,340–4,355 and retests this area as support, buyers may look for continuation toward 4,367 and 4,405–4,415. ◌ Invalidation The bullish view becomes weaker if gold breaks below 4,255 and fails to reclaim the buy liquidity zone. In that case, the recovery structure may fail and price could return to the lower bearish channel. ⌁ Kelly’s view Kelly’s main view is bullish while gold holds above 4,275–4,290. The market is showing a strong reaction from the lower liquidity area, and the current pullback may only be preparation for the next upside wave. If buyers defend the buy zone and price breaks above 4,340–4,355, gold may continue toward 4,367, then 4,405–4,415. The larger bullish target remains near 4,485–4,500 if momentum expands. Do you think gold will break above 4,367 first, or retest the buy zone once more before the next rally?

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  22. Follow-up17 Sept, 05:59

    Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD 17/9/2026

    H4 Timeframe After the FOMC announcement, we witnessed a very strong bearish H4 candle. At the moment, price is making a rebound after that sharp decline. As I mentioned yesterday, trying to label the wave structure precisely at this stage is not really necessary. What matters is that the corrective move has already reached the 0.618 retracement of the previous 1–2–3–4–5 wave structure. This is often a target area where a correction may come to an end, also known as the OTE zone. Looking at the Volume Profile, we can clearly see liquidity clusters forming around different price levels. Most importantly, the recent decline closed below the major liquidity zone around 4316. This suggests that 4316 may now act as resistance. If price retraces back into this area, there is a strong possibility that another bearish move could develop. Next, pay attention to the price zone between 4112 and 4223. This is a liquidity void, while directly above this area there is an important low at 4223. What does this mean? There is likely a large amount of Stop Loss liquidity resting below the 4223 low, together with a significant number of pending sell orders below this area. Therefore, price may continue to sweep below 4223 in order to take this liquidity before potentially reacting and moving higher again. So, at the moment, there are two key price zones I am focusing on: 4316: the area where I will watch for a potential Sell setup if price retraces higher. 4223: the area where I am waiting for a liquidity sweep below the low, followed by a possible bullish reaction.

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  23. Follow-up17 Sept, 05:33

    Gold is strong sell pressure after reach major resistance area

    XAUUSD GOLD — BEARISH MARKET ANALYSIS Timeframe: 1H Market: XAUUSD / GOLD Bias: Bearish / Sell MARKET VIEW Gold is currently showing a bearish market structure, with strong selling pressure developing after price reached a major resistance area. The key resistance zone is identified between 4314 – 4303. Price tested this area and was rejected strongly, showing that sellers are actively defending the zone. Following the rejection, Gold delivered a strong bearish move and generated a clear selling opportunity around the 4288 entry area. The rejection from resistance, combined with the strong bearish momentum, supports the current short-term bearish market view on the 1-hour timeframe. 🔴 KEY RESISTANCE ZONE Resistance Area: 4314 – 4303 This zone is important because price previously showed strong rejection from the area. As long as Gold remains below this resistance region, sellers may continue to control the short-term structure. A sustained move back above the resistance zone would require reassessing the bearish setup. SELL ENTRY Sell Entry: 4288 The entry is based on the bearish reaction following the rejection from the 4314–4303 resistance zone and the subsequent downside momentum. TECHNICAL TARGETS TP1: 4262 TP2: 4249 TP3: 4232 These levels represent potential downside areas where price may react or where traders may consider securing partial profits according to their own risk-management plan. TECHNICAL REASONING • Strong rejection from 4314–4303 resistance • Bearish momentum after the rejection • Selling pressure visible on the 1H timeframe • Sell setup activated around 4288 • Potential continuation toward lower support/target areas • Bearish view remains valid while price respects the key resistance region RISK MANAGEMENT This is a technical market analysis, not a guarantee of future price movement. Gold can be highly volatile, especially around major economic news and market sessions. Always use proper risk management, control position size, and avoid risking more than you can afford to lose. Consider securing partial profits as price approaches each target. FINAL MARKET VIEW XAUUSD is showing a bearish setup after a strong rejection from the 4314–4303 resistance zone. With bearish momentum confirmed around the 4288 sell area, the next potential downside levels are 4262, 4249, and 4232. Understand the market view. Trade with a plan. Manage your risk. #XAUUSD #GOLD #GoldAnalysis #Forex #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #Resistance #BearishTrend #SellSignal #TradingView #TradingEducation #RiskManagement #ReubenMilesIf you want, I can also make a short professional TradingView comment for this setup.

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  24. Follow-up17 Sept, 05:33

    XAUUSD H1: Gold Has Two Floors, but Only One Can Save It

    Gold just gave us one of those moves that can easily fool both sides. Price rallied from the 4,260 area, climbed all the way toward 4,365, and then lost almost the entire move in a single aggressive sell-off. Now Gold is sitting around 4,290. So what happened? Buyers proved they can push. Sellers proved they can hit harder. And that leaves price in a very interesting place. Instead of predicting the next candle, I am dividing today's chart into three floors. 4,260 → the defense 4,324 → the checkpoint 4,365 → the control level Whichever side starts taking these floors will tell us much more than the current candle ever could. Floor #1 is already under attack The most obvious area on the chart is the H1 Order Block around 4,258–4,272. This is where the latest collapse found buyers. But I do not want to BUY simply because price returns there. There is a difference between touching support and proving support works. If Gold revisits 4,258–4,272, I want sellers to attack the zone first. Then I want buyers to take it back. In practical terms, a dip into the Order Block followed by an H1 recovery above approximately 4,275 gives me the confirmation I need. BUY — SECOND DEFENSE Entry: 4,272–4,280 after H1 reclaim SL: 4,250 TP1: 4,305 TP2: 4,324 TP3: 4,350 TP4: 4,365 Notice where TP2 sits. That is not a random target. 4,324 is where today's chart changes character. 4,324 is not resistance. It is a checkpoint. Gold is currently below 4,324, and the short-term EMAs are also sitting overhead. That means a bounce from 4,260 is only a bounce until proven otherwise. For buyers to earn something more, I want an H1 candle to close above 4,324, followed by a retest that remains above approximately 4,315–4,324. If that happens, I would stop treating every rally as something to sell. BUY — CHECKPOINT RECLAIM Entry: 4,320–4,327 after bullish retest SL: 4,298 TP1: 4,350 TP2: 4,365 TP3: 4,385 TP4: 4,400 This is the cleaner BUY for traders who do not want to catch the bottom. You sacrifice a cheaper entry. In return, you get more information. That is often a good trade. But there is unfinished business at 4,365 Look at what happened during the previous rally. Gold reached approximately 4,360–4,365, met the falling EMA200, and was immediately rejected. That reaction matters. It tells us sellers are still defending the upper part of the H1 structure. And above it sits the larger 4,380–4,400 resistance zone. So if Gold recovers again, I will not automatically become bullish. I will watch 4,355–4,370 very carefully. A second rejection there, especially an H1 candle that trades above 4,355 but closes back below 4,350, would give sellers another opportunity. SELL — SECOND REJECTION Entry: 4,348–4,358 after rejection confirmation SL: 4,375 TP1: 4,324 TP2: 4,300 TP3: 4,275 TP4: 4,260 This trade has a simple idea behind it: If buyers receive a second opportunity to reclaim the EMA200 and fail again, I do not want to argue with the rejection. I want to trade it. What if the Order Block breaks? This is where the chart becomes much easier. If Gold produces an H1 close below 4,255, I no longer consider 4,260–4,270 a valid buying area. Support has had its chance. It failed. I would then wait for price to bounce back toward 4,255–4,265 from underneath. If that retest is rejected: SELL — FLOOR REMOVED Entry: 4,255–4,263 after bearish retest SL: 4,280 TP1: 4,235 TP2: 4,215 TP3: 4,190 The key here is patience. I do not want to sell a huge red candle below 4,255. Let the breakdown happen. Let price come back. Then see whether former support becomes resistance. That gives the trade structure instead of emotion. And 4,400? That is where I stop looking for reasons to be bearish. The chart still has a major resistance band around 4,380–4,400, so even a recovery above 4,365 does not automatically mean Gold is free. For me, an H1 close above 4,400 followed by a successful hold of 4,385–4,400 would be the real structural upgrade. At that point: BUY — SELLERS LOSE THE ROOF Entry: 4,392–4,402 after retest holds SL: 4,370 TP1: 4,425 TP2: 4,440 TP3: 4,465 TP4: 4,485 Until that happens, 4,400 remains the ceiling. Above it, the chart becomes a different market. My map for today is deliberately simple Forget trying to predict every H1 candle. Watch who owns the floors. Below 4,255: sellers have removed the foundation. 4,260–4,275: buyers get their defensive opportunity. Above 4,324: the recovery starts earning credibility. Around 4,365: buyers face the EMA200 test again. Above 4,400: I stop treating this as merely another rebound. Gold is currently around 4,290, which is almost exactly where I do not want to force a position. The better trades are sitting at the edges of the map. 4,260 asks whether buyers can defend. 4,324 asks whether they can advance. 4,365 asks whether they can survive resistance. 4,400 asks whether they can finally take control. Which level do you think gets taken first — 4,260 or 4,324?

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  25. Follow-up17 Sept, 04:51

    Gold Faces Pressure Following Fed Decision

    Gold prices (XAU/USD) OANDA:XAUUSD attracted limited buying interest but struggled to break and hold above the psychological threshold of US$4,300 per troy ounce throughout the Asian trading session on Thursday, September 17, 2026. The precious metal hovered close to the nearly six-week low touched the previous day. Gold's decline was triggered by the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) unanimous decision to raise its benchmark interest rate—the first hike since 2023—accompanied by a super-hawkish "Dot Plot" chart. This coincided with a surge in the 10-year US Treasury yield toward 5.0% and intensified Houthi-Saudi aerial combat in Yemen. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ US Monetary Policy & Kevin Warsh's Remarks: Unanimous Rate Hike (+25 bps) & Signal for One Further Hike in Dot Plot The Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday evening (early Thursday morning WIB) solidified the Greenback's dominance: - ⚡Unanimous Rate Decision & Dot Plot Projections: Fed officials unanimously voted to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). The updated Dot Plot chart confirmed expectations among top Fed officials to implement one additional rate hike before the end of 2026. - ⚡Remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that the rate hike decision was driven by the strength of the US economy, the lack of improvement in inflation trends over the summer, and geopolitical turmoil. Warsh asserted that inflation remained "too high and has persisted for too long." - ⚡Record US Bond Yields (Near 5.0%): The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond held firm near the 5.0% threshold (its highest level since April 2007). High borrowing costs are eroding the appeal of non-yielding commodities like gold. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Price Action Analysis (H4 Timeframe) From a macro perspective, the H4 structure is in a Bearish/Retest phase. After a gradual decline from the Lower High peak at the 4,511.309 green line, gold slid downward and executed a liquidity sweep (a "wick" penetration) below the local Demand Zone (gray box) to the 4,235.165 level. At the 4,291.105 price level, the most recent H4 candle shows a buying rejection reaction (long lower wick) that successfully pushed the price back into the consolidation floor area. This current green candle indicates a temporary rebound push aimed at filling the imbalance area and testing the Support-Turned-Resistance (SBR) zone above it. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Key Zones: - ⚡Resistance / Supply Zone (SBR): The 4,442.941 green line range (middle gray box / primary SBR & HVN area) and the 4,511.309 green line range (Lower High limit / upper Major Supply Zone). - ⚡Support / Demand Zone: The 4,235.165 – 4,260.000 range (lower gray box where the liquidity sweep occurred) and the 4,154.156 green line (lowest Major Demand Zone stronghold). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Orderflow / Volume Profile (VPVR) Analysis The Volume Profile histogram on the right side of the chart provides a highly precise map of institutional liquidity: - ⚡High Volume Node (HVN) / Upper Local Point of Control (POC): A very dense accumulation of volume is visible above the current price, specifically in the 4,380.000 – 4,442.000 range (indicated by the longest histogram protrusion in the middle section). This HVN level acts as a formidable Orderflow resistance barrier. - ⚡Low Volume Node (LVN) / Volume Vacuum Area below 4,235: Below the 4,235.165 level, extending down to the green line at 4,154.156, the volume histogram shows extreme thinning (a volume vacuum). If sellers succeed in breaking through and triggering a solid H4 candle close below the 4,235.165 base, the decline is projected to accelerate rapidly across this volume void, targeting 4,154.156. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis Mapping wave cycle movements on the H4 timeframe: ⚡Wave Structure: The sharp decline from the major peak to the 4,280.000 area low is calculated as Sub-Wave A (or Wave 1). The upward bounce that stalled at the green line (4,511.309) is identified as the formation of Sub-Wave B (a micro zigzag correction). ⚡Current Status: The decline from 4,511.309 to 4,235.165 is calculated as part of the Sub-Wave C expansion (or micro Wave 3). The upward bounce from 4,235.165 to 4,291.105 currently represents the formation of a minor corrective sub-wave (relief rally) to retest the price efficiency area. ⚡Projection: Price action is projected to complete this corrective rebound by testing the SBR/HVN area in the 4,340.000 – 4,400.000 range, before reversing downward to break the 4,235.165 base and target the Major Demand floor at 4,154.156.

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  26. Follow-up17 Sept, 03:32

    GOLD: Gold H1 Analysis – September 17

    📰 Gold News & Market Developments Following the Fed's decision, the USD and US bond yields remain elevated, exerting pressure on Gold. XAUUSD experienced a sharp decline and is currently recovering from the 4,260 level. On the H1 timeframe, the current recovery is insufficient to confirm a reversal. Prices remain below key EMA lines. => Short-term fundamentals: Bearish bias for Gold. 📊 Analysis The H1 structure still shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows, with the EMA alignment EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100 < EMA200 → the downtrend remains dominant. The rise from 4,260 to above 4,280 may simply be a technical rebound. Therefore, rather than selling at the current price, it is advisable to wait for Gold to rally toward a resistance zone for a better entry position. If the price breaks strongly above 4,325 and holds there, exercise caution with Sell orders and watch for a potential move toward the 4,350–4,365 zone. 🎯 Trading Strategy 🔴 Sell Zone 4,315–4,325 : The EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 converge here. If the price rallies but faces rejection, sellers may step back in. 🔴 Sell Zone 4,357–4,370 : EMA200 + downtrend line + supply zone → a strong resistance area. 🟢 Buy Zone 4,255–4,265 : Key support zone. Only consider buying if a clear reversal signal appears. => Key strategy: Patiently wait for Gold to rebound to the resistance zone to look for selling opportunities, rather than chasing the trade at the current price.

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  27. Follow-up17 Sept, 03:07

    Gold Week 38/2026: Gold ETFs Push Back Against Rising Rates

    Gold Week 38/2026: Stuck as Gold ETFs Push Back Against Rising Rates Two days before the Fed meeting, the world's largest gold fund bought another 2.86 tonnes. Let me say that again: bought more, right before a meeting the whole market had already priced at a 92% chance of a rate hike. A rate hike is the thing gold fears most, because gold pays no interest. And yet the money kept coming in. That is the detail I have thought about most in week 38, more than the Fed decision itself. 🏛️ The Fed hiked, but gold did not break down Early Thursday morning Vietnam time, the Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00%, a 25 basis point hike. The first increase since July 2023. The vote was 12 to 0, not a single dissent. The projections that came with it were tougher than the decision itself. The median rate for end 2026 is 4.10%, which implies at least one more hike across the two meetings left. The Fed raised its inflation forecast to 3.70% while cutting its unemployment forecast to 4.10%. Put plainly, they still have room to tighten, and they intend to use it. The US 10 year yield touched 5.01%, the highest since 2007. Chairman Kevin Warsh said at the press conference that the Fed cannot affect any individual price, but it will stop that change from broadening into second and third order effects. In plain language: the Fed knows a rate hike does not produce a single extra barrel of oil, it is hiking to protect its credibility. With that much bad news, gold should have broken down. On 16 September the price spiked to 4,367 then fell straight to 4,235, a 132 dollar range in one session. But it still closed at 4,280, and this morning it is trading around 4,299. No breakdown. No return to the 39xx area. Every drop has been bought back quickly. 💰 The flows are what matter I pulled the fund numbers to check. From 31 August to 16 September, gold lost $233.84 an ounce. Over the same stretch the fund's holdings rose from 1,042.36 tonnes to 1,050.28 tonnes, almost 8 tonnes more. Price falling, fund accumulating. Those two things happened at the same time, and not by accident. Wider still, World Gold Council data shows global gold ETFs took in $17.86 billion in August alone. The full year to 11 September is $33.20 billion. So a single month of August is worth more than half of the entire year. This is not fast money chasing headlines. This is long term allocation, and it does not reprice because of one meeting. I think this point matters more than any resistance line drawn on a chart. Trading against flows that size is an expensive habit. 🇯🇵 There is still one more meeting to come The BoJ meets on Friday morning. A Bloomberg survey has 52 out of 52 economists expecting Japan to raise rates from 1.00% to 1.25%. This is where it gets interesting. If the BoJ hikes and pairs it with a tone tougher than the Fed's, the rate gap between the US and Japan narrows, the yen strengthens and the dollar softens. A softer dollar gives gold room to breathe. The BoE reports tonight as well. UK labour data on Tuesday afternoon was ugly: the claimant count rose by 27.8 thousand against a forecast of only 8.3 thousand, and it had been falling the month before. Inflation says hike, jobs say stop. Three major central banks deciding across three consecutive days. Flows cannot reprice all of that in a single night. They need time to redistribute. That is why I am not drawing conclusions from the market's first reaction. 📊 Where gold is stuck https://www.tradingview.com/x/bmDuqoTv/ On the 1 hour chart, gold sits at 4,299, hugging the 10 EMA at 4,294, with RSI around 47.8. No clear momentum either way. The short term resistance zone I have marked is 4,413 to 4,455. It lines up with the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 4,413.68 of the decline from the 4,695 high to the 3,958 low, and it also lines up with the area that has capped price several times in September. The short term support zone is 4,169 to 4,229. The 0.618 Fibonacci sits at 4,239.62, just above the top of that zone. The low of the Fed session on 16 September was 4,235, which means price tagged the edge of the zone and bounced straight back. The rising trendline drawn from the July low has been broken, so I no longer treat this as one continuous uptrend. My forecast is that gold stays stuck between 4,169 and 4,455 until a daily candle closes decisively outside the range. 🎯 What I am thinking https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lpew82fD/ I am not betting on either side of the meeting. I wait for the reaction first. For the 4,169 to 4,229 support zone, I treat it as an area to watch for a chance to trade with the direction the money is moving, not an area to catch a falling knife. The condition is that price has to show it is stopping right there, not simply touching it. For the 4,413 to 4,455 resistance zone, I treat it as a place to trim a position if I am holding, not a place to short just because the chart has a horizontal line there. Sellers need to be very careful here. Yields at a nineteen year high, the dollar recovering and printing a short term top, the Fed just hiked and is threatening more. And gold still refuses to break down. When bad news stops pushing price any lower, it is usually because someone is buying underneath. The fund numbers above show there really is someone there. ⚠️ What would prove me wrong The scenario that most clearly proves me wrong is oil cooling off. This whole inflation story rests on the oil price. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was hit by drones on 11 September and has been shut since, pushing oil up almost 24% in a month. If the repair is as quick as the US Energy Department says, a matter of days, then oil falls, inflation cools and the Fed has its excuse to stop. The story changes completely at that point. The second scenario is the BoJ hiking but signalling softly. The dollar holds its strength and gold loses the support it was getting from the currency side. And if price closes a daily candle below 4,169, I drop the entire range scenario above. The next area below is the 0.786 Fibonacci at 4,115. This is my personal view, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Your money, your decision. --- P/S: Don't forget to leave a Like and ask anything you'd like to discuss to trade better every day! Follow tohaitrieu on TradingView to stay connected for the long haul, and talk through each trade together. I believe sharing and discussion help us learn more, and make every analysis and every comment on TradingView more useful for everyone ⚡️

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  28. Follow-up17 Sept, 02:55

    XAUUSD: First Fed Hike in 3 Years — Can Daily Support Hold?

    📊 Market Context The Fed just delivered its first rate hike since 2023 — 25bp to 3.75%–4%, unanimous 12-0. Chair Kevin Warsh made the message unmistakable: inflation has been "too high for too long." The statement dropped references to temporary energy shocks, placed the burden squarely on monetary policy, and signaled one more hike may be coming this year. Middle East tensions were explicitly cited as a contributing factor. For gold, the macro read is straightforwardly bearish: higher real yields, a stronger dollar, rising opportunity costs for a non-yielding asset. Yet XAUUSD TVC:GOLD is sitting at 4,282 — right on a daily support zone that has been holding. This is a decision zone, not a breakdown zone. 📉 Technical Structure Price has pulled back sharply from the 4,697 swing high, printing lower highs and lower lows. Multiple moving averages sit overhead. The short-term trend is under pressure. Key levels: Resistance: 4,315–4,331 (MA cluster) → 4,350–4,371 (recovery zone) → 4,408–4,415 (major resistance) → 4,434–4,510 → 4,697 (swing high) Support: 4,276–4,282 (current) → 4,252 → 4,100 → 3,942 (higher-timeframe) 🎯 Core Thesis Below 4,350–4,371, the bias stays bearish. The cleanest setup is a short on a rejection into that zone — look for a bearish rejection candle, a lower high, and failure to reclaim 4,315–4,331. Confirmation from a stronger dollar or rising Treasury yields would add weight. Bearish targets: 4,252 → 4,100 → 3,942 (extended if macro pressure accelerates). A daily close below 4,276 would confirm the support has failed and sellers remain in control. ⚠️ Risk View But support hasn't broken yet. If 4,276–4,282 holds and price reclaims 4,315–4,331, a relief rebound is live — especially if the dollar fades, yields retreat, or the hike was already fully priced in. A sustained break above 4,350–4,371 would be the first real sign the bearish structure is cracking. Above 4,415, the bearish thesis is invalidated. 🔑 Conclusion The FOMC created a fundamentally bearish setup for gold — higher rates, elevated real yields, potential dollar strength. But price is testing daily support, not breaking it. My read: below 4,350–4,371, stay bearish. Watch 4,276–4,282 for the next move — a break below opens 4,252 and 4,100; a hold and reclaim of 4,331 shifts the tone. I'm tracking the dollar and Treasury yields alongside price for confirmation of the next XAUUSD move. Trade gold and major stock indices through Bitget CFD, including XAUUSD, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq — and stay prepared for opportunities created by FOMC, CPI, nonfarm payrolls and Treasury-yield volatility. ⚠️ Risk warning CFDs are leveraged derivatives and can result in rapid losses. Losses may exceed your initial margin. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your leverage, position size and risk before trading.

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  29. Follow-up17 Sept, 02:51

    XAUUSD H1: The Floor Has Been Hit. Now Gold Must Prove It

    Gold has already shown us where buyers care. The question is whether they care enough. On the H1 chart, price has repeatedly attacked the 4,253–4,260 area. Each time Gold enters this pocket, selling pressure struggles to continue. That makes this zone more than ordinary support. It is where liquidity is concentrated — and right now, it is the most important piece of today's chart. But there is one thing I do not want to do: Buy simply because support exists. Support gives us a location. Price action gives us the trade. 🧲 THE MAGNET BELOW PRICE Look at what happened around 4,253–4,260. Gold traded into this area, bounced aggressively toward 4,360, then came all the way back and tested almost the same floor again. For a new trader, think of it this way: Sellers have already pushed on this floor several times. They still haven't broken it. That makes another reaction interesting — but also dangerous, because every additional test puts more pressure on the level. So my first setup requires Gold to show its hand. If price sweeps 4,253–4,260, returns above approximately 4,269 and produces an H1 bullish reaction, I want the recovery trade. BUY: 4,265–4,275 after the reclaim SL: 4,242 TP1: 4,300 TP2: 4,318 TP3: 4,350–4,367 I am deliberately not chasing Gold around 4,290–4,300. The closer I can enter to the liquidity floor after confirmation, the cleaner the idea becomes. 🎯 4,318 IS WHERE THE EASY PART ENDS A bounce and a bullish continuation are two different things. That distinction matters today. Gold can rebound 30 or 40 dollars from liquidity and still accomplish almost nothing structurally. For me, 4,318 is the checkpoint. An H1 close above it changes the conversation. If Gold breaks 4,318, then pulls back and keeps that level underneath price, I would consider a second long setup rather than waiting for another visit to 4,260. BUY: 4,315–4,322 on a successful retest SL: 4,294 TP1: 4,345 TP2: 4,367 TP3: 4,395–4,402 Why 4,367? Because that is where the next real test begins. A market can bounce easily. Reclaiming old territory is harder. ⚠️ THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT WAYS I WOULD SELL GOLD This is where today's plan gets interesting. I don't need Gold to be bearish everywhere to find a short. SELL #1 — Buyers reach 4,367 and run out of fuel If the recovery reaches 4,360–4,370, I start watching the H1 candles carefully. A clear rejection from that area followed by a close back below approximately 4,355 tells me buyers reached the next obstacle but failed to own it. Then: SELL: 4,355–4,365 after rejection SL: 4,378 TP1: 4,330 TP2: 4,318 TP3: 4,280–4,260 This is not a blind limit sell. No rejection = no entry. 🕳️ SELL #2 — THE FLOOR FINALLY GIVES WAY This is the scenario dip buyers need to respect. If an H1 candle closes below 4,253, the same liquidity zone that currently supports the bullish idea becomes a warning. But I still would not immediately press SELL. I want Gold to come back toward the broken floor and fail to recover it. That turns support into resistance. SELL: 4,250–4,260 after failed reclaim SL: 4,276 TP1: 4,235 TP2: 4,215 TP3: 4,190 This would also cancel my dip-buying plan. Once the floor is genuinely broken, I stop asking it to save buyers. 🔓 4,402 WOULD CHANGE THE CHARACTER OF THIS CHART There is still one level sitting above everything else: 4,402. Gold previously reacted aggressively from this region. So reaching 4,402 is one thing. Living above it is another. If H1 closes above 4,402 and the following pullback holds approximately 4,390–4,402, I would treat that as a much stronger structural recovery. My continuation setup becomes: BUY: 4,395–4,405 after confirmation SL: 4,375 TP1: 4,425 TP2: 4,443 TP3: 4,465 At that point I would stop treating the move as merely another bounce from liquidity. Buyers would have reclaimed meaningful H1 territory. 🧠 IF YOU ARE NEW, IGNORE EVERYTHING EXCEPT THIS Today's chart can be reduced to four decisions: 4,253–4,260 holds → buyers still have a launchpad. 4,318 reclaimed → the bounce gains credibility. 4,367 rejected → sellers may get another opportunity. 4,402 reclaimed → the recovery becomes structurally much more important. And if 4,253 breaks and fails on the retest, don't keep buying simply because the zone worked before. Markets don't owe a support level another bounce. Today I am not choosing between “bullish” and “bearish.” I am watching who survives the second test of 4,253. That answer could decide where Gold travels next.

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  30. Follow-up17 Sept, 02:23

    Gold Under Pressure — Sellers Remain in Control

    XAUUSD is currently showing a clear short-term BEARISH bias , as both the post-Fed macro backdrop and the H1 technical structure remain unsupportive of a sustainable recovery. From a fundamental perspective , gold remains under pressure after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and left the door open for further tightening if inflation does not cool sufficiently. U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, while the dollar continues to receive support following the decision. This high-rate environment remains unfavorable for gold , making short-term rebounds vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. On the H1 timeframe, the bearish structure remains clearly intact . XAUUSD continues to trade below the descending trendline drawn from previous highs, while the latest rally reached the trendline area before being quickly rejected. Price is also trading around the Ichimoku structure, suggesting that buyers have yet to produce a breakout strong enough to change the current market structure. The 4,335–4,345 area remains a key resistance zone . As long as XAUUSD stays below this region and the descending trendline remains intact, rebounds are likely to attract sellers. If bearish pressure returns, the 4,235–4,250 area becomes the next important downside target. Overall, XAUUSD currently looks like a technical recovery within a broader bearish structure . I continue to favor SELL setups on rebounds into resistance with price-action confirmation , rather than trying to catch the bottom before buyers have clearly regained control.

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  31. Follow-up17 Sept, 02:23

    XAUUSD: FOMC Broke the Pattern. Now Gold Must Prove It

    Gold did not simply fall after FOMC. It broke something first. For several sessions, XAUUSD had been climbing inside a short-term rising structure. Buyers gradually pushed price from the 4,250 area toward 4,360. Then FOMC arrived. One violent move erased that entire climb, broke the rising structure and drove Gold toward 4,235. But here is the part I care about: Gold did not stay there. Price immediately recovered from the low, returned above 4,260 and is now trading around 4,290. So instead of asking “Was FOMC bullish or bearish?”, I am asking a much more useful question: Was 4,235 the beginning of another sell-off — or the liquidity event buyers needed? ⚡ THE FOMC CANDLE CREATED TWO EXTREMES Look at the chart and ignore everything in the middle for a moment. The FOMC move gave us two important points: 4,235 below. 4,320 above. I see the current price trapped between those two extremes. And until Gold escapes one side, I do not need to predict anything. I need to react. The interesting detail is what sits between current price and the FOMC low. There is an H1 order block around 4,258–4,275. That zone has already produced a reaction. For buyers, this is their shelter. For sellers, it is the floor they need to destroy. 🟢 I WILL BUY WEAKNESS — BUT ONLY WHILE THIS FLOOR SURVIVES I am not interested in buying randomly around 4,290. I would rather see Gold return toward 4,260–4,275. Why? Because that gives buyers a simple job: Defend the order block. If price trades into this area, rejects it and an H1 candle closes back above 4,275, I would consider the dip successfully defended. BUY Entry: 4,268–4,278 after H1 rejection/reclaim Stop Loss: 4,248 TP1: 4,305 TP2: 4,320 TP3: 4,345–4,355 I would not expect a straight-line rally. 4,320 is the first checkpoint. That is where the post-FOMC recovery has to show that it is more than a temporary bounce. 🧩 4,320 CHANGES THE TYPE OF TRADE This is where my plan becomes more aggressive. If Gold reaches 4,320 and gets rejected, I simply keep treating the market as a recovery inside damaged structure. But if an H1 candle closes above 4,320, something changes. Buyers would have recovered the upper section of the FOMC breakdown. I would then wait for a pullback rather than chase the breakout. Breakout BUY: 4,312–4,322 after successful retest Stop Loss: 4,292 TP1: 4,350 TP2: 4,365 TP3: 4,395–4,405 The final target matters because 4,402 sits around the larger resistance visible on the chart. That is where I would expect the next major argument between buyers and sellers. So my bullish roadmap is simple: Protect 4,260 → recover 4,320 → attack 4,350 → challenge 4,402. Each step has to be earned. 🔴 THE SHORT I WANT REQUIRES SOMETHING TO BREAK FIRST Selling while the order block is still holding does not interest me. I want sellers to prove that the reaction from 4,235 has failed. The proof would be an H1 close below 4,258. Not a wick. Not a five-minute spike. A proper H1 close below the order block. Then I want price to return toward 4,258–4,270 and fail to recover it. That would turn today's support into resistance. SELL Entry: 4,258–4,268 after bearish retest Stop Loss: 4,282 TP1: 4,240 TP2: 4,235 TP3: 4,215–4,220 This setup tells me something very different from a normal pullback: The FOMC low is no longer being defended. And once 4,235 breaks on an H1 closing basis, I would stop looking for an immediate bullish recovery. 🎯 THERE IS ALSO A SELL ABOVE CURRENT PRICE There is one scenario where I do not need the order block to fail. Gold could rally first. If buyers push into 4,345–4,360 but cannot hold the move, I will watch closely for an H1 rejection. A strong upper wick followed by a close back below 4,345 would tell me that yesterday's broken rising structure is still attracting sellers. Rejection SELL: 4,345–4,355 Stop Loss: 4,370 TP1: 4,320 TP2: 4,290 TP3: 4,265 But there is a strict rule here: No SELL if Gold closes above 4,365 and holds it on the retest. At that point, I would rather follow the recovery toward 4,395–4,405. 🧠 IF YOU ARE NEW, READ ONLY THIS PART You do not need to predict the next 100 dollars. Let Gold answer four smaller questions: Does 4,260–4,275 hold? Then buyers still have a base. Does 4,320 break and hold? Then the recovery becomes stronger. Does 4,345–4,360 reject price? Then sellers may regain control. Does 4,258 break and fail on the retest? Then I switch bearish toward 4,235 and potentially lower. That is my entire map. No guessing required. FOMC damaged the short-term bullish structure. But it also created a violent rejection from 4,235. That leaves Gold in an unusual position today: The old bullish structure is broken, but the bears have not finished the job. Now 4,260–4,275 becomes the evidence. If buyers keep it, yesterday's collapse may eventually become the foundation for a larger recovery. If sellers take it away, 4,235 comes back into play very quickly. Your call: was the FOMC drop a real breakdown — or just a massive liquidity sweep before Gold goes after 4,400 again?

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  32. Follow-up17 Sept, 01:52

    Bearish Continuation After FVG Retracement | XAUUSD 17/09

    Gold is trading around 4,313 after a sharp bearish displacement from the 4,350–4,360 area. The H1 chart shows a previous SSL sweep around 4,260, followed by accumulation and a bullish expansion. However, the latest rejection from the upper structure has shifted the short-term focus back toward bearish continuation. My main expectation for today is a retracement into the FVG, followed by a potential bearish reaction and a move toward the lower liquidity. 🔍 H1 MARKET STRUCTURE • Price rejected the 4,350–4,360 resistance area. • Strong bearish displacement broke through the previous accumulation structure. • Current price is recovering toward the FVG around 4,310–4,330. • The 4,390–4,405 H1 OB remains a higher resistance zone. • Lower liquidity around 4,260 and OB + Support around 4,230–4,240 remain relevant downside areas. 📌 TODAY'S PRIMARY SCENARIO — BEARISH My bias for September 17 is bearish continuation, provided price fails to reclaim the 4,350–4,360 resistance area. The preferred sequence: Price retraces into the 4,310–4,330 FVG. Price shows rejection from the FVG or nearby resistance. M5/M10 develops bearish MSS and displacement. Price continues toward the lower liquidity around 4,260. If downside momentum remains strong, the next area of interest is 4,230–4,240. 🎯 TRADE PLAN — BEARISH SETUP Entry Zone: 4,320–4,330 Entry Condition: Wait for bearish confirmation on M5/M10 after price reacts inside the FVG. SL: 4,365 TP1: 4,290 TP2: 4,260 TP3: 4,235 Risk-to-Reward: • Entry 4,325 → SL 4,365 = 40 points risk. • TP1 4,290 = 35 points potential. • TP2 4,260 = 65 points potential. • TP3 4,235 = 90 points potential. The setup offers approximately 1:1.6 to TP2 and 1:2.25 to TP3 from the middle of the entry zone. ⚠️ Invalidation If price reclaims 4,365 with strong bullish displacement, the bearish entry idea is invalidated. If price breaks and holds above 4,350–4,360, avoid forcing the bearish setup. The market may continue toward the upper OB around 4,390–4,405. 🔄 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO — BULLISH RECOVERY If price reclaims 4,350–4,360 and confirms bullish continuation on M5/M10, the bearish retracement idea is no longer the preferred setup. Potential upside areas: • 4,390–4,405 — H1 OB • 4,420–4,435 — Upper OB No entry will be considered without confirmation. 🧠 MY BIAS Bearish continuation remains my primary scenario for today. The key area to watch is 4,310–4,330. I am looking for a retracement into the FVG, bearish confirmation, and continuation toward 4,260 before considering the deeper 4,230–4,240 support.

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  33. Follow-up17 Sept, 00:51

    GOLD — THE FED GAVE US THE MOVE… NOW WHAT?

    We've been sitting in consolidation for most of the week waiting for the Fed. Well... we finally got the catalyst. The Fed raised rates by 25bps today, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, while also signaling that inflation remains elevated and that additional tightening could still be on the table. And Gold initially reacted exactly how you'd expect. Straight down. But here's where I'm getting interested. That selloff pushed price directly into the area I've been waiting for. The H4 FVG was largely filled, and price also swept the lows. Now I'm watching to see what happens after the liquidity grab. Because at this point, I don't necessarily want to chase the downside. I want to see if sellers can actually hold the lower prices. 🔵 THE BULLISH IDEA The level I'm watching now is the Previous Weekly Low around 4,339.7. Price is currently below it. So I'm not calling a long simply because we swept the lows. I want to see price reclaim that level. If we push back above the Previous Weekly Low, then I want to see whether we can retest it from above and hold. Something like: Sweep the lows → FVG fill → buyers step in → reclaim PWL → successful retest → continuation. THAT is the setup I'm interested in. If that happens, the Fed reaction could end up being the liquidity event that gave buyers the opportunity to step back in. 🔴 BUT I'M NOT GOING TO FORCE THE BULLISH STORY This is the part that's important. The Fed just delivered a hawkish catalyst, and the initial reaction was bearish for Gold. So if price cannot reclaim the Previous Weekly Low, I'm not going to sit here saying: "Well... they swept the lows, so it has to go up." Nope. If sellers continue accepting price below that level, then the sweep wasn't necessarily a reversal. It may simply have been the beginning of another leg lower. And that's when I'm looking for the next area where Gold may want to react. 📊 WHAT I'M WATCHING IN ORDER FLOW This is where the DOM/order flow becomes important for me. I want to see whether the aggressive selling we're getting after the Fed actually produces continued downside acceptance. If sellers keep hitting the market but price stops making meaningful progress lower... That's interesting. If buyers begin absorbing that selling... Even more interesting. Then we reclaim the Previous Weekly Low? Now we've got something I can actually work with. I'm not trying to predict the reversal. I'm waiting for the market to prove it. 🎯 MY PLAN Bullish scenario: 🔹 H4 FVG gets filled 🔹 Lows get swept 🔹 Selling pressure begins to dry up 🔹 Buyers take control 🔹 Price reclaims ~4,339.7 🔹 Retest holds 🔹 Look for continuation higher Bearish scenario: 🔻 Price remains below the Previous Weekly Low 🔻 Sellers continue accepting lower prices 🔻 Reclaim attempt fails 🔻 No reason for me to force a long 🔻 Wait for the next major level/FVG The key for me is 4,339.7. I don't need to catch the exact bottom. I'd rather miss the first 30–50 points and get confirmation that buyers have actually taken control than try to call the bottom and get run over if sellers aren't finished. The news created the volatility. Now I'm watching price tell me what that volatility actually means. Let it show its hand. #Gold #MGC #GC #GoldFutures #FuturesTrading #OrderFlow #PriceAction #VolumeProfile #MarketStructure #TradingView #DayTrading #Futures #COMEX #GoldTrading

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  34. 16 September
  35. Follow-up16 Sept, 23:07

    XAUUSD H1: Bearish Continuation After Strong Displacement From t

    XAUUSD is currently trading around 4,264, showing strong bearish momentum after a sharp displacement from the upper H1 Order Block around 4,340–4,360. The broader H1 market remains bearish, with multiple BOS confirming the previous downside structure. Price recently reacted from the upper OB before breaking below the FIBO + FVG zone around 4,300–4,315, indicating increasing selling pressure. The current price action shows a bearish structure, with the EMA 20/50/100/200 aligned above price. This suggests that the short-term recovery has weakened and bearish continuation remains a potential scenario. The major BSL Liquidity zone around 4,480–4,510 remains positioned above the current structure, while the lower area around 4,240–4,250 represents a potential downside liquidity objective. The Bias: Short-Term Bearish Continuation / Potential Retracement. The Target Path: Price may first retrace toward the 4,280–4,315 FIBO + FVG area. If price rejects from this zone, further downside expansion toward the 4,240–4,250 liquidity area could follow. Potential Setup: Observe price reaction around the 4,280–4,315 FIBO + FVG zone. A bearish rejection, followed by bearish displacement and a confirmed MSS/BOS, could provide a potential continuation scenario. Confirmation: A clear rejection from the FIBO + FVG zone, followed by a bearish MSS and sustained trading below 4,280, would strengthen the bearish continuation thesis. Alternative Scenario: If price reclaims the FIBO + FVG zone and sustains bullish momentum, a deeper recovery toward the 4,340–4,360 OB could develop. A strong reclaim above the upper OB would weaken the immediate bearish structure. Invalidation: Strong acceptance above the 4,340–4,360 OB would weaken the short-term bearish continuation thesis. Educational purposes only — Not financial advice.

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  36. Follow-up16 Sept, 20:49

    Gold Hits Support After the Fed — Is a Bullish Reversal Next?

    Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) started to decline with strong bearish momentum following the Federal Funds Rate decision and remarks from Kevin Warsh. The price is now trading inside the Heavy Support Zone, near the Support Lines and the major Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Can gold hold this support structure and trigger a bullish recovery? Macro Outlook The recent sell-off accelerated after the Federal Funds Rate decision and Warsh’s remarks increased pressure on gold. However, gold has now reached an important technical area where buyers could attempt to regain short-term control. Technical Analysis From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have developed a corrective structure to the downside over the past 13 days, suggesting that at least a short-term bullish move could begin from the current area. From a classical technical analysis perspective, gold also appears to have formed a Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern, which could support a potential bullish reversal. A Positive Regular Divergence(RD+) is also visible between two Major Consecutive Valley Pivots, providing another sign that bearish momentum may be weakening. 💡 Educational Note: A Descending Broadening Wedge can signal weakening bearish control when price begins reacting strongly from its lower boundary, especially when supported by bullish divergence. I expect gold to start moving higher from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and the Support Lines, with an initial target around $4,317. If bullish momentum increases and gold breaks above the Resistance Lines, the recovery could extend toward $4,391. Trade Setup First Take Profit(TP): $4,317 Second Take Profit(TP): $4,391 Stop Loss(SL): $4,170 Key Trading Levels: $4,330 _ $4,400 Which level do you think gold will reach first? 🟢 $4,391 🔴 $4,170 📌 Gold Analysis(XAUUSD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always use proper risk management and set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position. 🚀 If this analysis helps your trading plan, a BOOST would help more traders discover it.

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  37. Follow-up16 Sept, 18:12

    GOLD / USD – 15M Technical Analysis

    Bearish Setup – Trendline Rejection Gold is currently trading around 4,329.54, approaching a major confluence resistance formed by the descending trendline + horizontal resistance at 4,371. The 15-minute structure remains bearish, with a sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. 📍 Key Resistance 4,350–4,371 This is the critical sell zone. A rejection from this area, particularly near the descending trendline, would strengthen the bearish continuation setup. Major invalidation: A confirmed 15M/1H close above 4,371, followed by a successful retest, would weaken the bearish structure. 🎯 Bearish Targets Entry Zone: 4,350–4,370 TP1: 4,250 TP2: 4,200 TP3: 4,150 if bearish momentum accelerates. The first target at 4,250 is particularly important because it coincides with the visible horizontal support and previous swing-low area. 🛑 Stop Loss For a short taken around 4,350, a logical invalidation level is above 4,371–4,380, rather than placing the stop exactly at 4,371, because a brief liquidity sweep above resistance can occur before the actual move lower. 📊 Trade Structure SHORT: 4,350–4,370 SL: 4,380+ TP1: 4,250 TP2: 4,200 TP3: 4,150 From 4,350 → 4,250, the potential move is approximately 100 points, giving attractive risk/reward if the stop is kept appropriately above the resistance zone. 🔑 Confirmation The cleanest confirmation would be: Resistance test → bearish rejection → break of the latest 15M swing low → continuation toward 4,250. Conversely, a strong breakout and acceptance above 4,371 would invalidate the immediate short setup and could open the way toward the next resistance levels. TradingView Summary: Bearish below 4,371. Sell the retest/rejection of 4,350–4,370. Initial target 4,250. A sustained breakout above 4,371 invalidates the bearish setup.

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  38. Follow-up16 Sept, 17:32

    XAUUSD — FOMC Breakout Buy Setup | Liquidity Sweep Continuation

    Gold has been in a strong descending channel since the sharp drop from the 4,400 highs, printing lower highs and lower lows across multiple sessions. However, price has recently broken above the descending trendline resistance that capped every prior rally attempt — signaling a potential shift in short-term structure. This breakout is occurring right into a major FOMC data release, adding volatility and liquidity-driven momentum to the move. 🟢 1. BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY (~4,400+) A large pool of resting buy stops sits above the original swing high near 4,400. This untapped liquidity remains the primary draw for price — the market has a strong tendency to seek out untouched liquidity pools, and this is the most significant one on the chart. Expect price to gravitate toward this level as the bullish move develops. 🔺 2. FOMC DATA SETUP (Trendline Break) The descending trendline connecting the lower highs since the initial drop has now been decisively broken to the upside. This break of structure (BOS) is a strong signal that the corrective/bearish phase may be transitioning into a new bullish leg. Because this break coincides with FOMC, the move carries extra weight — news-driven volatility often confirms or accelerates structural shifts like this one. ⬛ 3. ORDER BLOCK (~4,280–4,300) A clean bullish order block formed near the recent swing low, right at the point where sell-side liquidity was last swept. This block represents the last point of aggressive institutional buying before the impulsive rally began — the origin of the current bullish leg and a key zone that, if retested, should hold as support. 🟫 4. STRONG FVG (~4,320–4,345) Just above the order block, a Strong Fair Value Gap formed during the impulsive push higher. This imbalance zone is currently being respected as price consolidates — the tight, choppy price action here reflects a healthy retracement/re-accumulation phase before continuation, rather than a reversal. 🔴 5. SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY (~4,260) Located at the base of the entire structure, this liquidity pool was swept during the final leg down, providing the fuel (stop-hunt) for the current bullish reversal. With this liquidity already taken, downside pressure is reduced, reinforcing the bullish bias going forward. 🎯 TRADE THESIS Price has broken the multi-day descending trendline, confirmed by a base at the Order Block and consolidation inside a Strong FVG. With sell-side liquidity already swept below and buy-side liquidity still resting above 4,400, the path of least resistance favors continuation to the upside — especially with FOMC volatility acting as the catalyst to push price into that untapped liquidity zone. 📍 Entry: 4341.00 🛑 SL: 4322.61 🎯 TP1: 4360 | TP2: 4375 | TP3: 4390 | TP4 (Final): 4403.08 https://www.tradingview.com/x/MhEaFCzo/

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  39. Follow-up16 Sept, 17:22

    GOLD H1: Bearish Rejection — Is 4317 the Gateway to 4289–4261?

    The H1 chart shows a short-term bearish setup, but it does not yet confirm a straight decline toward the final downside target. Price was rejected from 4355–4365, followed by a SELL signal and a local swing high. Two consecutive bearish candles have formed, while the dashboard shows Strong Bearish, bearish confirmation, and 100% candle strength. However, the H1 structure remains broadly bullish while price holds above PDH 4317.15. A move into that level could still be only a retracement. The major supply zone is approximately 4365–4400. Important downside liquidity sits at PDM 4289.13, EQL 4275.90, PDL 4261.10, followed by sell-side liquidity around 4242.57 and 4234.52. My primary scenario: Decline toward 4317. Possible rebound into 4335–4350. If that rebound is rejected and an H1 candle closes below 4317, the next objectives become 4289 → 4276 → 4261. A confirmed break below 4261 would expose 4243–4235. The 4216 bear target is an extended objective, not a guaranteed same-day target. Bearish invalidation: an H1 recovery and close above 4357–4365. That could reopen 4383, followed by 4400. Bottom line: the projected bearish direction is technically reasonable, but the exact path is too precise to trust. 4317 is the decision level—above it, this is mainly a pullback; below it, the bearish case becomes substantially stronger. Probability over prediction. https://www.tradingview.com/x/EZhHhnvJ/

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  40. Follow-up16 Sept, 17:13

    Gold next move, expecting bullish move (16-09-2026)

    Plz Go through the analysis carefully and do trade accordingly. Anup 'BIAS for the day (16-09-2026) Current price- 4340 "if Price stays above 4295-4300, then next target is 4390, 4445, 4480, 4510 & 4580 if price break this Key-area 4295-4300 , then the next target will be 4250, 4220 & 4160". Advice- (analysis is valid if FED doesn't hike interest rate in FOMC release) Reasons: 1. As per Eliot wave theory, in 4H time frame, the fourth correctional wave has completing ABC correction. Now if it sustains the we will see 5th impulse wave targeting 4900. 2. in 1-Week time frame, the price already tapped imbalance now 1D,4H gave good reaction, which indicates possible bullish move. 3. in 1D time frame, the price have taken liquidity downside and it created HH low (strong low) and now it is trading near diagonal resistance (in 4-H completed 123 move ) which indicates possible bullish move. 3. in 4-H time frame price breaks the RBS zone after having made HH bottom with efficient move (123 move) and now as of publication of this analysis it is trading near diagonal resistance. it price managed to break it then we may see strong bullish move. 4. in 1-H time frame, price did MSS towards bullish direction with efficient move which indicates possible bullish move at least up to 4445 to grab upside liquidity. 5. in 15-M, 5-M it bullish structurally and moving bullish side. Best of luck, Caution: Never risk more than 1% of principal to follow any position. Support us by liking and sharing the post.

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  41. Follow-up16 Sept, 16:34

    XAUUSD 4H | Gold at Critical Decision Zone | EMA200 + Supply Res

    1. Higher Timeframe Structure Current Bias: Bearish Correction Inside Larger Bull Trend From the chart: - Price made a strong rally: - HH - BOS upward - New highs around 4500+ Then: - Strong rejection from supply area - Created: - Lower High (LH) - Lower Low (LL) - Multiple bearish BOS Currently price is below: EMA 200 (4364 area) This is very important. Until price reclaims and holds above EMA200, sellers still have control. Resistance Zones 1) EMA 200 + Trendline Resistance Area: 4355 - 4375 Currently price is testing: - Descending trendline - EMA200 - Previous breakdown area This is the first decision point. If rejected: Possible continuation lower. If broken and accepted: Short-term bullish reversal. 2) Supply Zone Area: 4435 - 4465 Your marked supply zone is very important. This is where previous sellers entered. For bulls: A 4H candle close above this zone would invalidate the current bearish structure. Support Zones Demand Zone 1 Your blue zone: 4319 - 4253 This is the most important area. Why? Because: - Previous liquidity sweep happened here - Buyers defended this region - It created the latest bounce This is where I expect reaction. Demand Zone 2 Major support: 4120 If 4250 fails: The next magnet becomes: 4120 area. Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Higher Probability Structure) Condition: Price rejects: 4355-4375 with: - bearish candle - weak volume - No Demand - RSI bearish divergence - CISD bearish shift Entry idea: SELL: 4355-4375 Targets: TP1: 4319 TP2: 4253 TP3: 4120 Invalidation: Above: 4435 Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal For buyers, I would not enter immediately. Need confirmation: Price breaks: 4375 Then: Retest 4355-4375 with: - No Supply - bullish CISD - volume confirmation Targets: TP1: 4435 TP2: 4480 TP3: 4529

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  42. Follow-up16 Sept, 15:49

    XAUUSD – Bullish Breakout & Upside Continuation Setup

    📊 XAUUSD – Bullish Breakout & Upside Continuation Setup 🔍 Market Overview Gold is showing a constructive recovery on the 2H timeframe after bouncing strongly from the 4,260–4,271 support zone. Price has formed a higher-low structure and is now consolidating beneath the 4,360 resistance area, while the ascending trendline continues to provide dynamic support. The current structure suggests that buyers are attempting to regain control. A confirmed breakout above the 4,360 resistance could open the way toward the next upside levels. 📈 Market Structure Insight * Market Bias: Bullish * Momentum: Improving * Current Phase: Bullish Recovery / Breakout Setup The rising trendline combined with the recent rebound from support indicates that buyers are defending lower levels. Price compression near resistance could lead to an upside expansion if the breakout is confirmed. 🚀 Trading Scenarios ✅ Bullish Scenario — Primary Bias Conditions: * Price holds above the ascending trendline. * Buyers continue defending the recent higher-low structure. * Price breaks and sustains above the 4,360 resistance area. * Bullish momentum continues above the breakout zone. Trade Plan: Look for buying opportunities on a controlled pullback toward the breakout area or after a confirmed bullish continuation move. 🎯 Target 1: 4,400 🎯 Target 2: 4,435 ❌ Bearish Invalidation Scenario Conditions: * Price fails to break above the 4,360 resistance. * Strong rejection develops from the upper structure. * Price breaks below the ascending trendline. * The 4,260–4,271 support zone is decisively lost. A confirmed breakdown below the major support area would weaken the bullish structure and could trigger a deeper corrective move. 🎯 Key Support Zone: 4,260 – 4,271 📍 Key Levels to Monitor 🟢 Immediate Resistance: 4,360 🟢 Target 1: 4,400 🟢 Major Target: 4,435 🔴 Immediate Support: 4,271 🔴 Major Support: 4,260 ⚠️ Trading Perspective The overall structure remains constructive as long as Gold respects the ascending trendline and holds above the 4,260–4,271 support zone. A decisive breakout above 4,360 would provide additional confirmation for bullish continuation toward 4,400, followed by 4,435. However, a clear breakdown below the major support zone would invalidate the current bullish structure and require a reassessment of the setup. 🧠 Professional Insight This setup is supported by: * Strong reaction from the support zone. * Ascending trendline support. * Higher-low recovery structure. * Price compression beneath resistance. * Improving bullish momentum. * Clear upside objectives at 4,400 and 4,435. Preferred approach: Avoid chasing price directly into resistance. A confirmed breakout and retest, or a controlled pullback toward dynamic support, can provide a more structured continuation setup. 🛡️ Risk Management * Risk only 1–2% of trading capital per position. * Define invalidation before entering. * Keep stop-loss below the relevant support structure. * Avoid excessive leverage during high-volatility sessions. * Wait for confirmation rather than entering solely on anticipation. * Maintain disciplined position sizing throughout the trade. Disclaimer: This market analysis is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

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  43. Follow-up16 Sept, 14:24

    UDSJPY - Watching for a SELL Around BOJ

    USDJPY is at an interesting point on the Daily timeframe, and I’m currently looking for an opportunity to SELL, but I’m not rushing the entry. Price has already broken below its previous support structure and is currently trading below the 20, 50 and 200 EMAs, keeping my overall bias bearish. Right now, I’m watching two potential resistance areas for price reaction: 🔸 First area: ~155.3–155.6 — current broken support / resistance 🔸 Second area: ~157.2–157.6 — stronger resistance and close to the 200 EMA Rather than entering immediately, I want to see how price behaves around these levels, especially with the upcoming BOJ monetary policy meeting on September 17–18. The BOJ's monetary-policy statement is scheduled for September 18, so volatility around USDJPY could increase significantly. 🎯 Bigger downside area There is also a market gap around the 147.7–149.5 region that remains open on my chart. If bearish momentum resumes after the BOJ and USDJPY fails to reclaim the resistance areas above, this gap will be an important downside area I’ll be watching. For now: Bearish structure 📉 Two SELL areas on watch 👀 BOJ ahead ⚠️ Open market gap below 🎯 I’m staying patient and waiting for price action + BOJ volatility to show me the entry rather than forcing a trade before the event. This is my personal market analysis and not financial advice. Always manage your own risk. #USDJPY #Forex #ForexTrading #BOJ #JapaneseYen #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #bottradingwithkinki

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  44. Follow-up16 Sept, 14:02

    Best Indicator for Support & Resistance Analysis in Gold XAUUSD

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/IZTlx9mo/ I will show you the best and free indicator that will help you do support and resistance analysis on Gold on any time frame. If you are a beginner in Gold XAUUSD trading, this technical indicator will help you a lot in market structure analysis, whether you are using TradingView, MT4/MT5. We will use a classic, default technical indicator that is available in any trading terminal. It is called Zig-Zag. To add it to your chart on TradingView, simply search for it in the indicators window. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1h8TT2e7/ This indicator maps significant historical highs and lows, which are the ultimate base for supports and resistances. However, with the default settings of the indicator, it is less sensitive and may miss significant highs and lows, especially if you analyse lower time frames. To set the indicator up properly, find the s mallest recognizable price action leg on a price chart and measure its length in % percentage. https://www.tradingview.com/x/LG7eMPLJ/ In our example, there is one important impulse leg that the indicator misses. This movement has 4.04% length. Open the settings of the indicator and find "Price deviation for reversals (%)" in inputs. Input 4.04 number to make the indicator more sensitive. https://www.tradingview.com/x/IZ2xz63J/ Now, the indicator starts recognizing this movement. The highs and lows that the indicator maps are key levels. Mark them with horizontal lines. https://www.tradingview.com/x/72B3QYcF/ After that, draw support and resistance zones based on these key levels. Just pick the candle that comprises a key level. Among its closing and opening levels, choose the closest one to a key level and draw the zones. https://www.tradingview.com/x/tjE94yAg/ And the final step is to remove past supports and resistances that Gold XAUUSD price stopped respecting. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vdsyn57b/ That's how a complete analysis looks. And you can use ZigZag indicator for support and resistance analysis on Gold on any time frame for scalping or day trading; you just need to change the settings. If you just started Gold trading, support and resistance analysis may appear complicated to you. This method will help you never miss important supports and resistance when trading Gold XAUUSD. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.

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  45. Follow-up16 Sept, 13:50

    CPB: Textbook Channel Bounce & Structured Path to Sell Zones

    Hello Traders, Analyzing the daily (1D) chart for The Campbells Company (NASDAQ: CPB), we can observe a highly disciplined Price Action unfolding within a well-defined ascending channel. The asset is perfectly respecting these structural boundaries, giving us a clear edge in defining the trend and potential entry/exit zones. Market Structure & Current Price Action: Structural Support Validated: Following the recent corrective wave, the price has perfectly tagged the lower boundary of the ascending channel near our marked entry of $21.57. This lower trendline acts as a robust dynamic support. Bullish Rejection: The recent price action at this boundary shows a clear rejection of lower prices, indicating that buyers are aggressively stepping in to defend the trend. This sets the stage for a markup phase, provided the price maintains its structure within the channel. Roadmap & Sell Zones: Based on the internal geometry of the channel and previous structural swing highs, we have mapped out three sequential liquidity/sell zones for taking profits: Target 1 (Sell Zone 1): Around $22.70 - $23.00 (Minor structural resistance). Target 2 (Sell Zone 2): Around $23.80 - $24.00 (Targeting previous swing high liquidity). Target 3 (Sell Zone 3): Around $24.90 - $25.10 (Maximum wave extension at the upper boundary of the channel). Conclusion: The overarching structure remains bullish. Entering near the lower channel boundary offers an excellent Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio. A daily close below the lower green channel line would invalidate this bullish setup. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! Happy trading! 📈 Disclaimer: This analysis is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading involves risks, and you should always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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  46. Follow-up16 Sept, 13:35

    XAUUSD 4353 squeeze — 4508 is the trap

    XAUUSD 4353 squeeze — 4508 is the trap Gold finally got back above 4,300. But I’m not calling this clean bullish yet. Price defended the important 4,280 - 4,294 area, which lines up with the old sellside liquidity zone and the 50-day SMA reaction area. That bounce matters. Sellers tried to press lower, but they failed to break the lower base cleanly. Now gold is sitting around 4,353, right near the upper side of this bearish channel. This is the decision point. If buyers can break out of the channel and hold above 4,360, the recovery can keep pushing. First draw is 4,454. That is the buy-side liquidity sitting above the current range. If that level gets taken, 4,508 becomes the bigger target. But yeah, 4,508 is not a place to blindly chase. That zone is the premium area from the previous drop. If gold reaches 4,500 - 4,508 and starts rejecting, sellers can reload again. Especially while USD is still firm, Fed focus is ahead, and gold is still struggling around the 100-day SMA area with RSI not fully bullish yet. Main bias is short-term bullish recovery while gold holds above 4,294 - 4,280. But the higher-timeframe structure is still not fully repaired until gold clears 4,454 - 4,508. Trading scenario: Buy idea only if gold holds above 4,294 and breaks above 4,360 with clean candles. Entry zone: 4,320 - 4,360 after confirmation Deeper buy zone: 4,280 - 4,294 if price sweeps and reclaims Stop loss: below 4,260 TP1: 4,454 TP2: 4,508 TP3: 4,540 if momentum expands No reclaim, no chase. Simple. Sell reaction only if gold reaches 4,500 - 4,508 and rejects hard. That would be a premium reaction trade, not the main early move. If gold breaks below 4,260 with pressure, the bounce idea is cooked. Then sellers can drag price back toward 4,220 - 4,180. For now, I’m reading this as sellside defended, bearish channel breakout attempt, and 4,508 liquidity waiting. You think gold breaks 4,454 first, or traps buyers before the Fed move?

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  47. TI
    Follow-up16 Sept, 12:55

    XAUUSD — Bullish Recovery After the Pullback

    Market Pulse Gold is recovering ahead of the Fed decision as the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields and oil prices ease. A 25 bp rate hike is largely expected, so the bigger reaction may come from the Fed’s guidance. This could keep Gold volatile around the announcement. What the Chart Says XAUUSD is showing a stronger short-term recovery on H1. Price has climbed from the 4,270 area and is now holding around 4,340, after breaking back above previous short-term structure. The nearest support sits around 4,330–4,340. If this area holds, buyers may try to continue the recovery. The next resistance is around 4,345–4,355. A clean move above this zone could open the way toward the stronger 4,395–4,405 resistance area. A deeper pullback could still reach 4,300–4,320, which remains the stronger demand zone below. Levels That Matter 4,395–4,405 — Main upside resistance 4,345–4,355 — First resistance 4,330–4,340 — Near-term support 4,300–4,320 — Main demand zone 4,270–4,280 — Recent swing support My Main Plan The main plan is bullish. I prefer waiting for price to hold above 4,330–4,340 or make a controlled pullback toward 4,300–4,320. If buyers return with clear confirmation, Gold could first challenge 4,345–4,355. A clean breakout above that area may extend the recovery toward 4,395–4,405. What I Need to See I want to see the current recovery keep forming higher lows and price hold above the marked support structure. A sustained H1 move below 4,300 would weaken the immediate bullish setup. Final Read The short-term H1 picture is improving, but Gold is approaching resistance just before the Fed decision. For now, I prefer waiting for a pullback and bullish confirmation rather than chasing the move higher, with 4,395–4,405 remaining the main recovery target.

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  48. Follow-up16 Sept, 12:55

    BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD HOLDS POC BEFORE FED DECISION

    BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD HOLDS POC BEFORE FED DECISION Gold is trading cautiously below 4,350 as the market moves into the Fed decision window. The current price action is not clean enough to chase aggressively. Buyers have managed to recover from the recent low, but gold is still struggling below the short-term sell zone around 4,353 and the larger Composite VAH resistance near 4,390 - 4,400. The macro background is mixed. A softer US dollar gives gold some short-term support, but the strong move in US Treasury yields continues to limit bullish momentum. With the Fed expected to raise rates by 25 bps, traders are now focused on the updated economic projections, the dot plot, and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. This is why gold is moving carefully around value. The market is waiting for confirmation, not just direction. Technical structure On the 45-minute chart, gold is holding above the POC / HVN Value Support around 4,320 - 4,330. This is the most important intraday support zone. Price has already reacted from this area and is now attempting to build a recovery structure. As long as buyers defend this zone, gold still has room to test higher resistance. The first short-term resistance is around 4,353 - 4,365. This area is marked as the sell zone and sits near the current rejection line. If gold reaches this zone and fails to break cleanly, sellers may step back in and push price down toward 4,320 again. Above that, the Composite VAH / Major Resistance around 4,390 - 4,400 is the main upside barrier. A clean break and acceptance above this zone would be the first sign that buyers are taking back stronger control. If the POC / HVN support fails, the downside levels are clear: 4,292 as the first target, 4,275 as secondary support, and 4,262 as the major downside target. Important zones Current price area: 4,340 - 4,350 Gold is holding above short-term value but still below resistance. POC / HVN Value Support: 4,320 - 4,330 Main buyer defense zone for the current structure. Sell zone: 4,353 - 4,365 First resistance and seller reaction area. Composite VAH / Major Resistance: 4,390 - 4,400 Major upside resistance before any stronger bullish continuation. VAL first downside target: 4,292 First downside target if price loses value support. LVN secondary support: 4,275 Next support if bearish pressure expands. Major downside target: 4,262 Deeper downside target if Fed volatility strengthens the US dollar. Trading scenario Priority view: buy reaction only if 4,320 - 4,330 holds Entry: Look for buy positions only if gold holds the POC / HVN Value Support around 4,320 - 4,330 and shows clear bullish rejection. Stop Loss: Below the local sweep low or below the 4,320 support zone. Take Profit: TP1: 4,353 - 4,365 TP2: 4,390 - 4,400 TP3: Trail higher only if gold breaks and accepts above the Composite VAH resistance This setup follows the current value-support reaction. However, confirmation is very important because the Fed decision can create fast and aggressive volatility. Alternative sell scenario If gold rejects from 4,353 - 4,365 and fails to reclaim that zone, sellers may regain short-term control. Entry: Look for sell positions only if price rejects clearly from the sell zone or breaks below 4,320 and retests it as resistance. Stop Loss: Above the rejection high or above the reclaimed resistance zone. Take Profit: TP1: 4,292 TP2: 4,275 TP3: 4,262 if downside momentum continues after the Fed decision Final view Gold is sitting in a decision area before the Fed announcement. The short-term structure is trying to recover, but it is not fully bullish yet. Buyers need to defend 4,320 - 4,330 and break above 4,353 to open the way toward 4,390 - 4,400. Until that happens, every move higher can still face seller pressure. For me, the map is simple: Hold 4,320 - 4,330 = buyers still have a chance. Break 4,353 = recovery momentum improves. Reach 4,390 - 4,400 = major resistance test. Lose 4,320 = downside opens toward 4,292 and 4,275. Lose 4,275 = 4,262 becomes the next major target. Gold is not a chase market right now. It is a confirmation market. Will buyers defend the POC before the Fed decision, or will sellers use the event to force one more move into lower value?

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  49. Follow-up16 Sept, 12:03

    XAUUSD: 4,353 Holds the Recovery Door Open

    XAUUSD: 4,353 Holds the Recovery Door Open Market Context Gold is trying to recover after trading near the lowest area in more than one month, while traders remain cautious ahead of the key FOMC policy meeting. The downside pressure has slowed, but the market is not fully bullish yet. Higher Fed rate expectations and uncertainty around the policy outlook are still limiting aggressive buying. That means every recovery move needs confirmation, especially while gold remains below the main bearish mitigation zone. For now, gold is trading around 4,342. The short-term bounce is active, but the next test is clear: buyers must reclaim and hold above 4,353 to prove that this recovery has strength. Technical Structure Gold has reacted from the lower support area and is now pushing back toward the intraday decision level. The key level on this chart is 4,353. If price can hold above this level, the recovery may extend toward 4,385 - 4,400. This zone is the main bearish mitigation area and also the nearest sell reaction zone. That is where the real test begins. If gold reaches 4,385 - 4,400 and gets rejected, sellers may regain control and push price back toward the lower support area. Below current price, 4,320 - 4,330 is the nearest intraday support. Losing this area may weaken the recovery and bring price back toward the Bullish OB at 4,280 - 4,300. The deeper structure still shows bearish pressure above, so buyers need more than a small bounce. They need acceptance above 4,353 first, then a clean break through 4,385 - 4,400 to shift the short-term story. Key Levels Current Price: 4,342 Intraday Decision Level: 4,353 Nearest Support: 4,320 - 4,330 Bullish OB / Key Support: 4,280 - 4,300 Main Resistance / Sell Reaction Zone: 4,385 - 4,400 HTF Bearish OB / Major Premium POI: 4,410 - 4,435 Bullish Recovery Confirmation: Above 4,353 Bearish Continuation: Below 4,280 Trading Plan Primary Buy Recovery Scenario Entry: Above 4,353 after breakout and retest SL: Below 4,320 TP: 4,385 / 4,400 / 4,410 Condition: Buyers must hold above 4,353 with clear bullish momentum. If price accepts above this level, gold may continue its recovery toward the bearish mitigation zone. Primary Sell Scenario Entry: 4,385 - 4,400 after bearish confirmation SL: Above 4,425 TP: 4,353 / 4,330 / 4,300 Condition: Price rebounds into the main resistance zone but fails to continue higher. A rejection here would show that sellers are still defending the structure. Buy Reaction Scenario Entry: 4,280 - 4,300 after strong bullish confirmation SL: Below 4,255 TP: 4,330 / 4,353 / 4,385 Condition: Gold must show a strong reaction from the Bullish OB. This is only a support reaction setup, not a full bullish reversal unless price reclaims 4,400 with strength. Breakdown Sell Scenario Entry: Below 4,280 after breakdown and retest SL: Above 4,310 TP: 4,255 / 4,220 / 4,200 Condition: Gold loses the Bullish OB and fails to reclaim it. This would expose lower liquidity and confirm that downside pressure is extending again. Overall Bias Gold is recovering, but the recovery is still not confirmed as a full bullish reversal. The market is now testing an important intraday area. If buyers hold above 4,353, gold can push toward 4,385 - 4,400. But if price rejects from that resistance, sellers may use the bounce as another opportunity to continue the bearish structure. The most important support remains 4,280 - 4,300. Holding this zone keeps the recovery alive. Losing it would open the door for a deeper downside move. Best approach: do not chase the middle before FOMC. Wait for a clean hold above 4,353, a rejection from 4,385 - 4,400, or a strong reaction from 4,280 - 4,300. Will gold reclaim 4,353 and extend the recovery, or will sellers defend 4,400 and push price lower again?

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  50. Follow-up16 Sept, 11:13

    XAUUSD – Gold Attempts Recovery Below Downtrend Line

    XAUUSD – Gold Attempts Recovery Below Downtrend Line Gold is trying to recover from the recent low area, but the market is still trading inside a broader bearish structure. Price is now around 4,350 after reacting from the 4,279 support zone. This bounce shows that buyers are defending the lower range, but the recovery still needs confirmation because gold remains below the descending trendline and below the next resistance levels. From the market side, gold is still facing pressure from stronger Fed rate-hike expectations, elevated U.S. yields, and a firmer USD. Geopolitical risks can create short-term safe-haven demand, but so far they have not been strong enough to fully shift the technical picture back to bullish. Technical view: Gold reacted from the 4,279 support area. Price is now testing the 4,338 – 4,356 resistance region. The short-term recovery is improving, but still not confirmed. The downtrend line remains the main barrier above current price. A clean break above 4,356 may open the way toward 4,378. If 4,378 breaks, the next upside target is 4,416. If gold fails around 4,338 – 4,356, sellers may try to push price back toward 4,315 and 4,279. Key levels to watch: Current price: 4,350 Main support: 4,279 Short-term support: 4,315 Current resistance: 4,338 – 4,356 Next resistance: 4,378 Upper target: 4,416 Bearish invalidation zone: above 4,416 Main scenario: If gold holds above 4,315 and breaks cleanly above 4,356, buyers may continue the recovery toward 4,378. A stronger bullish confirmation would come only if price breaks the downtrend line and holds above 4,378. If that happens, gold may extend toward 4,416, where sellers may appear again. Alternative scenario: If gold rejects from 4,338 – 4,356 and fails to hold 4,315, the recovery structure becomes weaker. In that case, price may move back toward 4,279. A clear break below 4,279 would return more pressure to sellers and may continue the bearish channel movement. Hannah’s view: Gold is showing a recovery attempt, but not a clean bullish reversal yet. The chart is still controlled by the descending trendline, so I do not want to chase the move while price is sitting near resistance. Buyers need to prove strength above 4,356 first. Main view: gold can recover toward 4,378 and 4,416 if 4,315 holds and 4,356 breaks. If price rejects from this resistance area, sellers may take control again toward 4,279. No confirmation means no trade. Do you think gold can break the downtrend line this week, or will sellers defend 4,356 again?

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  51. Follow-up16 Sept, 11:10

    XAUUSD 1D | Liquidity, Imbalance & Institutional Price Structure

    XAUUSD 1D | Liquidity, Imbalance & Institutional Price Structure This educational Gold chart provides a detailed study of daily candle behavior, liquidity movements, institutional price structure, Fair Value Gaps (FVG), BOS, CHoCH, supply, demand and important reaction areas. The purpose of this analysis is to understand why each candle sequence creates a particular market reaction, rather than treating individual candles as isolated buy or sell signals. Early Bullish Expansion — February The chart begins with Gold recovering from the lower price region. The initial candles show relatively controlled buying, with several candles closing progressively higher. The smaller bullish candles indicate that buyers are gradually absorbing available selling pressure. As the candle bodies become larger, bullish momentum increases. A strong bullish displacement then breaks above previous short-term highs. This is important because the candle does not simply create a wick above resistance—it establishes a stronger closing position. This structural break creates the first important BOS and confirms a change in short-term order flow. Strong High Formation After the initial expansion, Gold reaches the 5,400 area. The candles near this region become more volatile. Some candles produce long upper wicks, showing that buyers continue testing higher prices while sellers begin responding. The reason the high becomes important is the combination of: Previous High + Liquidity + Rejection + Failure to Continue The subsequent bearish candles confirm that the buying momentum is temporarily weakening. FVG Development During the strong directional candles, several Fair Value Gaps are created. These FVGs represent areas where price moved rapidly and relatively little two-sided trading occurred. When later candles return toward an FVG, the reaction becomes educationally important. A bullish reaction from an FVG can indicate that buyers are defending the imbalance, while a clean breakdown through it can show that the imbalance is losing relevance. An FVG alone should never be treated as guaranteed support or resistance. March Structure & CHoCH As Gold moves through March, the candles become more mixed. Bullish candles attempt to recover previous highs, but bearish candles repeatedly appear around the upper supply region. Eventually, price begins breaking an important short-term higher-low structure. This produces a CHoCH-type transition. The key reason this matters is that the market is no longer maintaining the same sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The candle close below structure provides more information than a simple intraday wick. Bearish Displacement — March to June After the structural shift, Gold develops a prolonged bearish phase. The larger bearish candles demonstrate stronger selling pressure. Between these bearish impulses, smaller bullish candles appear. These candles represent temporary retracements because sellers continue to control the broader structure. The repeated pattern becomes: Bearish Impulse → Small Recovery → Lower High → Bearish Impulse This sequence creates multiple Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Several bearish displacement candles also leave FVGs behind, providing visible evidence of inefficient downside movement. BOS & Structural Breakdown As price continues lower, an important bearish BOS develops. The significant candle is the one that closes below the previous structural low. This is different from a candle that only briefly trades below support and closes back above it. A decisive close indicates stronger acceptance at lower prices and gives the bearish structure more confirmation. June–July Demand Formation Gold eventually reaches the lower 4,000–4,200 region. Here, the character of the candles changes. Instead of continuous large bearish bodies, candles become smaller and begin producing longer lower wicks. The reason is that sellers are still attempting to push lower, but buyers are absorbing the selling pressure. Several candles repeatedly fail to establish new lows. This creates an important demand and liquidity formation area. Weak Low & Liquidity The 3,927.190 area becomes a major structural reference. Repeated tests around the low create sell-side liquidity. A liquidity sweep can occur when price temporarily moves below an established low and then rapidly returns above it. The important confirmation comes from the candles following the sweep. A single wick does not automatically confirm a reversal; sustained bullish closes and a structural shift provide stronger evidence. August Market Structure Shift From the lower demand area, Gold begins producing stronger bullish candles. The first bullish candles establish the initial recovery. As subsequent candles close above previous short-term highs, the recovery develops into a more structured bullish move. The CHoCH/MSS around this phase indicates that short-term order flow is shifting from bearish to bullish. The important candle sequence is: Demand Reaction → Bullish Displacement → Break of Short-Term High → Higher Low → Continuation August Bullish Expansion Gold then accelerates upward. Several candles display strong bullish bodies with relatively small upper wicks. This indicates that buyers are maintaining control through the daily closes. The expansion also creates fresh bullish FVGs. When price later retraces into these areas, the candle reaction determines whether the imbalance is being respected or invalidated. September Resistance Reaction Gold reaches the 4,664–4,772 region, where the chart shows a significant supply/FVG area. The candles entering this zone begin showing rejection. Several candles have upper wicks, indicating that higher prices are being challenged by sellers. The reason this region is important is that it combines: Previous Structure + Supply + FVG + Liquidity When multiple factors overlap, the area becomes a meaningful decision zone for educational analysis. Recent Pullback After the resistance reaction, Gold begins producing consecutive bearish candles. The bodies become more prominent as price moves away from the upper supply area. However, this decline should not automatically be classified as a complete bearish reversal. The important question is whether the current bullish higher-low structure is broken. Until major support is decisively lost, the move can technically remain a corrective retracement within the broader recovery. 4,439 Decision Area The 4,439.311 region is currently an important internal structural reference. Price has reacted around this level multiple times. Bullish candles attempting to reclaim the area would indicate renewed buying interest. Bearish candles closing below it would show increasing downside pressure. The reaction of the next daily candles is therefore more important than simply touching the level. 4,347 Current Price Area Gold is currently trading around 4,347.180. The latest candles show a battle between buyers and sellers. The recent bearish candles pushed price lower, but the lower wicks around the support region indicate that buyers are still responding. This creates a short-term decision area. A strong bullish candle followed by a higher close would provide evidence of recovery, while continued bearish closes would increase the possibility of a deeper retracement. 4,263–4,122 Demand Structure The 4,263.746 to 4,122.835 region represents an important lower demand/FVG area. If price retraces into this region, candle behavior should be monitored closely. Important bullish evidence would include: - Long lower-wick rejection - Bullish engulfing candle - Strong daily close - Failed breakdown - MSS/CHoCH - Bullish displacement The combination of these signals would provide stronger confirmation than any single candle pattern. 3,927 Major Structural Low The 3,927.190 area remains the major lower structural reference visible on the chart. A future test of this area would be significant because it represents the previous weak-low/liquidity region. If sellers break below it with strong bearish displacement and daily acceptance, the previous bullish recovery structure would require reassessment. Potential Bullish Continuation Path The projected arrows on the chart represent a potential bullish scenario, not a guaranteed price path. For the bullish structure to strengthen, Gold would need to reclaim the internal resistance around 4,439.311 and then challenge 4,664.937. A confirmed daily breakout above the upper resistance region could bring the next major liquidity area around 4,772.524 into focus. Above that, the 5,179.341 region represents a major higher-timeframe resistance/liquidity reference. The quality of a breakout should be judged by the daily candle close, body strength and follow-through, rather than a temporary wick. Candle-by-Candle Reading Method This chart demonstrates that every candle should be evaluated through its relationship with the surrounding candles. A bullish candle near demand has a different meaning from a bullish candle directly underneath major supply. A bearish candle inside an established bullish trend may simply represent a pullback, while a bearish candle that breaks a protected higher low can represent a meaningful structural change. Therefore, the analysis should follow: Candle Body → Wick → Closing Position → Previous High/Low → Liquidity → FVG → Structure → Confirmation This approach helps distinguish ordinary market noise from meaningful displacement. Complete Market Structure The complete Gold structure visible on the chart can be summarized as: Bullish Expansion → Major High → CHoCH → Bearish Displacement → BOS → Demand Formation → Liquidity Sweep → MSS/CHoCH → Bullish Recovery → FVG Formation → Supply Reaction → Current Pullback → Decision Zone The key educational levels are: 5,179.341 — HTF Liquidity / Resistance 4,772.524 — Buy-Side Liquidity 4,664.937 — Supply Mitigation 4,439.311 — Internal Range High 4,347.180 — Current Price 4,263.746 — Demand Reaction Area 4,122.835 — Institutional Demand 3,927.190 — Major Structural Low The chart is designed to demonstrate how liquidity, imbalance and market structure interact with daily candle behavior. No single candle, FVG, BOS, CHoCH or level should be considered sufficient confirmation by itself. Educational Disclaimer: This chart is strictly for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and no setup, direction, breakout, target or price level is guaranteed. Always conduct your own analysis, wait for appropriate confirmation and use proper risk management before making any trading decision.

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  52. Follow-up16 Sept, 10:43

    XAUUSD — Bullish Retest Ahead of the Fed

    Fundamental Analysis Gold is recovering ahead of today’s Fed decision as the U.S. dollar softens, Treasury yields retreat and oil prices ease. Markets currently price roughly a 92%–93% probability of a 25 bp hike, which would lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. With the hike largely priced in, the bigger reaction may come from the Fed’s guidance and outlook for further tightening. Brent has eased toward $108 as Saudi Arabia offers additional crude via Oman and U.S. inventories rise, temporarily reducing some inflation pressure. Technical Analysis On H1, XAUUSD is trading near 4,348 after a strong rebound from the 4,268–4,280 demand area. Price is now testing the descending resistance trendline and the 4,341–4,353 Fibonacci 0.786–0.618 zone. This area is the key short-term decision point. If buyers defend the zone and price confirms a breakout/reclaim above the trendline, the next objectives sit near 4,368, followed by 4,378–4,394. The 4,327 structure low remains the critical bullish invalidation level. Important Key Levels 4,378–4,394 — Main target zone 4,368 — Intermediate resistance 4,341–4,353 — Main buy zone 4,327 — Key support / invalidation 4,295–4,315 — Deeper demand Trading Scenario Main Buy Setup Entry: 4,341–4,353 Stop Loss: 4,324 Take Profit 1: 4,368 Take Profit 2: 4,378 Take Profit 3: 4,390–4,394 Buy Condition Wait for the 4,341–4,353 zone to hold with bullish confirmation. A liquidity sweep, bullish engulfing candle, strong H1 reclaim, or confirmed break above the descending trendline would strengthen the setup. A sustained H1 break below 4,327 invalidates the immediate bullish scenario. Overall View The short-term H1 structure is shifting toward recovery, but price is still confronting the major descending trendline. The preferred plan is to buy only after confirmation around 4,341–4,353, targeting 4,368 and 4,378–4,394. With the Fed hike largely priced in, forward guidance may matter more than the rate decision itself for the next major Gold move. Will Gold hold 4,341–4,353 and break the trendline before the Fed decision?

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  53. Follow-up16 Sept, 10:33

    XAUUSD — 4,371 Opens the Recovery

    XAUUSD — 4,371 Opens the Recovery Gold is sitting in a very important decision area right now. Price is trading around 4,346, just below the short-term resistance zone, while the market waits for the Fed rate decision. This is not a clean bullish reversal yet, but the chart is starting to show that buyers are trying to build a recovery from the lower side of the structure. From the SMC view, the larger trend is still damaged. Gold dropped strongly from the late-August high, then moved inside a bearish correction channel. That tells me sellers still have control in the bigger picture. But price is now trying to push out from the lower part of that channel, and that is why this area deserves attention. The key short-term level is 4,361 - 4,371. If gold can break and hold above this zone, it would show that the current bounce is not just a weak reaction from the lows. It would open the path back toward the bearish FVG around 4,430 - 4,455. This is the first real test for buyers. For newer traders, the idea is simple: gold may recover in the short term, but that does not mean the full trend has turned bullish. When price is still below major supply, every rally must be tested carefully. A move into FVG or OB can become a rejection zone if sellers step back in. My main view is bullish for a corrective recovery while gold stays above the 4,326 - 4,330 support area. This level matters because price is holding near the 100-day SMA, and buyers are trying to defend that base. If the market respects this support and breaks above 4,371, the next target becomes 4,430 - 4,455. Above that, the bigger resistance is 4,480 - 4,515. This is marked as a Bearish OB / BSL Raid zone on the chart. If gold reaches that area, I would be very careful with late buying because sellers may use that liquidity to push price lower again. The wider bullish recovery only becomes stronger if gold reclaims 4,505 and holds above it. Until then, I still treat this as a recovery move inside a larger bearish structure. The 200-day SMA around 4,540 also remains a major ceiling for the broader trend. If gold fails to break 4,361 - 4,371 and loses 4,326, then the recovery idea becomes weak. In that case, price may return toward the lower part of the channel around 4,280 - 4,300, where buyers may try to react again. Key Price Zones to Watch Current reaction area: 4,340 - 4,350 First breakout resistance: 4,361 - 4,371 Main support / 100-day SMA area: 4,326 - 4,330 Bearish FVG / mitigation zone: 4,430 - 4,455 Bearish OB / BSL raid zone: 4,480 - 4,515 Major upper resistance / 200-day SMA area: 4,540 - 4,560 HTF Premium PD Array: 4,600 - 4,635 Lower demand if support fails: 4,280 - 4,300 Bullish confirmation: clean reclaim above 4,371 Stronger recovery confirmation: hold above 4,505 Invalidation: clean break and hold below 4,326 Do you think gold can reclaim 4,371 before the Fed decision, or does the market still need one more sweep lower before buyers step in?

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  54. Follow-up16 Sept, 10:05

    XAU/USD: Sell on rallies!

    Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, currently trading near $4,340. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at this meeting; market focus has shifted to updated economic projections (including the "dot plot") and the press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh. Risks of energy-driven inflation support expectations for further Fed tightening, a global bond sell-off has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5% (a high since 2007), and escalating tensions in the Middle East are bolstering the US Dollar Index—factors that may limit gold's gains. Technically, gold has peaked and pulled back on the daily chart, falling below the 20-day moving average (MA20); the short-term bullish structure has been compromised. The MACD bullish histogram is contracting, indicating some release of bearish momentum, though a one-sided downtrend has not yet formed. The RSI has retreated to the neutral zone without entering deeply oversold territory, leaving room for a potential correction of the recent decline. On the four-hour chart, bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war; heavy selling pressure follows rebounds, and bullish counter-attacks lack sufficient strength, leaving the market in a state of fluctuation as it seeks a support base. For the New York session, the key level to watch is $4,350; failure to break above this level could trigger a bearish counter-attack, whereas stabilizing above $4,350 would lead to a test of the $4,402 resistance. On the downside, watch for support at $4,300, $4,280, and $4,255. Overall Analysis: The primary recommendation is to sell on rallies. My recommendations: SELL: 4338-4345 SELL: 4387-4395 BUY: 4303-4294 BUY: 4257-4262

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  55. Follow-up16 Sept, 09:53

    XAUUSD | TRADING PLAN H1 16/09/2026

    ✅ XAUUSD/H1 Gold is currently recovering after bouncing from the 427x Support area. However, price is approaching and reacting around the Supply Zone (4339 - 4345), while also facing the descending trendline. Therefore, we need to wait for a clear reaction around this price area before setting up a trade. 1. BUY SCENARIO - Price is currently consolidating in a sideways range after the strong bullish move. If buying momentum continues and price breaks out of the Supply Zone (4339 - 4345) while also breaking the descending trendline, a continuation buy setup could target 437x - 440x. - If price fails to break out of the Supply Zone (4339 - 4345) and pulls back to the Support Zone (4300 - 4310) + FIBO, but fails to break below it and buying pressure returns, a continuation buy setup could target 432x → Supply Zone (4339 - 4345) → 440x. - If the Support Zone (4300 - 4310) breaks down, the next area to watch is the Demand Zone (4276 - 4284). 2. SELL SCENARIO - If price approaches the Supply Zone (4339 - 4345) and shows rejection, a short-term sell setup could be considered toward the current sideways range. However, caution is needed because of the strong bullish move; it is safer to wait for clearer confirmation before entering. - If price breaks out and closes a candle below the Support (4322 - 4325), a short-term sell setup could target the Support Zone (4300 - 4310). 🔴 KEY LEVELS Supply Zone (4339 - 4345) Resistance 437x Resistance Zone (4400 - 4410) Support 432x Support Zone (4300 - 4310) + FIBO + EMA Demand Zone (4276 - 4284)

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  56. Follow-up16 Sept, 06:26

    XAUUSD — Internal Supply Sell Before FOMC

    Gold is trading around $4,326 after a corrective recovery from the recent sell-side liquidity sweep. Despite the bounce, H1 price remains beneath the descending HTF trendline, and the broader sequence of lower highs continues to favor bearish delivery. Macro risk is concentrated around today’s FOMC decision. Markets are pricing roughly a 92% probability of at least a 25 bp Fed hike, while the U.S. dollar remains near multi-week highs. Gold has recovered modestly ahead of the announcement, but a hawkish Fed message could reinforce yield pressure on the metal. Oil has eased after an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories, although Brent remains above $100 and Middle East supply disruptions continue to keep inflation risk elevated. SMC View The H1 structure remains bearish below dynamic supply. The recent bullish MSS explains the current corrective repricing, but it has not yet broken the broader bearish structure. Price is now moving back toward the $4,395-$4,405 Internal Supply area. This is the nearest mitigation zone and the main location where sellers may attempt to regain control. The $4,385–$4,405 Premium Bearish OB remains the higher resistance zone if FOMC volatility drives a deeper liquidity sweep. Main Trading Scenario Sell Priority: $4,395-4,405 Condition: Wait for price to retrace into Internal Supply and show bearish rejection, failed acceptance above the zone, or a lower-timeframe bearish MSS/CHOCH. Entry: $4,395-4,405 after confirmation SL: Above $4,355 and the rejection structure TP1: $4,280–$4,295 TP2: $4,252–$4,268 Key Zones to Watch $4,395-$4,405 — Premium Bearish OB $4,330–$4,345 — Main Internal Supply $4,283–$4,318 — FVG / mitigation area $4,252–$4,268 — Internal SSL HTF descending trendline — Dynamic resistance Above $4,355 — Immediate sell setup weakens Prime Gold View The sell bias remains favored while Gold stays beneath Internal Supply and the HTF bearish trendline. A confirmed rejection from $4,395-$4,405 could reopen delivery toward the exposed sell-side liquidity below. With the FOMC decision approaching, sharp two-sided liquidity sweeps are possible, so the reaction after mitigation matters more than anticipating the first move. No confirmation, no trade.

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  57. Follow-up16 Sept, 04:42

    XAU/USD (GOLD) — DETAILED SMC ANALYSIS | SELL BIAS

    🔷 MARKET OVERVIEW Gold has been in a clear bearish structure over the past few sessions, dropping sharply from the highs near 4,400 down toward the 4,260 region, before staging a sharp bullish reaction into a key premium zone. This move appears to be a liquidity engineering play rather than a genuine trend reversal — price is being drawn up into supply before a potential continuation lower. 🟢 1. BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY (Upper Level – ~4,400) The highest liquidity pool sits above the initial swing high near 4,400. This is where resting buy stops and breakout orders accumulated after the initial impulsive rally. Price has not returned to tap this level yet, meaning it remains a magnet for future upside wicks, but it's not the immediate zone of interest for this setup. 🟢 2. BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY (Lower Level – ~4,360) A secondary, more relevant liquidity pool formed just below the first major pullback high. This zone was swept more recently as price pushed up into the BPR, confirming that smart money used this liquidity to fund the reversal down. 🟫 3. BPR (BALANCE PRICE RANGE) — ~4,320–4,340 This is the most critical zone on the chart. The BPR represents a fair-value/imbalance overlap where two opposing order flow deliveries intersect, creating a "balanced" price region. Price has just tapped into the lower boundary of this BPR, and it's acting as a strong resistance/rejection zone. A rejection from here would confirm institutional selling interest. 🔺 4. MARKET STRUCTURE SHIFT (MSS) A clean bullish MSS occurred on the internal structure around the 4,300–4,320 region, breaking the prior lower-high. This shift signaled the temporary change in short-term order flow from bearish to bullish — fueling the sharp rally into premium. However, this MSS is viewed as a corrective/liquidity-grab move within a larger bearish context, not a full trend reversal. 🟠 5. PREMIUM ZONE Marked directly above the current price action (~4,320–4,345), the Premium Zone represents the "expensive" area of the current dealing range — where price is statistically overextended relative to equilibrium. This is the ideal zone for institutional sellers to step in, aligning perfectly with the BPR and the recent liquidity sweep. 🟢 6. DISCOUNT ZONE Located below equilibrium (~4,280–4,300), the Discount Zone marks the "cheap" area of the range where buyers previously stepped in. This is the primary draw on liquidity for this bearish setup — price is expected to travel from premium back down into this discount region. ⬛ 7. ORDER BLOCK (Demand OB – ~4,260–4,280) A well-defined bullish order block sits near the sell-side liquidity sweep low. This is the origin of the last major bullish leg and represents unmitigated institutional buying interest. If price reaches this deep, it's the strongest zone for potential long-term demand. ⬛ 8. IMPULSION OB (~4,280–4,295) A smaller, more recent order block formed just before the impulsive rally into premium. This "impulsion" block is significant because it's the last footprint of aggressive buying before the breakout move — making it a high-probability intermediate target/reaction zone on the way down. 🔴 9. SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY (~4,260) Resting sell stops accumulated below the recent swing low. This pool was already swept once, fueling the bullish impulse move. It remains a key reference level — if price breaks back below the Order Block, this liquidity could be revisited/extended further downside. 🎯 TRADE THESIS Price has swept lower-level buy-side liquidity and tapped directly into the BPR/Premium Zone confluence — a textbook institutional sell zone. Expecting rejection from here, targeting a return through the Discount Zone and into the Impulsion OB / Order Block region. 📍 Entry: 4334.30 🛑 SL: 4345.50 🎯 TP1: 4325 | TP2: 4317 | TP3: 4308.50 | TP4 (Final): 4300 ⚠️ Idea shared for educational/analytical purposes only. Not financial advice — trade at your own risk and manage position sizing accordingly.

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  58. 15 September
  59. Follow-up15 Sept, 21:17

    ANZ Group — Sell Setup | 41 Before 32

    ANZ Group is currently presenting a sell-side opportunity, but the projected path is not a straight decline. The market may first move higher toward the 41 level, where the bullish phase could lose strength before the larger downside move develops toward the 32 target. The setup is based on the broader price structure, market behaviour and signals generated through my trading methodology. Rather than selling into the current position immediately, the analysis allows room for the initial upside phase before focusing on the larger bearish scenario. 📊 Setup Roadmap - Instrument: ANZ Group - Market: Australia 🇦🇺 - Primary Bias: Bearish 📉 - Initial Move: Upside toward 41 - Main Direction: Sell - Downside Target: 32 🎯 - Focus: Rejection after the initial rise The anticipated sequence is: Current area → Rise toward 41 → Selling pressure develops → Bearish move → 32 target. The move toward 41 is an important part of the overall scenario. Price could use that higher area as a point where sellers regain influence and the broader downside structure becomes more prominent. The analysis therefore separates the short-term upside movement from the larger bearish objective. The initial rise does not necessarily invalidate the sell-side thesis; instead, it forms part of the projected market path. If the price behaviour around 41 develops in line with the bearish conditions identified by the methodology, ANZ Group could then transition into a deeper decline, with 32 remaining the primary downside objective. The focus remains on reading the sequence rather than reacting to every individual candle. First 41. Then the bigger move lower. 32 remains the destination. 🎯📉🔥

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  60. Follow-up15 Sept, 07:27

    FED RATE HIKE AHEAD — SELL THE REBOUND OR WAIT FOR THE BREAKDOWN

    Gold continues to trade within a clear bearish H4 structure, with price remaining inside the descending channel and below the main trendline. After breaking below the 4,300–4,320 area, Gold is now stabilizing near 4,290, but the current position is not an area to chase the downside. The key question is whether price will produce another recovery into resistance before continuing lower. From a macro perspective, the market is heavily positioned for a Fed rate hike tomorrow. Current pricing is around 90%+ for a 25bp hike, while the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, its highest level since 2007. Rising oil prices above $100/barrel are adding further inflation pressure, strengthening the case for a hawkish Fed and supporting the USD. This backdrop remains unfavorable for non-yielding Gold. Technically, the 4,340–4,360 Demand zone is now the key recovery area. If Gold rebounds into this zone but fails to break the descending trendline, sellers could use the recovery to resume the downtrend toward 4,260–4,280 Supply + FVG, with the lower structure becoming the next major target. On the other hand, a confirmed H4 breakout and close above the descending trendline would be the first signal that bearish momentum is weakening. Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias Gold remains below the descending trendline and fails to reclaim 4,340–4,360. A rejection here could trigger another leg lower toward 4,260–4,280. Bullish Scenario A clean H4 breakout above 4,340–4,360 and the descending trendline could trigger a short-term recovery toward 4,390–4,410. However, this would initially be treated as a technical rebound rather than a full trend reversal. The important point today is: DON'T FOMO SELL. Gold has already moved deeply into the bearish leg. Lucas prefers waiting for a recovery into resistance to sell, or waiting for a confirmed break of the descending structure before following the next move. KEY LEVELS: 🔴 4,340–4,360 — Demand + trendline resistance 🔴 4,390–4,410 — Major recovery resistance 🟢 4,260–4,280 — Supply + FVG / downside target 🟢 4,230–4,240 — Deeper support BIAS: BEARISH — NO FOMO. WAIT FOR THE REBOUND TO SELL OR A CONFIRMED BREAKDOWN.

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  61. 14 September