
CPNG | Bearish Until the Protected High Breaks
By analyzing the #CPNG (Coupang, Inc.) chart on the Daily timeframe, we can see a year-long bearish structure that has just broken down again, with three untouched pools of sell-side liquidity beneath and one level that decides whether any of it reverses. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ DAILY TIMEFRAME ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The turn came in November with the MSS — the August swing low broke and the bullish structure ended. Three separate BMS events have printed since: through $22.25 in December, near $17.00 in February, and through $15.00 in September. Each one came after a consolidation that looked like a base and was not one. Price now sits at $14.40 , directly beneath the latest break and at the low of the visible range. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE LIQUIDITY BELOW ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SSL 1 — $12.61 SSL 2 — $10.46 SSL 3 — $8.97 Nothing has traded into them. A low that has never been defended isn't support, it's a target. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE LEVEL THAT DECIDES ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Protected High — $19.58 The high the sellers defended in July. Below it the bearish structure is intact. Above it on a daily close, it breaks for the first time since November. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SCENARIO A — THE BASE CASE ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Price works through the sell-side pools in sequence — $12.61 , then $10.46 , then $8.97 . This stays the higher-probability path for as long as price trades under $19.58 . ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SCENARIO B — THE STRUCTURE BREAKS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ A daily close above the Protected High at $19.58 is the first bullish break in ten months, and above it the buy-side liquidity is stacked with nothing in between: BSL 1 — $22.25 BSL 2 — $25.34 BSL 3 — $28.47 BSL 4 — $32.35 Four highs, none revisited since they formed. That is the size of the move a confirmed break opens — which is why it requires the close, not the approach. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ INVALIDATION ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ A daily close above $19.58 . The bearish case ends there, not before. And the rule that governs all of it: a break is a candle close, not a wick. The Protected High has been untouched for two months, which means it holds every stop from every short taken since July — and that is precisely the fuel a false break runs on. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Q2 2026 swung from a $32 million profit to a $570 million loss , driven by $410 million in Korean regulatory fines . Adjusted EBITDA fell to $163 million from $428 million , and the Developing Offerings segment is guided to lose $950 million to $1 billion this year. The stock is at its 52-week low with market cap down 56.2% . The other side: the business is still growing. Constant-currency revenue rose 10% , active customers reached 24.7 million , and retained customers are spending roughly 16% more year over year. The fines are one-time; the customer loss and the FX drag are not, and the market is pricing the recovery as a 2027 story. Which is why the structure hasn't turned. The fundamentals give a reason for $19.58 to eventually break — not a reason to buy before it does. This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳













